I waited a week and a half before writing this just so it doesn’t appear I just have sour grapes over the Ravens loss in New England but certain aspects of officiating in the NFL have bothered me for a long time.

Whether we like them or not the rules protecting the quarterbacks are here to stay. My problems are not so much with the rules, but the application of the rules. It seems to me that penalties for roughing the passer are far more likely to be called if there is a marquee quarterback. Do you really think the Suggs roughing the passer call against Brady would have been called against Matthew Stafford? I bet the ref would have ignored Stafford if he turned and made the flag throwing gesture that Brady made. If the rules are going to be in the books, they should be applied equally for all quarterbacks, not just the star quarterbacks. The star players are already better than most other players; they don’t need special rules making them even better.

The same goes for pass interference rules. It seems to me that a great receiver gets the benefit of pass interference calls far more than an average one. That’s not fair, if a player is interfered with, there should be a call no matter the contract or stats of the players involved.

Even worse, how often is Todd Heap interfered with and the announcers often justify it by saying that they don’t normally call that on passes to a tight end. Oh, so because of his position the rules in the book don’t apply. Yeah, that makes sense.

There are probably other rules that are applied unevenly as well. All I ask is that the rules are applied equally no matter the players involved. I think that would help the game a considerable degree.

After that maybe the refs can focus on spotting a ball correctly on a play that ended right in front of them. Baby steps.

This entry was written by ExtremeRavens member Spen.

“The Ravens are actually the worst pass defense this year against No. 1 receivers, although they end up eighth in pass defense DVOA overall because their pass rush and coverage of other wide receivers have been so strong. The Ravens have given up touchdowns to Vincent Jackson, Randy Moss and Dwayne Bowe — and No. 1s (those three and Braylon Edwards) have a 73 percent catch rate against the Ravens (compared with the league-wide catch rate for No. 1 receivers of 55 percent).” (ESPN Sunday Countdown, Contributed by Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com)

[In the words of Mythbusters, CAUTION! Stat analysis to follow!]

Schatz is using completion percentage (catch rate) to #1 receivers to evaluate the Ravens success. But that catch rate is just a bad stat. Here are final numbers for the #1 receivers in the Ravens four games so far…

• Vincent Jackson: 6 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD
• Dwayne Bowe: 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD
• Randy Moss: 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD
• Braylon Edwards: 3 catches, 35 yards, 0 TD

With the exception of Jackson, who absolutely lit up the Ravens secondary with help from Philip Rivers, the Ravens have been pretty exceptional against #1 receivers. If the catch rate is high, but the completions rate is low, that points to the fact that QBs just aren’t throwing to their #1’s against the Ravens. Thinking back to Sunday against New England, I don’t remember Moss seeing more 4 balls thrown his way. So while the catch rate for Moss might be 75%, his final numbers were still very average.

Bottom line: I’ll take a high catch-rate with low thrown-to totals every day, especially against #1s. To me, this signals that the Ravens have been especially good against #1 receivers. Maybe it’s because the Ravens are doubling them up, maybe it’s because the Ravens are game-planning well. Either way, the ball is not finding the #1 very often. And that’s a good thing for Baltimore.

When you look at the catch-rate stat this way, it turns the above argument on its head. Opposing QBs are avoiding their #1 receivers against the Ravens (Tom Brady threw to 9 receivers, the Browns to 8). And they are actually completing more passes for more yards to back-ups and check-downs. QBs are getting the ball off, and getting yards. And that leads me to believe, and anyone who’s watched the Ravens will agree, that the pass rush has actually been weaker than expected.

So, to ESPN Sunday Countdown and FootballOutsiders.com… watch the games, not the stats. Football is not a ’statistically perfect sport’ the way baseball is.

And to the Ravens? Continue to control #1’s (here’s looking at you, Chad Johnson). The others won’t do much damage.

Feelin’ Fine Ball: Ray Lewis. Because I’m feeling a fine coming his way for his post game remarks. I didn’t agree with every call on the field out there today, but the Ravens need to learn how to take their losses and the game’s circumstances and move on.

Lesson Learned Ball: Terrell Suggs. Asked post-game about his personal foul on Tom Brady, Suggs replied quietly, “it is what it is.” That shouldn’t be taken to mean Suggs liked the call, but he knows how to keep his pay check fat.

Buddy Buddy Ball: Tom Brady. Brady played a good game. But between his Manning-esque “flag wrist” asking for a personal foul and the closing shot of Brady walking off the field with the refs… I can’t help but think it. These refs know they have a job to protect the league’s stars.

Fired Up Ball: John Harbaugh. I’ve got mixed feelings on Harbaugh’s tantrum. I don’t think it cost the Ravens as much as some fans do, but there’s no way to tell. I do know that I want my coach to care enough that he’s ready to go. First time we’ve seen Harbaugh go off like that. Probably won’t see it again for a while.

Defensive Game Ball: Terrell Suggs & Dwan Edwards. Suggs sacked Brady, stripped the ball and Edwards found it in the endzone for the touchdown. That play changed the game and gave the Ravens hope.

Special Teams Game Ball: Sam Koch. Koch is arguably the league’s best punter right now. He has learned how to kick it far, but his penchant for putting it inside the 10 is what makes him truly great.

Special Teams Goat Ball: Chris Carr. Bad decision, bad execution. Carr was benched as return man, as he should have been. The question is whether he can reclaim his job. Fans don’t want to see him anymore.

Tough Team Ball: The Patriots D. They may not have been perfect, but the Patriots as a team and as a defense especially beat the Ravens at their own game most of the game. The Pats came up with big plays when they mattered and kept the pressure all game long. Credit deserved.

What a Catch! Ball: Derrick Mason. He went up, he took the hit, he came down hard and held on. Mason’s first quarter touchdown let the Patriots know that the Ravens were not too bothered by an early deficit.

Get Well Ball: Jared Gaither and Brendon Ayanbadejo. Gaither’s head/neck injury was the scariest moment of the season so far – he seemed to be lying on that field for an hour. The news is good so far for Gaither, though no word on when he might return to the field. Ayanbadejo, who last week won the league’s defensive player of the week award, isn’t so lucky. He’s done for the season, it appears.

Disappearing Act Ball: Le’Ron McClain. Not sure if McClain had injury problems or was just pulled in favor of the empty backfield, but he vanished in the second half. The Ravens could have used McClain on those short yardage situations, but McGahee got the call instead. Questionable.

Helluva Game Ball: Leigh Bodden and Brandon Merriweather. The Pats CB and S duo were all over the field. Bodden’s red zone interception of Joe Flacco was impressive and stole at least three points from the Ravens (imagine being down just three on that last drive!). Meanwhile Merriweather was in on almost every tackle it seemed, finishing with 9 total tackles and 2 passes defended.

Butter Ball: Mark Clayton. Hard to blame him for the touchdown drops – both would have been hard to catch. But easy to say ’shame on you’ for his 4th down drop to end the game. Sigh. We love ya, Mark.

1. The Ravens will score at least 25 points. My actual bet is 30 or more, but after a weak showing in the predictions game last week (or rather, missing my two hundred yard rushers) I’ll go easier. Did you hear Joe Flacco on Mike and Mike in the Morning the other day? He sounded so cool, so collected, so confident in this team’s abilities; it was astounding. Mike Greenberg even said post interview that he regretted not picking the Ravens for the Super Bowl because Flacco clearly had it all. The Patriots cannot, will not stop the Ravens as easily as they assume.

2. Randy Moss will disappear – for a half. Moss is one of the league’s greatest receivers – in history. Talent-wise, he might be unmatched. But like any receiver, he can be minimized. He can disappear. He is not a 10-reception-per-game machine, as much as he is made out to be. I think early in the game the Patriots will throw towards Moss frequently, trying to expose the height and power advantage against the Ravens secondary. As the game progresses, however, and the Ravens adjust, Moss will be quieted a bit. Brady will be relying more on his other options. Braylon Edwards disappeared last week because the Ravens doubled him all game long – think similar.

3. The Chargers will dominated the Steelers. Vicious pass rush plus dangerous offense against weak offensive line and slightly hobbled defense? Did we mention struggling special teams unit? The Steelers look completely discombobulated, and the Chargers are not a push over. No Troy Polamalu = a big day for Philip Rivers. And the Steelers offense can’t run with those boys.

BONUS!  Browns-Bengals will be closer than expected. I’m going outside of this game again, simply because I have a gut feeling on this one. I don’t know why – we certainly didn’t see any life from the Browns in Baltimore – but I think they will bounce back a bit this week at home. I’m almost leaning towards picking the Browns… hah!

Three Questions

1. Will the Ravens pass rush even matter? I’ve heard a lot of talk about the blitz schemes the Ravens are preparing and how the Patriots are planning to defend against those schemes. But two points should be made here: (1) The Ravens defense is not the Jets defense. You shouldn’t expect the Ravens to blitz like the Jets or have the same success rushing the pass. (2) The Ravens pass rush has been weak recently. I expect Greg Mattison to focus a lot more on tight plays against the receivers (fixing that problem from San Diego) than rushing Brady.

2. Can the Ravens slow their offense and eat clock? The true key for the Ravens will be to keep Tom Brady off the field as much as possible. We’ve seen the Ravens score quickly. In fact, in San Diego they were almost scoring too quickly at times. The Ravens struggled more later in the game when trying to drive the ball for longer times to keep Philip Rivers on the bench. The Ravens should be able to move the ball deliberately, but it’s not a given.

3. What put Bill Belichick’s panties in a twist? Seriously, I’ve been wondering for a while. Football is a game, not a war, not a “way of life.” Win or lose, close game or blow out, your opponents are simply opponents, and they deserve your respect. Walk across the field, shake some hands, and act like a man.

The Ravens bring one of the league’s best rush attacks to New England. Everyone should be used to this by now. Despite throwing more than they’ve run in their three games this season, the Ravens rushing attack is still ranked 5th in the league. They also lead the league in rushing touchdowns. New England’s rush defense is much improved from last year, ranking 10th in the league presently and having allowed just one rushing touchdown. But the Patriots will struggle to contain the Ravens flexible rushing attack and formidable offensive line. Edge: Ravens (+2)

Ravens Pass vs. Patriots Defense

The key to the Ravens passing attack this season hasn’t been Joe Flacco. It hasn’t really been the receivers either. Though, both groups have been outstanding and have done more than their part to help the unit along. But the key to the Ravens passing game this season has been the offensive line. The real value of such a solid line is the versatility its gives the rest of the offense: enter Todd Heap, Kelley Washington (who even knew we were allowed to have three receivers on the field at once?) and even LJ Smith last week. Add a group of rushers that can catch the ball coming out of the backfield and this passing game is hard to handle. The Patriots pass defense has been solid, but imperfect. They are short on sacks and interceptions (zero!) and are allowing opposing quarterbacks a rating of 98.4. Edge: Ravens (+1)

Patriots Rush vs. Ravens Defense

The Patriots rushing attack has always been relatively weak, especially in comparison to its vaunted passing game. The Patriots rushing game these days features long-time veteran and Ravens adversary Fred Taylor along side the younger bruiser Laurence Maroney.  And that’s not a combination to turn your nose up to. Taylor ran for over 100 yards against the Falcons last week. It’s clear that despite some early season hesitancy, Bill Belichick is moving his team back towards the run. But the Ravens defense is as good as they come against the run. Inside you meet Haloti Ngata and Kelly Gregg; anywhere else you meet one of the league’s best corps of linebackers. If the Ravens can force the Patriots to abandon the run early – as they did against New York two weeks ago – they’ll be in good shape. Edge: Ravens (+1)

Patriots Pass vs. Ravens Defense

The Patriots passing game is among the league’s best. That’s what Tom Brady and Randy Moss do for a team. Brady has been sacked just once this year, despite the talk of his “shaky” start. So it might be a bit much to expect the Ravens to be able to really get to Brady. But you don’t have to sack a quarterback to force mistakes. Even if they can’t get Brady while he still has the ball, hitting him soon after should do the trick. Downfield, the Ravens don’t have much of an answer to the Patriots receivers – at least not Moss. Moss is bigger and stronger than anyone the Ravens secondary can offer. The key for the Ravens will be to keep their speedy defensive backs in Moss’ face, and then get lots of help over the top from Ed Reed and Dawan Landry. It is possible to make Randy Moss disappear; it’s just not easy. Edge: Patriots (+2)

Special Teams

Despite early season troubles, the Ravens special teams have come around a good bit. The return game could use work, but it won’t hurt the Ravens. And thanks to Sam Koch, the Ravens can play the field position game between kick-offs.  The Patriots are equally average.  Their returners are fine, not special. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski is one of the league’s better young kickers, but you won’t be comparing him to Vinatieri or even Stover anytime soon. Edge: Even

Intangibles

The Ravens have never beaten the Patriots. … The Patriots own one of the best homefield advantages in football. … The Ravens are good on the road, but better at home.  … The Ravens though are good as underdogs, even if by just a point and a half. … National experts are leaning Ravens, local experts (even in Baltimore) are leaning Patriots… Edge: Patriots (+1)

Prediction

You’ll notice I added a plus-rating in parentheses to each edge this week – just trying it out. Not all edges are created equal, you see. By my math, the final total goes to the Ravens, +1. What does that mean, exactly? Not sure yet. But here’s what I’m thinking.

I’m thinking that I have this gut feeling that the Ravens are going to continue to score points. They have been scoring all kinds of ways this season – long passes and runs that take just second as well as long drive that can take nearly a quarter. The Ravens balance offensively is going to challenge every defense they face. It’s simple football philosophy: a defense cannot protect against everything. And right now, the Ravens offense has just about everything.

So, the Ravens are going to score. The Patriots are going to score when they have the ball as well, there’s just not much answer to Brady-to-Moss. But the Ravens are going to eat clock and keep the Pats off the field, every chance they get. And that’s something Tom Brady alone cannot fix. The Ravens win by about a touchdown. Ravens 31, Patriots 24.

Familiar why? Because they are built around a stud second-year quarterback, a dominant run game, and a stout defense. Sound familiar, Ravens? The Ravens have plenty going for them, but it won’t be easy.

2. The Ravens balance on offense gives them hope. The Ravens offensive attack this season might be the league’s most balanced. It’s not just balanced pass-to-rush. The rushing game itself is brilliantly balanced between three runners of varying styles – the speedy Ray Rice, the deceptive Willis McGahee, and the powerful Le’Ron McClain. The team may not be able to put all three on the field for every play, but each is strong enough to keep this offense moving on its own. Even in pass heavy victories against the Chiefs and Browns, the Ravens runners have made an impact.

But the real key to the Ravens success on offense is its line. The Ravens line is, for the first time ever, a good at pass protection as it is at opening holes for the running game. The Ravens can open up three and four receiver sets and truly trouble defenses.

3. The Ravens have plenty of holes. Not sure why the Ravens seem to be such favorites in this game around the country, but they are getting a lot of love. I’m not even entirely against it, but it is a bit curious. It was just two weeks ago that Philip Rivers threw for 440 yards against a battered Ravens secondary – without several starters on his offensive line. The Pats offer just as many problems: a steady, deadly quarterback in Tom Brady; a corps of tall, speedy receivers featuring Randy Moss; and a powerful offensive line that specializes in pass blocking.

If the Ravens pass rush can’t get to Brady, be wary. If the Ravens secondary can’t handle Moss, be wary. The hope for the Ravens here is that thanks to less-than-super rushing game in New England, the Ravens may be able to devote all of their efforts to the pass rush. But good luck.