“The Ravens are actually the worst pass defense this year against No. 1 receivers, although they end up eighth in pass defense DVOA overall because their pass rush and coverage of other wide receivers have been so strong. The Ravens have given up touchdowns to Vincent Jackson, Randy Moss and Dwayne Bowe — and No. 1s (those three and Braylon Edwards) have a 73 percent catch rate against the Ravens (compared with the league-wide catch rate for No. 1 receivers of 55 percent).” (ESPN Sunday Countdown, Contributed by Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com)

[In the words of Mythbusters, CAUTION! Stat analysis to follow!]

Schatz is using completion percentage (catch rate) to #1 receivers to evaluate the Ravens success. But that catch rate is just a bad stat. Here are final numbers for the #1 receivers in the Ravens four games so far…

• Vincent Jackson: 6 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD
• Dwayne Bowe: 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD
• Randy Moss: 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD
• Braylon Edwards: 3 catches, 35 yards, 0 TD

With the exception of Jackson, who absolutely lit up the Ravens secondary with help from Philip Rivers, the Ravens have been pretty exceptional against #1 receivers. If the catch rate is high, but the completions rate is low, that points to the fact that QBs just aren’t throwing to their #1’s against the Ravens. Thinking back to Sunday against New England, I don’t remember Moss seeing more 4 balls thrown his way. So while the catch rate for Moss might be 75%, his final numbers were still very average.

Bottom line: I’ll take a high catch-rate with low thrown-to totals every day, especially against #1s. To me, this signals that the Ravens have been especially good against #1 receivers. Maybe it’s because the Ravens are doubling them up, maybe it’s because the Ravens are game-planning well. Either way, the ball is not finding the #1 very often. And that’s a good thing for Baltimore.

When you look at the catch-rate stat this way, it turns the above argument on its head. Opposing QBs are avoiding their #1 receivers against the Ravens (Tom Brady threw to 9 receivers, the Browns to 8). And they are actually completing more passes for more yards to back-ups and check-downs. QBs are getting the ball off, and getting yards. And that leads me to believe, and anyone who’s watched the Ravens will agree, that the pass rush has actually been weaker than expected.

So, to ESPN Sunday Countdown and FootballOutsiders.com… watch the games, not the stats. Football is not a ’statistically perfect sport’ the way baseball is.

And to the Ravens? Continue to control #1’s (here’s looking at you, Chad Johnson). The others won’t do much damage.

With the Texans heading to Arizona this weekend to play the Cardinals, there’s been a popular storyline emerging about a match-up of the league’s best receivers. The Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald is the current ‘it’ receiver after his ridiculous playoff streak last season, while Andre Johnson has been considered one of the league’s best players on a bad team.

So who’s the best receiver in the league?

As always, for me, it depends on how you define best.

Statistically in their career? Randy Moss. In the last three seasons? Probably Fitzgerald, with Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne close behind. Biggest play maker over their career? Probably Moss again.

Biggest play maker right now? Probably a guy that’s been overshadowed by Fitzgerald recently, his teammate Anquan Boldin.

Boldin’s attitude and history of injury take him out of the equation for some, but his natural ability is freakish. He averages more yards per game than Fitzgerald and more yards after catch (far more in fact, 5.4 to Fitzgerald’s 3.6). The argument could be made that Fitzgerald has simply stolen the spotlight thanks to Boldin’s injuries.

Personally, Andre Johnson hardly figures into the equation. Johnson has made some spectacular plays and long been the Texans lone shining star. But a league star he is not. And that is taking nothing away from his monstrous season in 2008, when he averaged nearly 100 yards per game and scored eight touchdowns.

But, if you were to ask me who I would want on my team right now to build an offense around, it would be Fitzgerald. No questions asked. Raw talent, speed, smart, great route runner and little attitude to boot. Tell me I’m wrong.

Offensive Play Calling / Cam Cameron: 40%.

Dear Cam, take a look at the numbers. Your offense ran the ball just 17 times for more than 100 yards, averaging 6.8 yards per rush. Meanwhile, you threw the ball 47 times for 264 yards, averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt. What does that mean? That our rushing game was actually far more effective than our passing game.

I don’t know that anyone thought the winning team in this game would come out with fewer than 25 rushing attempts… let alone fewer than 20. The Pats, despite managing only 85 yards, ran the ball 30 times. Where was Le’Ron McClain on 4th and short?

And please don’t give me that “game circumstances forced us into a different mode.” First, the lack of balance was apparent from the first moment of the game – the Ravens managed just 7 rushes in the first half. But additionally, the Ravens were never anywhere close to being out of this game. The rushing attack should have been featured more prominently. Period. It’s been said since our Week 1 victory against Kansas City.

Third Down Penalties: 25%.

I’m doing my best to not put blame on the refs. It truly wasn’t the refs fault (at least not most of the time). But despite being stout on defensive third downs throughout the game, the Ravens continued to give the Pats second chances. The second roughing call on Brady was extremely questionable. I heard it justified with a “if Brady doesn’t move his leg, he gets hit.” I didn’t know the NFL gave out penalties for almost roughing the quarterback.

Regardless of the calls, the Ravens need to be better about keeping their play in check. The defense looked confused and overmatched at various times and penalties are a symptom of that disorganization. Good teams don’t give second chances.

Meanwhile, a big kudos to John Harbaugh for letting the refs have it on some of the game’s more questionable calls.

Mark Clayton: 15%.

I’m trying to hold off on Clayton a bit here. If the Ravens perform better earlier in the game, if they play their game for three quarters, the team shouldn’t even be in that kind of position. But regardless, Clayton dropped the biggest pass of the game.  It was a great play call, a great route and a rocket pass to Clayton’s hands. Top receivers are paid to make those catches. We’re still waiting for you to prove yourself, Mark.

Chris Carr: 10%.

Carr has yet to be anything but a disappointment on special teams this season. We haven’t seen speed. We haven’t seen agility. We haven’t seen brilliant insight or smart moves. Until today, the most we had seen was the failure to make mistakes. Oops.

Carr’s fumble on the opening kick-off set up a long day for the Ravens. Instead of walking on the field, ready to establish the game’s tempo, Carr handed that opportunity to the Patriots. And it gave Belichick an early look at the Ravens D.

Dawan Landry: 10%.

Landry looked lost on the field for the second time this season. He was confused in Week 2 by the Chargers and looked similarly bothered by the Patriots schemes. He did a fine job in helping double Randy Moss and Wes Welker at various times throughout the game, but it didn’t make up for his mistakes.

Landry’s biggest mistakes cost the Ravens. Early in the game it was a pair of missed tackles on consecutive plays, leading to a Sammie Morris touchdown. The Ravens didn’t have any points to give away today.

The Ravens bring one of the league’s best rush attacks to New England. Everyone should be used to this by now. Despite throwing more than they’ve run in their three games this season, the Ravens rushing attack is still ranked 5th in the league. They also lead the league in rushing touchdowns. New England’s rush defense is much improved from last year, ranking 10th in the league presently and having allowed just one rushing touchdown. But the Patriots will struggle to contain the Ravens flexible rushing attack and formidable offensive line. Edge: Ravens (+2)

Ravens Pass vs. Patriots Defense

The key to the Ravens passing attack this season hasn’t been Joe Flacco. It hasn’t really been the receivers either. Though, both groups have been outstanding and have done more than their part to help the unit along. But the key to the Ravens passing game this season has been the offensive line. The real value of such a solid line is the versatility its gives the rest of the offense: enter Todd Heap, Kelley Washington (who even knew we were allowed to have three receivers on the field at once?) and even LJ Smith last week. Add a group of rushers that can catch the ball coming out of the backfield and this passing game is hard to handle. The Patriots pass defense has been solid, but imperfect. They are short on sacks and interceptions (zero!) and are allowing opposing quarterbacks a rating of 98.4. Edge: Ravens (+1)

Patriots Rush vs. Ravens Defense

The Patriots rushing attack has always been relatively weak, especially in comparison to its vaunted passing game. The Patriots rushing game these days features long-time veteran and Ravens adversary Fred Taylor along side the younger bruiser Laurence Maroney.  And that’s not a combination to turn your nose up to. Taylor ran for over 100 yards against the Falcons last week. It’s clear that despite some early season hesitancy, Bill Belichick is moving his team back towards the run. But the Ravens defense is as good as they come against the run. Inside you meet Haloti Ngata and Kelly Gregg; anywhere else you meet one of the league’s best corps of linebackers. If the Ravens can force the Patriots to abandon the run early – as they did against New York two weeks ago – they’ll be in good shape. Edge: Ravens (+1)

Patriots Pass vs. Ravens Defense

The Patriots passing game is among the league’s best. That’s what Tom Brady and Randy Moss do for a team. Brady has been sacked just once this year, despite the talk of his “shaky” start. So it might be a bit much to expect the Ravens to be able to really get to Brady. But you don’t have to sack a quarterback to force mistakes. Even if they can’t get Brady while he still has the ball, hitting him soon after should do the trick. Downfield, the Ravens don’t have much of an answer to the Patriots receivers – at least not Moss. Moss is bigger and stronger than anyone the Ravens secondary can offer. The key for the Ravens will be to keep their speedy defensive backs in Moss’ face, and then get lots of help over the top from Ed Reed and Dawan Landry. It is possible to make Randy Moss disappear; it’s just not easy. Edge: Patriots (+2)

Special Teams

Despite early season troubles, the Ravens special teams have come around a good bit. The return game could use work, but it won’t hurt the Ravens. And thanks to Sam Koch, the Ravens can play the field position game between kick-offs.  The Patriots are equally average.  Their returners are fine, not special. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski is one of the league’s better young kickers, but you won’t be comparing him to Vinatieri or even Stover anytime soon. Edge: Even

Intangibles

The Ravens have never beaten the Patriots. … The Patriots own one of the best homefield advantages in football. … The Ravens are good on the road, but better at home.  … The Ravens though are good as underdogs, even if by just a point and a half. … National experts are leaning Ravens, local experts (even in Baltimore) are leaning Patriots… Edge: Patriots (+1)

Prediction

You’ll notice I added a plus-rating in parentheses to each edge this week – just trying it out. Not all edges are created equal, you see. By my math, the final total goes to the Ravens, +1. What does that mean, exactly? Not sure yet. But here’s what I’m thinking.

I’m thinking that I have this gut feeling that the Ravens are going to continue to score points. They have been scoring all kinds of ways this season – long passes and runs that take just second as well as long drive that can take nearly a quarter. The Ravens balance offensively is going to challenge every defense they face. It’s simple football philosophy: a defense cannot protect against everything. And right now, the Ravens offense has just about everything.

So, the Ravens are going to score. The Patriots are going to score when they have the ball as well, there’s just not much answer to Brady-to-Moss. But the Ravens are going to eat clock and keep the Pats off the field, every chance they get. And that’s something Tom Brady alone cannot fix. The Ravens win by about a touchdown. Ravens 31, Patriots 24.

Familiar why? Because they are built around a stud second-year quarterback, a dominant run game, and a stout defense. Sound familiar, Ravens? The Ravens have plenty going for them, but it won’t be easy.

2. The Ravens balance on offense gives them hope. The Ravens offensive attack this season might be the league’s most balanced. It’s not just balanced pass-to-rush. The rushing game itself is brilliantly balanced between three runners of varying styles – the speedy Ray Rice, the deceptive Willis McGahee, and the powerful Le’Ron McClain. The team may not be able to put all three on the field for every play, but each is strong enough to keep this offense moving on its own. Even in pass heavy victories against the Chiefs and Browns, the Ravens runners have made an impact.

But the real key to the Ravens success on offense is its line. The Ravens line is, for the first time ever, a good at pass protection as it is at opening holes for the running game. The Ravens can open up three and four receiver sets and truly trouble defenses.

3. The Ravens have plenty of holes. Not sure why the Ravens seem to be such favorites in this game around the country, but they are getting a lot of love. I’m not even entirely against it, but it is a bit curious. It was just two weeks ago that Philip Rivers threw for 440 yards against a battered Ravens secondary – without several starters on his offensive line. The Pats offer just as many problems: a steady, deadly quarterback in Tom Brady; a corps of tall, speedy receivers featuring Randy Moss; and a powerful offensive line that specializes in pass blocking.

If the Ravens pass rush can’t get to Brady, be wary. If the Ravens secondary can’t handle Moss, be wary. The hope for the Ravens here is that thanks to less-than-super rushing game in New England, the Ravens may be able to devote all of their efforts to the pass rush. But good luck.