1. The Ravens will score at least 25 points. My actual bet is 30 or more, but after a weak showing in the predictions game last week (or rather, missing my two hundred yard rushers) I’ll go easier. Did you hear Joe Flacco on Mike and Mike in the Morning the other day? He sounded so cool, so collected, so confident in this team’s abilities; it was astounding. Mike Greenberg even said post interview that he regretted not picking the Ravens for the Super Bowl because Flacco clearly had it all. The Patriots cannot, will not stop the Ravens as easily as they assume.

2. Randy Moss will disappear – for a half. Moss is one of the league’s greatest receivers – in history. Talent-wise, he might be unmatched. But like any receiver, he can be minimized. He can disappear. He is not a 10-reception-per-game machine, as much as he is made out to be. I think early in the game the Patriots will throw towards Moss frequently, trying to expose the height and power advantage against the Ravens secondary. As the game progresses, however, and the Ravens adjust, Moss will be quieted a bit. Brady will be relying more on his other options. Braylon Edwards disappeared last week because the Ravens doubled him all game long – think similar.

3. The Chargers will dominated the Steelers. Vicious pass rush plus dangerous offense against weak offensive line and slightly hobbled defense? Did we mention struggling special teams unit? The Steelers look completely discombobulated, and the Chargers are not a push over. No Troy Polamalu = a big day for Philip Rivers. And the Steelers offense can’t run with those boys.

BONUS!  Browns-Bengals will be closer than expected. I’m going outside of this game again, simply because I have a gut feeling on this one. I don’t know why – we certainly didn’t see any life from the Browns in Baltimore – but I think they will bounce back a bit this week at home. I’m almost leaning towards picking the Browns… hah!

Three Questions

1. Will the Ravens pass rush even matter? I’ve heard a lot of talk about the blitz schemes the Ravens are preparing and how the Patriots are planning to defend against those schemes. But two points should be made here: (1) The Ravens defense is not the Jets defense. You shouldn’t expect the Ravens to blitz like the Jets or have the same success rushing the pass. (2) The Ravens pass rush has been weak recently. I expect Greg Mattison to focus a lot more on tight plays against the receivers (fixing that problem from San Diego) than rushing Brady.

2. Can the Ravens slow their offense and eat clock? The true key for the Ravens will be to keep Tom Brady off the field as much as possible. We’ve seen the Ravens score quickly. In fact, in San Diego they were almost scoring too quickly at times. The Ravens struggled more later in the game when trying to drive the ball for longer times to keep Philip Rivers on the bench. The Ravens should be able to move the ball deliberately, but it’s not a given.

3. What put Bill Belichick’s panties in a twist? Seriously, I’ve been wondering for a while. Football is a game, not a war, not a “way of life.” Win or lose, close game or blow out, your opponents are simply opponents, and they deserve your respect. Walk across the field, shake some hands, and act like a man.

Familiar why? Because they are built around a stud second-year quarterback, a dominant run game, and a stout defense. Sound familiar, Ravens? The Ravens have plenty going for them, but it won’t be easy.

2. The Ravens balance on offense gives them hope. The Ravens offensive attack this season might be the league’s most balanced. It’s not just balanced pass-to-rush. The rushing game itself is brilliantly balanced between three runners of varying styles – the speedy Ray Rice, the deceptive Willis McGahee, and the powerful Le’Ron McClain. The team may not be able to put all three on the field for every play, but each is strong enough to keep this offense moving on its own. Even in pass heavy victories against the Chiefs and Browns, the Ravens runners have made an impact.

But the real key to the Ravens success on offense is its line. The Ravens line is, for the first time ever, a good at pass protection as it is at opening holes for the running game. The Ravens can open up three and four receiver sets and truly trouble defenses.

3. The Ravens have plenty of holes. Not sure why the Ravens seem to be such favorites in this game around the country, but they are getting a lot of love. I’m not even entirely against it, but it is a bit curious. It was just two weeks ago that Philip Rivers threw for 440 yards against a battered Ravens secondary – without several starters on his offensive line. The Pats offer just as many problems: a steady, deadly quarterback in Tom Brady; a corps of tall, speedy receivers featuring Randy Moss; and a powerful offensive line that specializes in pass blocking.

If the Ravens pass rush can’t get to Brady, be wary. If the Ravens secondary can’t handle Moss, be wary. The hope for the Ravens here is that thanks to less-than-super rushing game in New England, the Ravens may be able to devote all of their efforts to the pass rush. But good luck.

In Week 1, when Brodie Croyle threw two touchdowns and manufactured back-to-back scoring drives in the air, most Ravens fans and players called it a fluke, a sign of the unit’s complacency. Now in Week 2, following Philip Rivers monster 440 yard game, some of that reassuring “it won’t happen again” mentality is fading – and many fans are wondering not if it will happen, but when it will start to affect the Ravens record.

The Ravens secondary play this season should be a big concern for the Ravens and their fans. With the exception of two interceptions against Rivers on Sunday, there has been little to get excited about. The unit has been bounced in every possible way – confused by play action, outrun on deep balls, and out of position on screens and crosses.

Here are four reasons the Ravens secondary has looked so bad – things we all should have seen coming – and how to fix it.

1. Coaching. This is not a lamentation for the days of old and the return of Rex Ryan. Ryan’s secondaries were rarely perfect and often flawed, especially against good receivers and quarterbacks. But Greg Mattison certainly has plenty to work on. Luckily, Mattison has a lot to work with, as well. Mattison and John Harbaugh both noted after the game that some of the Chargers biggest and most damaging plays were the result of missed coverages and defensive confusion. This was most notable on the Darren Sproles swing pass for an 80-yard touchdown; no one accounted for Sproles. No one.

The Ravens run complex schemes, but the first rule of any defense is know your man. Mattison needs to have his entire defense in the film room all week, playbooks open and pens out. Mattison has some work cut out for him, though. Remember, most of the Ravens corners right now are cast-offs from other teams. Foxworth and Washington were both underperforming high round picks that the Ravens targeted for their speed. They are supposed to be a work in progress. The entire Ravens defense has the talent to be very good, but only if they can execute their playbook.

2. Size. Fabian Washington, Domonique Foxworth, Chris Carr, Frank Walker. All fast, all around 5′11 and 175 (some would even argue with pads on). That’s not quite Chris McAlister and  Samari Rolle. The current Ravens corners aren’t especially small, but you won’t find anyone calling them big. These corners won’t have much success chucking receivers at the line or bumping them downfield, which leads to an entirely different style of play for this secondary than most Ravens fans are used to. In their defense, Washington and Foxworth did an impressive job of staying with their coverage throughout the game on Sunday, but they simply weren’t able to make the plays when the ball game.

Is it truly good coverage if you don’t make the play, though? The Ravens corners need to learn how to run with their man and play the ball. In the Chargers later series, we saw some of this happening. Kudos to you, Frank Walker. It needs to happen more. Speed can’t be taught, but finding the ball can be.

3. The Pass Rush. Another familiar complaint from the past few years. If you hit the quarterback, he can’t throw the ball. And if he can’t throw the ball, no one can catch it. And even if you can’t stop him from throwing, maybe you can stop him from throwing it well. The Ravens front-seven needs to do more to help their secondary be effective. The Ravens actually got pretty solid pressure on Rivers on Sunday, but only when bringing the house – and eventually even that stopped working. Without the blitz, the Ravens pass rush looked handicapped against the Chargers, who were missing three (three!) starters on the offensive line. Terrell Suggs was solid throughout most of the game, but always a half-step behind, and only got through on the blitz. We haven’t seen rookie motor Paul Kruger yet because the Ravens can’t find room for him, but it may be time for that to change.

The Ravens need to find ways to get pressure even when rushing three or four. It’s that simple. Haloti Ngata takes up two men all be his lonesome, that leaves 3 or 4 on the line (depending on the alignment) to handle three Ravens rushers. That match-up should favor the defense pretty consistently. Yes, I’m looking at you Trevor Pryce and Terrell Suggs. If the current rushers cannot get it done, let’s try something new. Kruger is known for his motor, which is precisely what the Ravens defensive line needs.

4. Philip Rivers. Yup, I’m going to just plain say it. Part of the Ravens struggle was simply Philip Rivers. Where was Ed Reed? Ed Reed was all over the field. But wherever Reed went, Rivers went the other way. Rivers held this game together for the Chargers. He spotted blitzes and rushes, helping his handicapped offensive line protect him. He got rid of the ball quickly and knew when the rush was coming. And he put the ball high and out of reach of the Ravens defenders time and time again. Rivers is one of the league’s best – perhaps only Manning and Brady are better right now (maybe not even Brady right now) – and he might have the most raw talent of any quarterback out there.

So, how do the Ravens fix this? Well, don’t play good quarterbacks. That won’t work. The Ravens get Big Ben twice, Palmer twice, Manning, Brady, Favre, Cutler once each… Let’s start by just avoiding Philip Rivers. Done. We won’t have to see him until at least week 18.

Defensive Game Ball: Ray Lewis.Gotta start where it ended. Not only did Lewis make the tackle that ended the game, beautifully reading the Chargers’ blocking scheme and meeting Darren Sproles 4 yards in the backfield, but he also controlled Sproles throughout the second half. After Sproles and the Chargers abused the Ravens defense on screens and swings, the Ravens assigned Lewis the task of hawking the speedy back. In the second half, Sproles’ big screens were far less damaging. Lewis had a forced fumble, an innumerable  number of tackles, and was one of the few highlights of an otherwise forgettable defensive performance.

Two-Face Ball: Dawan Landry. It was the tale of two halves for Landry. In the first half, he needed a GPS to find his way around the field. Landry lost Sproles on the Chargers 70+ yard screen to score in the first, and found himself out of position or turned around frequently. It’s hard to deny that my mind occasionally wandered to Jim Leonhard’s spirited campaign at safety last season. But in the second half, Landry found himself and turned his game around – intercepting Rivers once and almost doing it a second time later in the third.

Winner / Whiner Ball: Philip Rivers. Apparently, if you ask Philip Rivers, Philip Rivers has never made a mistake in his life. In fact, every bad throw or incompletion in  his career is due to someone else’s pathetic play – his offensive line, the officials, good defense even! Rivers is in elite company on the field, both as a quarterback and a whiner. There were multiple throws where the only words out of anyone’s mouth could be “Wow.” But every pass that hit the ground had Rivers calling for flags, fouls and more. The Chargers young QB needs to learn that his game is good enough without being a jerk.

Still Lame Ball: Kelly Washington. Seriously, Kelly? The dancing this week was arguably worst than last week. Especially early in the game, when Lardarius Webb’s  amazing effort helped put a Sam Koch punt at Washington’s feet, and Washington, who did little more than pick the ball up, went into his full repertoire of nonsense. We also got to see Washington dance after a touchdown that nearly wasn’t and a first down that was far from special. It wasn’t until the second half we saw Washington act like a real football player – make a big catch, stare down the defense, and get to the sideline.

Offensive Game Ball: Willis McGahee. McGahee found the endzone twice early for the Ravens and averaged over 5 yards a carry. For most of the game, McGahee was getting 7-8 yards per touch, making defenders miss and running over those who made contact. McGahee is showing signs of the player everyone thought he could be coming out of Miami seven years ago, and the Ravens are thankful for it.

Homer Ball: Dan Fouts. Dear Dan, we know you played for the Chargers (and quite well) way back in the day. [Was Unitas in the league then?] But no need to make it so obvious in the booth. Apparently Fouts believes that Rivers has never made a mistake in his life either. And if there was a bigger critic of the officiating today than Rivers, it was Fouts, who stumbled, bumbled and mumbled his way to unreal descriptions of the action. CBS, keep Fouts out of San Diego.

Monsters Ball:  Jared Gaither and Michael Oher. Flacco took some heat late in the game, but the Ravens’ offensive line had the Chargers rush contained throughout most of the game. In fact, in the fourth quarter, Shawne Merriman was on the sideline with the Ravens in the red zone (still waiting for that explanation, but maybe it’s because he was a non-factor for all but one play?). Gaither and Oher had the corners locked down for Flacco to drop and pushed upfield like pro’s when the Ravens were rushing. The unit can handle the best of them.

Mighty Mini Ball: Darren Sproles. Sproles was a non-factor running the ball, but he was a monster everywhere else. He opened the day with an 81-yard reception for a touchdown and peppered in some nasty return yardage as well. The Ravens looked lost when Sproles was coming out of the backfield until Ray Lewis was put on the job. Fouts got it right one time: Sproles is a team unto himself.

Disappearing Act Ball: Ray Rice. This writer doesn’t enjoy looking like a fool. Perhaps it was just McGahee’s impressive performance that led the Ravens to keep Rice on the bench for much of the second half, but Rice was a non-factor for most of the game. He averaged more than 4 yards a carry, but only handled the ball eight times. Rice did catch five passes for more than 40 yards (doing his best Darren Sproles impersonation), but most of those yards came on two of those receptions.

Get Outta My Game Ball: The Zebras. They weren’t horrendous, but they weren’t close to good either. There were too many flags on too many questionable calls, and far too many inconsistencies among the crew. Let the players play, let the game happen. The league will be better for it. And don’t let Philip Rivers sell you anything.

Schemed-Out Ball: Greg Mattison. Maybe it was strategy. Maybe it was execution. Maybe it was just poor match-ups. But something wasn’t right about the Ravens pass protection throughout the game. Rivers is a one-of-a-kind quarterback with some big, powerful targets, but there is no excuse for allowing over 400 yards of passing offense. The Ravens secondary needs to be in the film room and in their playbooks all week long to fix what is certainly broken.

Hungry Ball: Terrell Suggs. Suggs came up big with 1.5 sacks and countless other pressures on Rivers. And at game’s end, Suggs was still dying to get one more solid lick in on the talkative quarterback.  It’s nice to see Suggs running his motor and clearly starving for the big hit and big play. Let’s just hope he’s never satisfied.

Other Notes… The Ravens are still impressive in the redzone, both offensively and defensively. The Chargers had to settle for field goals four times after having the ball deep in Ravens territory. Meanwhile, the Ravens settled for the field goal only once; they now have 7 touchdowns in 8 redzone opportunities.

1. Can the Ravens pass rush shake Philip Rivers? Rivers is used to getting hit – he’s hardly the least sacked quarterback in the league. But Rivers thrives despite his line’s deficiencies and is still one of the league’s most productive and dangerous quarterbacks. If the Ravens can’t rattle him, he’ll be in the game until the end. That’s you we’re looking at, Terrell Suggs and Trevor Pryce.

2. Can Joe Flacco eliminate the mistakes? Big mistakes are not Flacco’s big weakness. He makes small mistakes – overthrows and missed receivers – that have small consequences. But against a good team, small mistakes can turn into big mistakes. Flacco can’t be flinging the ball around recklessly on this defense.

3. Can Michael Oher and Jared Gaither handle Shawne Merriman? Merriman was a non-factor last week in Oakland for the Chargers, but it was his first full game back from last season’s injury. If the Ravens expect to be able to pass the ball, they’ll have to protect against Merriman’s attack – and the youngsters on the corner will have to do it.

Three Predictions:

1. Todd Heap will outshine Antonion Gates. It’s not just that Heap is back in rhythm, but Joe Flacco clearly knows how to use the big man. Heap will make an impact for the second straight week and confirm what many in the league have feared: he is still one of the league’s most impressive tight ends.

2. Darren Sproles will not top 50 yards on the ground. If Sproles is going to change this game, it’s going to be receiving out of the backfield and on special teams. While the “thunder and lightning” tandems have trouble the Ravens in past, the defense can handle just speed – which is all Sproles has going for him.

3.  Turnovers will rule. This game will be decided by mistakes – who makes more and when they make them. Neither the Ravens or Chargers have proved to be mistake-free yet (on offense or defense). But a big mistake or two will burn the losing team. Don’t think the Ravens can survive a blocked punt and 70-yard interception return this week.

Ravens Rush Attack vs. Chargers Rush Defense:

The Chargers defense is not quite the feared force it was growing into in 2006 and 2007. They are a decent at stopping the rush, but not superb, allowing just over 100 yards a game in 2008 and allowing well over 100 yards on the ground against the Raiders. The Chargers will struggle mightily with the Ravens multi-faceted rush attack, especially if the Ravens return to their run-oriented gameplan and control the clock. Even with limited touches, the Ravens showed they know how to use their running weapons, getting quality touches to Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and even Le’Ron McClain. We may not see any back top 100 yards on their own, but the Ravens expect to be pushing 200 yards as a team on a weekly basis. Edge: Ravens.

Ravens Pass Attack vs. Chargers Pass Defense:

The Chargers pass defense suffered last year after the loss of star linebacker (and former Maryland star) Shawne Merriman. Without Merriman for 15 games last season, the Chargers pass defense fell to 31st in the league in yards allowed and amassed only 28 sacks. But in 2007, with Merriman, the pass defense was in the league’s top half, and the Chargers were a top five team in pressuring the quarterback. Merriman appears healthy, but it’s unclear if he’s truly back on top of his game. The Ravens pass attack showed tremendous improvement in week one, but the Chiefs are about as bad as defenses come. The Ravens will have to work much harder this week to protect QB Joe Flacco, and Flacco himself will have to work harder to execute on his passes. The Chargers have 45 interceptions over the last two seasons, best in the NFL. Edge: Even.

Chargers Rush Attack vs. Ravens Rush Defense:

There aren’t many defenses that can even hold a candle to the Ravens when it comes to stopping the rush. But a tandem of good backs can change everything. Last year, it was the Giants’ with Brandon Jacobs and Danny Ware, and in the playoffs, the Titans with Chris Johnson and LenDale White. The Chargers offer up LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. A fast-and-faster version of the infamous thunder-and-lightning attack. Luckily for the Ravens, Tomlinson is hampered by an ankle injury that may keep him out of the game entirely. But Sproles proved last season that he is more than capable of handling the Chargers rush attack solo. It’s a new season, though, and Sproles will have to prove himself all over again – he rushed for just 23 yards against the Raiders. Edge: Ravens.

Chargers Pass Attack vs. Ravens Pass Defense:

The Ravens pass defense has been the unit’s true struggle for several seasons. Even with Pro Bowler and superstar Ed Reed picking off passes at his leisure, the Ravens secondary and pass rush have failed to make their mark when the game’s been on the line. A handful of speedy new corners is supposed to help, but even against the Chiefs last week, the team allowed some bigger plays than they would have liked. The Ravens pass rush still hasn’t developed as fully as fans would like either, often leaving too much time for good quarterbacks to find open receivers. And the Chargers Philip Rivers is certainly one of the better quarterbacks the Ravens will face this year. If the Ravens give him too much time, he will find an open man. And Rivers will be helped by one of the league’s biggest and most physical receiving corps, led by freak of nature tight end Antonio Gates. Once again, the good news is falling to the Ravens, though, as the Chargers will likely be without two starters on the offensive line. Edge: Even.

Special Teams:

Nate Kaeding is one of the league’s best kickers and can boot the ball as far as anyone. Darren Sproles is one of the league’s most dangerous return men. Mike Scifres regularly punts the ball over 60 yards – sometimes even 70. Meet the Chargers special teams. The Ravens? Well, there’s second year kicker Steven Hauschka, who is still earning his coach’s trust. Return man Chris Carr, who had some good times in Tennessee, but hasn’t yet in Baltimore. And the star of the group, Sam Koch, who may be the league’s most underrated punter. Edge: Chargers

Miscellaneous:

The Chargers are at home, where they’ve lost just 5 games since Rivers took over at QB. Joe Flacco, though, loved the road last season, throwing 10 touchdowns and earning a QB rating over 90. The Chargers are also notoriously slow starters, especially in their last two seasons led by Norv Turner. And as previously mentioned, the Chargers are in a bit more injury trouble than the Ravens. But homefield is homefield, and flying east-to-west has never been the Ravens strong suit. Edge: Chargers

Prediction:

It likely won’t be pretty, but as the Ravens move back to running ball more, they’ll be able to control the clock. Flacco and the passing game will still play an important role, especially in keeping the Chargers off balance. The Chargers will likely have their drives and score some points, but in classic Ravens style, they’ll bend but never break. The key will be turnovers, and a late turnover will likely decide a very close game.  Ravens 27, Chargers 23.

The Chargers present one of the most well-rounded, versatile offensive attacks in the league; they have for the past few seasons. Start with one of the league’s most dangerous running backs, LaDainian Tomlinson, add in a speedy compliment, Darren Sproles, a rifle-armed quarterback, Philip Rivers, and the league’s best tight end, Antonio Gates; it all adds up to trouble.

In fact, the Chargers offense represents everything the Ravens want their offense to be. As Ravens fans have learned over the past 13 seasons, a one-dimensional attack is easy to handle. Even if your rushing game is outstanding, a team that can only run the ball faces serious limitations. But balance – the ability to run or throw with deadly execution on any play – presents a real problem for even the best defenses in the league.

It’s the ultimate catch-22, a paradox: if you blitz the pass, Darren Sproles will be in the secondary before you’re in the backfield; if you squeeze the run, Philip Rivers will pick you apart.

The Ravens defense is not out-matched, by any stretch of the imagination. We all know that the Ravens can handle just about anyone when they are on top of their game. But that’s the key, the Ravens will have to be far more perfect in San Diego than they were against the Chiefs. Missed assignments, missed tackles, lost footing – it will all spell disaster if it happens this Sunday because the Chargers won’t let an opponent get away with it.

On the ground, the Ravens biggest challenge will be containing the speedy Darren Sproles. LaDainian Tomlinson is recovering from a number of minor injuries, including a tweaked ankle, and will likely get limited touches on Sunday, if he plays at all. But Sproles is capable of handling the ground game all by his lonesome, even against a stout Ravens defense. If the Ravens overcommit, Sproles will burn them.

But here’s where the conundrum builds. While containing Sproles may require an element of patience, containing Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ pass attack is all about the blitz. If you saw any of the Raiders-Chargers game on Monday, you saw what Rivers can do with a little bit of time – even without a corps of big name receivers. To rattle Rivers, the Ravens have to hit him and hit him hard.

Luckily for the Ravens, their saving grace may come in the form of an injury report. The Chargers are banged-up, especially along the offensive line. At present, it is looking more and more likely that they will be without a pair of starters from Monday – when San Diego allowed three sacks. Add Tomlinson to the list of questionable starters, and things are looking up for the Ravens defense.

Regardless, the Ravens defense will have to be at its very best on Sunday to contain an explosive and balanced Chargers attack.

Oh, and a few signature turnovers wouldn’t hurt either…