Three Predictions

1. The Ravens will score at least 25 points. My actual bet is 30 or more, but after a weak showing in the predictions game last week (or rather, missing my two hundred yard rushers) I’ll go easier. Did you hear Joe Flacco on Mike and Mike in the Morning the other day? He sounded so cool, so collected, so confident in this team’s abilities; it was astounding. Mike Greenberg even said post interview that he regretted not picking the Ravens for the Super Bowl because Flacco clearly had it all. The Patriots cannot, will not stop the Ravens as easily as they assume.

2. Randy Moss will disappear – for a half. Moss is one of the league’s greatest receivers – in history. Talent-wise, he might be unmatched. But like any receiver, he can be minimized. He can disappear. He is not a 10-reception-per-game machine, as much as he is made out to be. I think early in the game the Patriots will throw towards Moss frequently, trying to expose the height and power advantage against the Ravens secondary. As the game progresses, however, and the Ravens adjust, Moss will be quieted a bit. Brady will be relying more on his other options. Braylon Edwards disappeared last week because the Ravens doubled him all game long – think similar.

3. The Chargers will dominated the Steelers. Vicious pass rush plus dangerous offense against weak offensive line and slightly hobbled defense? Did we mention struggling special teams unit? The Steelers look completely discombobulated, and the Chargers are not a push over. No Troy Polamalu = a big day for Philip Rivers. And the Steelers offense can’t run with those boys.

BONUS!  Browns-Bengals will be closer than expected. I’m going outside of this game again, simply because I have a gut feeling on this one. I don’t know why – we certainly didn’t see any life from the Browns in Baltimore – but I think they will bounce back a bit this week at home. I’m almost leaning towards picking the Browns… hah!

Three Questions

1. Will the Ravens pass rush even matter? I’ve heard a lot of talk about the blitz schemes the Ravens are preparing and how the Patriots are planning to defend against those schemes. But two points should be made here: (1) The Ravens defense is not the Jets defense. You shouldn’t expect the Ravens to blitz like the Jets or have the same success rushing the pass. (2) The Ravens pass rush has been weak recently. I expect Greg Mattison to focus a lot more on tight plays against the receivers (fixing that problem from San Diego) than rushing Brady.

2. Can the Ravens slow their offense and eat clock? The true key for the Ravens will be to keep Tom Brady off the field as much as possible. We’ve seen the Ravens score quickly. In fact, in San Diego they were almost scoring too quickly at times. The Ravens struggled more later in the game when trying to drive the ball for longer times to keep Philip Rivers on the bench. The Ravens should be able to move the ball deliberately, but it’s not a given.

3. What put Bill Belichick’s panties in a twist? Seriously, I’ve been wondering for a while. Football is a game, not a war, not a “way of life.” Win or lose, close game or blow out, your opponents are simply opponents, and they deserve your respect. Walk across the field, shake some hands, and act like a man.

1. These may not be the Patriots of 2007, but they are still the Patriots. These Patriots may have lost a game early to a team they usually dominate, and they may have struggled against a questionable Bills team, but they are still the Patriots. Tom Brady is just three games in to a recovery that many times can take a full season, or more. And yet, last week against Atlanta, the Patriots we all fear showed up and dominated a familiar Atlanta Falcons team.

Familiar why? Because they are built around a stud second-year quarterback, a dominant run game, and a stout defense. Sound familiar, Ravens? The Ravens have plenty going for them, but it won’t be easy.

2. The Ravens balance on offense gives them hope. The Ravens offensive attack this season might be the league’s most balanced. It’s not just balanced pass-to-rush. The rushing game itself is brilliantly balanced between three runners of varying styles – the speedy Ray Rice, the deceptive Willis McGahee, and the powerful Le’Ron McClain. The team may not be able to put all three on the field for every play, but each is strong enough to keep this offense moving on its own. Even in pass heavy victories against the Chiefs and Browns, the Ravens runners have made an impact.

But the real key to the Ravens success on offense is its line. The Ravens line is, for the first time ever, a good at pass protection as it is at opening holes for the running game. The Ravens can open up three and four receiver sets and truly trouble defenses.

3. The Ravens have plenty of holes. Not sure why the Ravens seem to be such favorites in this game around the country, but they are getting a lot of love. I’m not even entirely against it, but it is a bit curious. It was just two weeks ago that Philip Rivers threw for 440 yards against a battered Ravens secondary – without several starters on his offensive line. The Pats offer just as many problems: a steady, deadly quarterback in Tom Brady; a corps of tall, speedy receivers featuring Randy Moss; and a powerful offensive line that specializes in pass blocking.

If the Ravens pass rush can’t get to Brady, be wary. If the Ravens secondary can’t handle Moss, be wary. The hope for the Ravens here is that thanks to less-than-super rushing game in New England, the Ravens may be able to devote all of their efforts to the pass rush. But good luck.

In Week 1, when Brodie Croyle threw two touchdowns and manufactured back-to-back scoring drives in the air, most Ravens fans and players called it a fluke, a sign of the unit’s complacency. Now in Week 2, following Philip Rivers monster 440 yard game, some of that reassuring “it won’t happen again” mentality is fading – and many fans are wondering not if it will happen, but when it will start to affect the Ravens record.

The Ravens secondary play this season should be a big concern for the Ravens and their fans. With the exception of two interceptions against Rivers on Sunday, there has been little to get excited about. The unit has been bounced in every possible way – confused by play action, outrun on deep balls, and out of position on screens and crosses.

Here are four reasons the Ravens secondary has looked so bad – things we all should have seen coming – and how to fix it. Read the rest of this entry »

Yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes. Pulled that one out. Nice game on both sides, scary on both sides, impressive on both sides. Ravens sneak by.

Defensive Game Ball: Ray Lewis.Gotta start where it ended. Not only did Lewis make the tackle that ended the game, beautifully reading the Chargers’ blocking scheme and meeting Darren Sproles 4 yards in the backfield, but he also controlled Sproles throughout the second half. After Sproles and the Chargers abused the Ravens defense on screens and swings, the Ravens assigned Lewis the task of hawking the speedy back. In the second half, Sproles’ big screens were far less damaging. Lewis had a forced fumble, an innumerable  number of tackles, and was one of the few highlights of an otherwise forgettable defensive performance.

Two-Face Ball: Dawan Landry. It was the tale of two halves for Landry. In the first half, he needed a GPS to find his way around the field. Landry lost Sproles on the Chargers 70+ yard screen to score in the first, and found himself out of position or turned around frequently. It’s hard to deny that my mind occasionally wandered to Jim Leonhard’s spirited campaign at safety last season. But in the second half, Landry found himself and turned his game around – intercepting Rivers once and almost doing it a second time later in the third.

Winner / Whiner Ball: Philip Rivers. Read the rest of this entry »

Three Questions:

1. Can the Ravens pass rush shake Philip Rivers? Rivers is used to getting hit – he’s hardly the least sacked quarterback in the league. But Rivers thrives despite his line’s deficiencies and is still one of the league’s most productive and dangerous quarterbacks. If the Ravens can’t rattle him, he’ll be in the game until the end. That’s you we’re looking at, Terrell Suggs and Trevor Pryce.

2. Can Joe Flacco eliminate the mistakes? Big mistakes are not Flacco’s big weakness. He makes small mistakes – overthrows and missed receivers – that have small consequences. But against a good team, small mistakes can turn into big mistakes. Flacco can’t be flinging the ball around recklessly on this defense.

3. Can Michael Oher and Jared Gaither handle Shawne Merriman? Merriman was a non-factor last week in Oakland for the Chargers, but it was his first full game back from last season’s injury. If the Ravens expect to be able to pass the ball, they’ll have to protect against Merriman’s attack – and the youngsters on the corner will have to do it.

Three Predictions:

1. Todd Heap will outshine Antonion Gates. It’s not just that Heap is back in rhythm, but Joe Flacco clearly knows how to use the big man. Heap will make an impact for the second straight week and confirm what many in the league have feared: he is still one of the league’s most impressive tight ends.

2. Darren Sproles will not top 50 yards on the ground. If Sproles is going to change this game, it’s going to be receiving out of the backfield and on special teams. While the “thunder and lightning” tandems have trouble the Ravens in past, the defense can handle just speed – which is all Sproles has going for him.

3.  Turnovers will rule. This game will be decided by mistakes – who makes more and when they make them. Neither the Ravens or Chargers have proved to be mistake-free yet (on offense or defense). But a big mistake or two will burn the losing team. Don’t think the Ravens can survive a blocked punt and 70-yard interception return this week.

Ravens Rush Attack vs. Chargers Rush Defense:

The Chargers defense is not quite the feared force it was growing into in 2006 and 2007. They are a decent at stopping the rush, but not superb, allowing just over 100 yards a game in 2008 and allowing well over 100 yards on the ground against the Raiders. The Chargers will struggle mightily with the Ravens multi-faceted rush attack, especially if the Ravens return to their run-oriented gameplan and control the clock. Even with limited touches, the Ravens showed they know how to use their running weapons, getting quality touches to Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and even Le’Ron McClain. We may not see any back top 100 yards on their own, but the Ravens expect to be pushing 200 yards as a team on a weekly basis. Edge: Ravens.

Ravens Pass Attack vs. Chargers Pass Defense: Read the rest of this entry »

There are only a handful of teams in the NFL who can create a little worry for the Ravens defense, and the San Diego Chargers should be one of them. Any other given week, the key to a Ravens victory will lie almost entirely on the offense, but not when an attack as balanced and dangerous as the Chargers presents itself.

The Chargers present one of the most well-rounded, versatile offensive attacks in the league; they have for the past few seasons. Start with one of the league’s most dangerous running backs, LaDainian Tomlinson, add in a speedy compliment, Darren Sproles, a rifle-armed quarterback, Philip Rivers, and the league’s best tight end, Antonio Gates; it all adds up to trouble.

In fact, the Chargers offense represents everything the Ravens want their offense to be. As Ravens fans have learned over the past 13 seasons, a one-dimensional attack is easy to handle. Even if your rushing game is outstanding, a team that can only run the ball faces serious limitations. But balance – the ability to run or throw with deadly execution on any play – presents a real problem for even the best defenses in the league.

It’s the ultimate catch-22, a paradox: if you blitz the pass, Darren Sproles will be in the secondary before you’re in the backfield; if you squeeze the run, Philip Rivers will pick you apart.

The Ravens defense is not out-matched, by any stretch of the imagination. We all know that the Ravens can handle just about anyone when they are on top of their game. But that’s the key, the Ravens will have to be far more perfect in San Diego than they were against the Chiefs. Missed assignments, missed tackles, lost footing – it will all spell disaster if it happens this Sunday because the Chargers won’t let an opponent get away with it.

On the ground, the Ravens biggest challenge will be containing the speedy Darren Sproles. LaDainian Tomlinson is recovering from a number of minor injuries, including a tweaked ankle, and will likely get limited touches on Sunday, if he plays at all. But Sproles is capable of handling the ground game all by his lonesome, even against a stout Ravens defense. If the Ravens overcommit, Sproles will burn them.

But here’s where the conundrum builds. While containing Sproles may require an element of patience, containing Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ pass attack is all about the blitz. If you saw any of the Raiders-Chargers game on Monday, you saw what Rivers can do with a little bit of time – even without a corps of big name receivers. To rattle Rivers, the Ravens have to hit him and hit him hard.

Luckily for the Ravens, their saving grace may come in the form of an injury report. The Chargers are banged-up, especially along the offensive line. At present, it is looking more and more likely that they will be without a pair of starters from Monday – when San Diego allowed three sacks. Add Tomlinson to the list of questionable starters, and things are looking up for the Ravens defense.

Regardless, the Ravens defense will have to be at its very best on Sunday to contain an explosive and balanced Chargers attack.

Oh, and a few signature turnovers wouldn’t hurt either…