He’s not getting the most blame – and he doesn’t deserve the most blame – but someone has to say it. And I will if I have to…

Steven Hauschka: 30%

Like it or not… when you need a field goal to win, a very makeable field goal, in a dome, with no wind or other issues… it needs to be made. That’s the end of it. The end. There’s nothing more to say. Clutch or not. Last minute or not. Field goals matter at all times; this one happened to determine the outcome of the game. Haushcka has to make the kick. The end. Throw blame everywhere else for our position up to that point, but Hauschka  has to make the kick.

In the words of a friend, let’s call it “poetic justice.” The minute Stover is picked up elsewhere, the makeable kick is missed. In all honesty, I love Hauschka and all that he brings to the table… but I was probably giving him better odds than most when I was thinking “this is 50-50…”

Ravens Secondary: 60%

Domonique Foxworth, Fabian Washington, Dawan Landry, Chris Carr, Lardarius Webb, Frank Walker. Frank f’n Walker. We’re looking at you. For the fourth time in six games you all looked worse than bad. You were pathetic. I’m not holding back anymore. I don’t know if you’re just confused or if you simply don’t have the ability, but you are the reason this defense is crumbling. Even the 100-yard rushers connect back to you.

Seriously, Frank, what are you doing? Is it even possible for you to be on the field and NOT have a flag thrown at you. Or not have the QB single you out? And Dawan… on yet another big play you looked absolutely lost. In fact, on one of Favre’s late TDs you almost seemed to be telling Brett to throw it to the man you were simply refusing to cover. Get it together.

Coaching: 10%

The Ravens defensive woes are not solely the fault of the players or the greatness of the opposing offense. Greg Mattison needs to find a way to get this unit to work together. Maybe it’s about getting Samari Rolle on the field. Maybe it’s about getting Paul Kruger on the field. Maybe it’s about play-calling. Whatever it is, do it.

Mattison has been unable to adjust his schemes and his plays to the needs of his players and the strengths of his opponents. Apparently the Ravens are just too easy to read.

Even offensively, Cam Cameron took long enough to find his groove. Had the Ravens started showing life just one possession earlier, perhaps that last kick is less necessary. Nice recovery, though, of course.

Ravens Rush vs. Vikings Defense: The Ravens can run the ball, or so I believe. But the Bengals managed to stop them and they’ve chosen not to run against other opponents. Put that against the Williams crew and the only rush defense that can rival the Ravens. Edge: Even

Ravens Pass vs. Vikings Defense: The loss of Jared Gaither might be hurt more than expected, especially with Jared Allen rushing the corner. The Vikings are talented but Joe Cool and the Ravens can win the match-ups if given time. Edge: Even

Vikings Rush vs. Ravens Defense: The Ravens gave up 100 yards to a single back for the first time in nearly 40 games last week. If there’s any back I fear being able to do that again, it’s probably the Vikings Adrian Peterson. But the Ravens can shut him down if they play up to their ability. Edge: Even

Vikings Pass vs. Ravens Defense: Brett Favre has been throwing the ball like a 35 year old recently (sorry, mandatory age joke taken care of). The Vikings still plan to keep the ball out of Favre’s hands as much as possible though. The Ravens D needs a good rush and a pick-me-up game. Edge: Even

Special Teams: The Ravens are still seeking a solid return man (perhaps Ladarius Webb will get more than a pair of returns this week). Ravens punter Sam Koch continues to make a bid for team MVP (like on most Ravens teams). The Vikings are solid all around. Ryan Longwell is a great veteran kicker. Young’n Percy Harvin is making a splash on returns. The Ravens must contain him.  Edge: Even

Micellaneous: The Ravens have lost two straight (about the same time they lost three straight last year, eh?)… Joe Flacco is still Mr. Unshakable on the road… The Vikings have one of the best home field advantages in the league thanks to the dome… The Vikings are one of five unbeatens left in the league… The combined record the Vikings opponents is 7-17. Edge: Vikings (+1)

Official Prediction

This is about as even as two teams are going to match-up in the NFL; they literally go strength-for-strength, player-for-player. A pair of nice defenses, great running games and a great quarterback match-up. In fact, I’m surprised there isn’t more talk about Flacco and Favre. C’mon, both F names, both undervalued coming out of college… right? Ok, stretch. But Flacco is emerging as one of the game’s best and Favre is trying to hold his value.

This is almost too close to call. I want to believe the Ravens will win this game (and they certainly can if they play to their strengths), but it’s hard to pick a team that has faded in the stretch for two straight games. The Ravens will play well, but it won’t be enough. The rebound will have to wait until after the bye. Vikings 23, Ravens 20.

Brett Favre: He’s not even the most important piece on this team, but he has shown several times this season what he’s capable of. The game-winning throw in Week 3 against the 49ers was the manifestation of every fear we need to have about Favre.

Adrian Peterson: Stat for stat, pound for pound, yard for yard: there is no better back in the league right now. The Ravens struggled against the Bengals and Cedric Benson, and Peterson outdoes Benson is just about every way.

Big Receivers: Bernard Berrian is the vet and is 6’1. The rookie Percy Harvin is the leading receiver and is 5’11. But the real threat to the Ravens is the young gun with a few seasons under his belt, Sidney Rice, who comes in at 6’4. All three can burn.

EJ Henderson: The former Terp doesn’t get enough credit for his presence and power in the Vikings defense. He leads the defense in tackles and his impact his felt on every play, just like a certain Raven we know.

Jared Allen: The country wonderboy has 6.5 sacks and last week returned a fumble for a touchdown. Allen is in his prime and can rush with the best of them.

The Williams Brothers: Overlooked so far this season, the big boys in the middle of the Vikings defense stuff the run, put a good push on pass plays and keep the rest of the defense free to do the fun stuff.

All in all… It’s a pretty overwhelming roster to glance at. Some of the names might not be as big as others, but the numbers are all there. I wasn’t buying into the all the hype preseason – and I’m still not sure this is “the best team Favre’s ever been on” – but they have been seriously impressive over the season’s first five games. They boast the only rush defense in the league that can rival the Ravens and pair it with perhaps the league’s best rushing attack. Those two statements alone make them one of the league’s toughest teams.

The Ravens will have to win this game by shutting down Adrian Peterson and forcing Brett Favre into his occasionally woeful ways.

Baltimore Ravens (3-2): The Ravens have had a pretty funky fall from grace in the last two weeks. They had a chance to win in New England on the final drive, but failed. They also had plenty of chances to close out the Bengals (in a game the Ravens had no business winning), but failed there as well. If the Ravens win either of these games, no one even gives a second thought to how “real” the Ravens are. But they didn’t win. And that’s all there is to it. The road ahead is no easier and the Ravens need to establish a team identity and fast. Even the Bengals have one right now, even if its as silly as “winning every game in the final minute.” Next Game: @ Minnesota (5-0)

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2): The Steelers snuck by the Lions on Sunday. A lot of people are claiming it’s nothing to even think twice about because it looked like the Steelers we all know – the game looks close, but Pitt is always in control. But I’ve got to wonder how in control the Steelers really were. The defense is coming around, but still not entirely healthy – and they won’t be until Troy Polamalu returns. Meanwhile, Big Ben and his pick-six parties are getting old in Pittsburgh. Next Game: vs. Cleveland (1-4)

Cleveland Browns (1-4): For a long while on Sunday I thought I was watching the worst football game ever played (I was watching the Ravens). Then I happened to notice the Browns-Bills game. A game that finished 6-3 Browns and a winning quarterback who completed just 2 of 17 pass attempts. That’s right, the Browns totaled 23 pass yards on 2 completed passes the whole game. And won. Brutal. The NFL has some very, very bad teams right now. The Browns are among the worst of them. Next Game: at Pittsburgh (3-2)

Thumbs Up!

Chad Ochocinco: As much as I hate to admit it, the man was all over the field against the Ravens. His fumble and whining were silly, but he was beating the Ravens every play.

Ed Reed: That’s the Ed Reed we’re all used to seeing. Hope we see more of him too.

James Harrison: The Steelers pass rushing machine was off to a slow start. It might have been the Lions, but the three sacks still count.

Thumbs Down

Derek Anderson: Seriously, Anderson is supposed to be the improvement now? (This just in: Brady Quinn put his Cleveland home up for sale)

Ravens Secondary: Demolished for the third time this season and little hope in sight – except maybe for a Brett Favre bad day.

Brad St. Louis: The Bengals long-snapper botched two more snaps Sunday against the Ravens. Luckily for him only one really made a difference. He’s been cut.

Ben Roethlisberger: Up for playing well, down for throwing big interceptions. Against a better team, a pick-six costs more.

Three Storylines to Follow

Can the Bengals Keep It Up? Houston may not look like the biggest baddest opponent on the horizon, and I’ve never bought into any of the “this is Houston’s year” silliness we hear each fall, but they are not a team that’s easy to walk over. The Bengals defense will have their work cut out for them. I expect a shootout in Cincy.

Can the Ravens Rebound? It’s kind of funny to hear people ask if the Ravens can bounce back and say that John Harbaugh has never faced this situation before. Not quite. Last year, remember, the Ravens lost three straight to three very good teams before going 9-2 the rest of the season. The better question is WHEN will the Ravens rebound, because it’s not until they see the Browns in Week 10 that the Ravens get a reprieve (Minnesota is 5-0, Denver is 5-0, Cincinnati is 4-1).

Three Playoff Teams? It seems highly unlikely. In fact, it is highly unlikely. Incredibly improbably. But look around a bit. The AFC South and AFC West both appear to be one team divisions. No one else even looks competitive. Then in the AFC North and AFC East, you’ve got three competitive teams in each. It’s somewhat unknown just how good the Jets and Dolphins truly are this year – and they get to face the Bengals and Steelers, respectively. Could all three AFC North contenders find their way to the post season? With a little help from New England, maybe.

And not just once. Not just twice. But three times over in the fourth quarter when it mattered most. Surprising in part because just last year Rex Ryan and the Ravens dominated the Dolphins in Miami twice, and the Wildcat was declared extinct.

Everyone’s vulnerable. It’s about making adjustments. The Ravens problems, but they have plenty to work with. It’s just not guaranteed. It takes time, it takes effort. There is a learning curve. Have patience.

So far the most popular answer I’ve heard is the Ravens “weak” secondary. Just about everyone is pointing to a secondary that has allowed big numbers to big names. From Foxworth’s lack of physicality to Carr’s stumbles to Walker’s penalties.

In reality, we should be placing blame on every single Ravens player and coach that took the field on Sunday. They all failed. They all had opportunities and they all missed them. What we saw yesterday was exactly the opposite of the sharp, smart and dangerous Ravens teams we have come to know and love.

Following a nasty loss in New England last week, everyone expected the Ravens to bounce back with a vengeance and obliterate the Bengals. Instead, we got a lackluster effort. We got a team that looked too comfortable for its own good and then uncomfortable when it mattered most.

For me, it all starts with coaching. As a team, the Ravens were not ready to play yesterday. Whether it was complacency or disinterest or lack of focus, the Ravens did not walk into M&T Bank Stadium like a team that was ready to win that game. And that falls on the shoulders of John Harbaugh and his staff. No matter how good the Ravens may have looked in week’s past, it is the staff’s job to make sure they are ready to go on gameday. They weren’t.

You could tell on the first few series – the Ravens simply didn’t have their heads in the game. They looked bored.

But aside from the team’s overall lack of intensity, each unit lacked focus and discipline individually.

Offensively, the entire group looked disjointed. I am still unsure of any of Cam Cameron’s game plans. While the Ravens have been impressive at times, they don’t have an offensive identity. After criticism last week for being too pass-happy, it seemed that Cameron came down too far. The Ravens offense was predictable.

The Bengals defense is far improved from years past, but they are not spectacular. The Ravens should have been able to exploit some weaknesses, but they didn’t. That falls on Cameron.

Defensively, everyone is happy to point fingers at the Ravens secondary. And yes, the group has been a weak point this season. Unfortunately, mid-season, there is not a lot to be done about personnel. We’re stuck with who we’ve got. What bothers me more than our personnel failure has been Greg Mattison’s inability to adjust his defensive schemes to help his personnel.

The Ravens shifted their secondary personnel over the last two seasons – away from physicality and towards speed. That’s okay, actually. But you can’t expect a speedy corner to play like a physical corner. Washington, Foxworth and Carr cannot just overpower good receivers, they have to outsmart them. All three corners (four including Frank Walker) have done a fine job running with their man most games – but they have failed at making plays. Foxworth tried his best on Sunday, mauling Chris Henry to draw a pass interference call, and Henry still made the catch and ran 50 yards.

It is up to Mattison and his staff to find a scheme that works for these defensive backs. That’s going to mean teaching them how to find and play the ball, not the man. The Ravens will lose 9 times out of 10 if their DBs try to play the man. And up front, Mattison needs to find a scheme or a personnel package that is able to pressure the quarterback and assist the secondary.

On all three levels of the coaching pyramid the Ravens looked outmatched. It’s not a nice feeling, nor one I want to get used to. The Ravens have the talent – on the field and on the sidelines – to win every game they play. Both sides need to work to make that real.

Offensive Game Ball: Ray Rice. Rice ran fairly well behind an overpowered offensive line and made the offense’s biggest play for its only score. Without him, the Ravens offense doesn’t put a point on the board.

Defensive Game Ball: Ed Reed. Reed played his best game of the year – and it wasn’t just the pick-six or the forced fumble. He actually made some tackles: real tackles, not the kind where he went low to protect himself.

The Half-Assed Ball: Everyone Else. The Ravens were outplayed in every aspect of this game (except long-snapper play). There can be no excuses. The Ravens are better than what they showed yesterday. They have to learn that it’s not just about being a favorite and having the right pieces – you actually have to show up on Sunday.

Next week in Minnesota will be the key… but I expect a very different Ravens team to show up in Cincinnati in a few weeks.

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Ravens Rush vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals rush defense ranks 14th in the league allowing just over 100 yards per game. The Ravens rushing attack is 5th in the league topped 100 yards against the Patriots on just 17 carries. The real question is whether the Ravens will run or not. The Ravens lack of rushing attempts has hurt them several times this season (even in victories). And in limited attempts, stuffing the box on short yardage is that much easier (as the Pats showed). Edge: Ravens +1

Ravens Pass vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals pass rush has been excellent this year, especially from newly signed Antwaan Odom, who leads the NFL with 8 sacks. As a team, the Bengals have 12 sacks, putting them close to the top of the league. With Jared Gaither unlikely to play for the Ravens, rookie Michael Oher will move to the left side and handle Odom. If the Ravens can contain Odom, they have a good shot. Despite all the pressure, the Bengals have just two interceptions and are 24th in the league in pass defense. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Rush vs. Ravens Defense

Cedric Benson has been one of the league’s strongest runners for the last 10 weeks. No, really. Cedric Benson. But even so, Benson is no match for the Ravens top-ranked rush defense, which is showing true signs of greatness (under 60 yards on the ground per game). The Ravens will have to work to contain Benson and the Bengals, but not too hard. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Pass vs. Ravens Defense

The Bengals passing attack is not the monster it once was, but it is still a weapon. Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson are a dangerous combination when they get on the same page. Lucky for the Ravens, their defense has shown the ability to shut down a single big receiver when necessary. The Ravens will double Johnson and minimize his impact… they hope. The bigger question is can the Ravens force Palmer into making mistakes? He’s not a mistake-prone kind of guy. Edge: Even

Special Teams

Both units have been pretty sad. The Ravens have improved their kick coverage dramatically and their punt game is fantastic, but their returns have been weak and costly. The Bengals bring one of the league’s worst return defenses to Baltimore, opening up the possibility for some big plays. Edge: Even

Intangibles

The Ravens are great at home… the Bengals have been good at coming from behind and closing out games late, and they’ve done it before against the Ravens… the Ravens are hot after last week’s close loss to the Pats… the Bengals have been winning games they don’t deserve to win… Hmmm Edge: Ravens (+.5)

Prediction

My edge game has the Ravens +3.5… which, using this entirely not scientific or even empirical method, should mean a big win for the Ravens. The Ravens look to be the better team in every facet of their game. That might be purely based on match-ups (maybe the Bengals just match-up better against the Steelers for some reason?) or it might be that the Bengals don’t fit my match-ups mold. I don’t think the Bengals fit anyone’s molds. Their so close to 4-0 and in such crazy ways. That scares me.

Ravens 37, Bengals 13

1. Carson Palmer can beat the Ravens.

The Carson Palmer of 2009 may not be in the same form we’ve come to know, but he is still Carson Palmer. And Carson Palmer has the ability to throw the ball all over the Ravens when he’s feeling good. He’s done it before.

Overall, in nine games against the Ravens, Palmer has a quarterback rating of 87.6 with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Not outstanding, but not shabby either.

But those numbers are skewed a bit. Palmer either plays his best or his worst against Baltimore. Palmer has six games against the Ravens with a QB Rating over 90 – in four of those games his QB rating is well over 100. In the other three games, his rating is under 60. There’s no middle ground.

Again, this year’s Palmer may not be able to do that – the Bengals are not the offensive force they once were. But if he’s done it before, he can do it again.

2. The Bengals are… Special.

Special. That’s a nice way to put it, right? The Bengals are 3-1, and short of a fluke play in Denver in Week One, they would be undefeated. Against the Broncos, Packers and Steelers, that’s impressive.

But the Bengals have also been, well, special. They’re three wins are by a combined 13 points. Their last two games were won by the same score, 23-20, and both with late game-saving touchdown drives.

Statistically, they’re completely average: 21st in total offense and 17th in total defense. Technically, that’s almost worse than average. And all despite starting “so strong” defensively.

Even Chad Johnson has been ‘special’ this season. Two touchdowns last week but just three total catches. He’s been in and out all season long.

So what does all this mean? Um… not sure. It means that the Bengals winning games the hard way, but they are still winning games. So take it easy.

3.The Ravens Rebound.

For the first time this season the Ravens are playing after a loss. They’re also playing after a bit of a sour loss. The Ravens generally held their own in New England, but plenty of short-comings were exposed.

A good Ravens victory this week should have a number of changes from last week… (1) more rushing, , (2) improved returns, (3) a terrorizing defense in-control of itself.

That last one is the one to really keep an eye on. Can the Ravens continue to harass quarterbacks while keeping control of the penalties? If they relent, will the defense still be able to control opposing offenses?

I guess the bottom line here is that we are still waiting for an absolutely complete game from the Ravens – against someone other than the Browns. The Bengals provide that opportunity. Can the Ravens take it?

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1): The Bengals barely escaped the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday, winning in overtime on a Shayne Graham field goal. Still curious how the Bengals failed to run away with the game, though, as they had a big lead early following a series of Cleveland turnovers. Also wondering what kind of team lets the Browns back into it. Next Game: @ Ravens (3-1)

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2): Statement game by the Steelers… almost. The offense hit a new level on the back of Rashard Mendenhall. Proves that with a running game, every team looks better. Roethlisberger is still playing too well for his own good. But for another week the fourth quarter was trouble and the defense is not closing games out. Next Game: @ Detroit (1-3)

Cleveland Browns (0-4): The Browns showed some signs of life on Sunday, taking the Bengals to the wire. It was an unusual game: the Browns looked lost in the first half and then should have won in the second, but they let it slip away. This team will continue to struggle, but they aren’t the league’s worst. Next Game: @ Buffalo (1-3)

Thumbs Up:

Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben threw for over 300 yards for the second time this season and didn’t throw an interception for the first time this season. He has been playing too well for the Steelers to be just 2-2.

Rashard Mendenhall: Mendenhall ran for 165 yards and two touchdowns, proving that the Steelers still have a running game (sometimes) and that Mendenhall deserves his carries (when he behaves).

Jerome Harrison: The Browns new starter in the wake of Jamal Lewis’ injury has been impressive in two starts. In Baltimore he broke 50 yards on limited carries, and against Cincinnati he topped 120.

Terrell Suggs: Played well, made a game-changing play for a touchdown in the Ravens loss to the Pats, and learned how to keep his mouth shut post game.

Thumbs Down

Ravens Receivers: After a stellar start to the game, including six receptions by Derrick Mason on the team’s first scoring drive, the Ravens receivers disappeared. Dropped passes galore.

AFC North Special Teams: Kickers, returners, punters… they’ve all been bad with few exceptions. This week it was Shayne Graham’s blocked extra point to send Browns-Bengals in overtime; Chris Carr fumbling on the opening kickoff in New England; and Stefan Logan’s fumble on a punt return. Oh, and that doesn’t include the Steelers botching an opportunity to recover an onside kick attempt by the Chargers.

Chad Ochocinco: Hard to give a thumbs down to a guy that caught two touchdown passes… but when you only catch three passes for 24 yards against a more than suspect pass defense, you’re not brag-worthy.

Three Issues:

Who’s Number One? The Bengals and Ravens face off for early supremacy in the AFC North. With the Bengals already having an edge on the Steelers, taking the one-game lead on the Bengals would be extra helpful for the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Bengals are trying to prove they belong in the conversation.

Is this division still about defense? The Ravens and Steelers are both turning heads for their offensive prowess and both have become suspect defensively. The Ravens are third in points per game and total offense, the Steelers sixth in total offense. And while Cleveland and Cincinnati have both had offensive struggles, they are both improving. For most of this decade, the AFC North was the hardest hitting division in the NFL… are they losing their edge?

Can they really win? The Browns go to Buffalo and have a chance at their first win of the season against a struggling Bills team. The Browns offense looked poised to break out against the Bengals and against a weaker Bills defense they might be able to. If the Browns get rolling on offense, they won’t be quite as much fun to play.