Centers Matter

Written by Dan McGrainNo Comments »

ESPN has a piece up today by Jeffri Chadiha about the emergence of centers as the new stars of NFL offensive lines. It’s an interesting read, and the Ravens feature prominently throughout the article. It includes a good few notes from Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome on how the 3-4 is changing offensive play in the league, but other Ravens players and coaches feature as well. Check it out here.

But one of my favorite pieces of the read is the first few paragraphs about former Ravens center, now with the Rams, Jason Brown. It tells the story of Brown going into his meeting with the Rams during free agency and touts not only Browns playing ability, but his poise and professionalism off the field.

Jason Brown’s briefcase was the first indication that he was going to be all business when he made a free-agent visit to the St. Louis Rams in March. The team knew the 26-year-old center had everything they coveted for the position: agility, intelligence, leadership ability and a sturdy, 6-foot, 3-inch, 328-pound frame. What they couldn’t have anticipated was his meticulous preparation.

After pulling a legal notepad and a ballpoint pen from that briefcase, the Baltimore Ravens free agent interrogated the team’s officials like a defense attorney bracing for a career-making day in court.

Scribbling notes furiously and firing questions rapidly, Brown drilled head coach Steve Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney on every possible topic. He wanted to know the vision for the team and the best schools for his children. He asked why certain coaches were hired and how he could jump-start his community work.

Brown was a stand-up guy for the Ravens for his time here and is clearly continuing that in St. Louis. It’s nice to catch up with former favorites every once in a while.

The article ends with a discussion of Brown and new Ravens center Matt Birk, and how big of an impact both have had in developing the Ravens offensive line over the last few seasons.

Quick Stat Analysis

Written by Dan McGrainNo Comments »

I was browsing ESPN’s coverage of the NFL this weekend and, of course, the Bengals-Ravens game upcoming, when a short paragraph caught my eye.

“The Ravens are actually the worst pass defense this year against No. 1 receivers, although they end up eighth in pass defense DVOA overall because their pass rush and coverage of other wide receivers have been so strong. The Ravens have given up touchdowns to Vincent Jackson, Randy Moss and Dwayne Bowe — and No. 1s (those three and Braylon Edwards) have a 73 percent catch rate against the Ravens (compared with the league-wide catch rate for No. 1 receivers of 55 percent).” (ESPN Sunday Countdown, Contributed by Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com)

[In the words of Mythbusters, CAUTION! Stat analysis to follow!]

Schatz is using completion percentage (catch rate) to #1 receivers to evaluate the Ravens success. But that catch rate is just a bad stat. Here are final numbers for the #1 receivers in the Ravens four games so far…

  • Vincent Jackson: 6 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD
  • Dwayne Bowe: 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD
  • Randy Moss: 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD
  • Braylon Edwards: 3 catches, 35 yards, 0 TD

With the exception of Jackson, who absolutely lit up the Ravens secondary with help from Philip Rivers, the Ravens have been pretty exceptional against #1 receivers. If the catch rate is high, but the completions rate is low, that points to the fact that QBs just aren’t throwing to their #1′s against the Ravens. Thinking back to Sunday against New England, I don’t remember Moss seeing more 4 balls thrown his way. So while the catch rate for Moss might be 75%, his final numbers were still very average.

Bottom line: I’ll take a high catch-rate with low thrown-to totals every day, especially against #1s. To me, this signals that the Ravens have been especially good against #1 receivers. Maybe it’s because the Ravens are doubling them up, maybe it’s because the Ravens are game-planning well. Either way, the ball is not finding the #1 very often. And that’s a good thing for Baltimore.

When you look at the catch-rate stat this way, it turns the above argument on its head. Opposing QBs are avoiding their #1 receivers against the Ravens (Tom Brady threw to 9 receivers, the Browns to 8). And they are actually completing more passes for more yards to back-ups and check-downs. QBs are getting the ball off, and getting yards. And that leads me to believe, and anyone who’s watched the Ravens will agree, that the pass rush has actually been weaker than expected.

So, to ESPN Sunday Countdown and FootballOutsiders.com… watch the games, not the stats. Football is not a ‘statistically perfect sport’ the way baseball is.

And to the Ravens? Continue to control #1′s (here’s looking at you, Chad Johnson). The others won’t do much damage.

Weighing in… Game’s Best Receiver

Written by Dan McGrainNo Comments »

 

With the Texans heading to Arizona this weekend to play the Cardinals, there’s been a popular storyline emerging about a match-up of the league’s best receivers. The Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald is the current ‘it’ receiver after his ridiculous playoff streak last season, while Andre Johnson has been considered one of the league’s best players on a bad team.

So who’s the best receiver in the league?

As always, for me, it depends on how you define best.

Statistically in their career? Randy Moss. In the last three seasons? Probably Fitzgerald, with Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne close behind. Biggest play maker over their career? Probably Moss again.

Biggest play maker right now? Probably a guy that’s been overshadowed by Fitzgerald recently, his teammate Anquan Boldin.

Boldin’s attitude and history of injury take him out of the equation for some, but his natural ability is freakish. He averages more yards per game than Fitzgerald and more yards after catch (far more in fact, 5.4 to Fitzgerald’s 3.6). The argument could be made that Fitzgerald has simply stolen the spotlight thanks to Boldin’s injuries.

Personally, Andre Johnson hardly figures into the equation. Johnson has made some spectacular plays and long been the Texans lone shining star. But a league star he is not. And that is taking nothing away from his monstrous season in 2008, when he averaged nearly 100 yards per game and scored eight touchdowns.

But, if you were to ask me who I would want on my team right now to build an offense around, it would be Fitzgerald. No questions asked. Raw talent, speed, smart, great route runner and little attitude to boot. Tell me I’m wrong.

Lewis, Reed Avoid Fines

Written by Dan McGrainNo Comments »

Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis and Safety Ed Reed will not be fined for their post-game remarks criticizing the officials in the team’s 27-21 loss to the Patriots. Read more here.

Quite a surprise, actually. Lewis in particular just went off on the officials in the game. But in reality, both players were criticizing the league’s recent moves to protect quarterbacks. As Lewis sees it, the new rules and interpretations make it impossible for a player to hit a quarterback without getting flagged.

No word yet on whether John Harbaugh will be fined for his in-game tantrum, which drew a personal foul, and his post-game remarks which were similar to Lewis and Reed. I would expect Harbaugh to see a lighter paycheck this week.

What’s Happening to Baltimore’s ESPN Radio Station?

Written by Danielle1 Comment »

When Baltimore’s 1300 AM became a totally ESPN radio station (it was once a blend of ESPN radio content and local sportscasters), it seemed to signal a shift in the legitimacy of sports talk in Baltimore. The availability of ESPN’s full lineup (from Mike & Mike to Scott Van Pelt) provides the city with a national view of sports, something that was severely lacking in this town.

One of my main complaints with the former 1300 AM was the onslaught of commercials.  Obviously, the ads are needed to bring in revenue to the station, but at times these commercial breaks lasted a good five minutes. That’s a long time when there are no visuals (like on television) to help break up the monotony of sound. Unfortunately, since the station’s switch, the ad  blitzkrieg has seemingly taken a turn for the worst.

Driving home from downtown Baltimore, I was keyed up to hear the start of the second of two games being broadcast for Monday Night Football’s opening night. Instead, I was thrust into 12 minute hell of advertisement after advertisement after advertisement. Twelve minutes. In case you’re wondering, I traveled from M&T Bank Stadium on 395 to Route 100 in Columbia in the time span. The broadcast started with the announcers in mid-sentence explaining that the Raiders were now on their second possession.

That’s a darn shame. And it isn’t ESPN’s fault.

This same nonsense occurs on a daily basis on Baltimore’s 1300 AM. Try catching the traffic report on this station. They’ll introduce the traffic reporter. And the traffic music will play. But there won’t be any traffic report. What you will get, underneath the mundane music, is another ad in the background.

This station used to be a proud and reliable station. Now, one has to wonder if the powers that be aren’t trying to sabotage ESPN’s market share in favor of their own sports commentators that were moved to the FM dial because of the changeover. Maybe just a little?



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