The Ravens bring one of the league’s best rush attacks to New England. Everyone should be used to this by now. Despite throwing more than they’ve run in their three games this season, the Ravens rushing attack is still ranked 5th in the league. They also lead the league in rushing touchdowns. New England’s rush defense is much improved from last year, ranking 10th in the league presently and having allowed just one rushing touchdown. But the Patriots will struggle to contain the Ravens flexible rushing attack and formidable offensive line. Edge: Ravens (+2)

Ravens Pass vs. Patriots Defense

The key to the Ravens passing attack this season hasn’t been Joe Flacco. It hasn’t really been the receivers either. Though, both groups have been outstanding and have done more than their part to help the unit along. But the key to the Ravens passing game this season has been the offensive line. The real value of such a solid line is the versatility its gives the rest of the offense: enter Todd Heap, Kelley Washington (who even knew we were allowed to have three receivers on the field at once?) and even LJ Smith last week. Add a group of rushers that can catch the ball coming out of the backfield and this passing game is hard to handle. The Patriots pass defense has been solid, but imperfect. They are short on sacks and interceptions (zero!) and are allowing opposing quarterbacks a rating of 98.4. Edge: Ravens (+1)

Patriots Rush vs. Ravens Defense

The Patriots rushing attack has always been relatively weak, especially in comparison to its vaunted passing game. The Patriots rushing game these days features long-time veteran and Ravens adversary Fred Taylor along side the younger bruiser Laurence Maroney.  And that’s not a combination to turn your nose up to. Taylor ran for over 100 yards against the Falcons last week. It’s clear that despite some early season hesitancy, Bill Belichick is moving his team back towards the run. But the Ravens defense is as good as they come against the run. Inside you meet Haloti Ngata and Kelly Gregg; anywhere else you meet one of the league’s best corps of linebackers. If the Ravens can force the Patriots to abandon the run early – as they did against New York two weeks ago – they’ll be in good shape. Edge: Ravens (+1)

Patriots Pass vs. Ravens Defense

The Patriots passing game is among the league’s best. That’s what Tom Brady and Randy Moss do for a team. Brady has been sacked just once this year, despite the talk of his “shaky” start. So it might be a bit much to expect the Ravens to be able to really get to Brady. But you don’t have to sack a quarterback to force mistakes. Even if they can’t get Brady while he still has the ball, hitting him soon after should do the trick. Downfield, the Ravens don’t have much of an answer to the Patriots receivers – at least not Moss. Moss is bigger and stronger than anyone the Ravens secondary can offer. The key for the Ravens will be to keep their speedy defensive backs in Moss’ face, and then get lots of help over the top from Ed Reed and Dawan Landry. It is possible to make Randy Moss disappear; it’s just not easy. Edge: Patriots (+2)

Special Teams

Despite early season troubles, the Ravens special teams have come around a good bit. The return game could use work, but it won’t hurt the Ravens. And thanks to Sam Koch, the Ravens can play the field position game between kick-offs.  The Patriots are equally average.  Their returners are fine, not special. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski is one of the league’s better young kickers, but you won’t be comparing him to Vinatieri or even Stover anytime soon. Edge: Even

Intangibles

The Ravens have never beaten the Patriots. … The Patriots own one of the best homefield advantages in football. … The Ravens are good on the road, but better at home.  … The Ravens though are good as underdogs, even if by just a point and a half. … National experts are leaning Ravens, local experts (even in Baltimore) are leaning Patriots… Edge: Patriots (+1)

Prediction

You’ll notice I added a plus-rating in parentheses to each edge this week – just trying it out. Not all edges are created equal, you see. By my math, the final total goes to the Ravens, +1. What does that mean, exactly? Not sure yet. But here’s what I’m thinking.

I’m thinking that I have this gut feeling that the Ravens are going to continue to score points. They have been scoring all kinds of ways this season – long passes and runs that take just second as well as long drive that can take nearly a quarter. The Ravens balance offensively is going to challenge every defense they face. It’s simple football philosophy: a defense cannot protect against everything. And right now, the Ravens offense has just about everything.

So, the Ravens are going to score. The Patriots are going to score when they have the ball as well, there’s just not much answer to Brady-to-Moss. But the Ravens are going to eat clock and keep the Pats off the field, every chance they get. And that’s something Tom Brady alone cannot fix. The Ravens win by about a touchdown. Ravens 31, Patriots 24.