The Blame Game: Vikings 33, Ravens 31

He’s not getting the most blame – and he doesn’t deserve the most blame – but someone has to say it. And I will if I have to…

Steven Hauschka: 30%

Like it or not… when you need a field goal to win, a very makeable field goal, in a dome, with no wind or other issues… it needs to be made. That’s the end of it. The end. There’s nothing more to say. Clutch or not. Last minute or not. Field goals matter at all times; this one happened to determine the outcome of the game. Haushcka has to make the kick. The end. Throw blame everywhere else for our position up to that point, but Hauschka  has to make the kick.

In the words of a friend, let’s call it “poetic justice.” The minute Stover is picked up elsewhere, the makeable kick is missed. In all honesty, I love Hauschka and all that he brings to the table… but I was probably giving him better odds than most when I was thinking “this is 50-50…”

Ravens Secondary: 60%

Domonique Foxworth, Fabian Washington, Dawan Landry, Chris Carr, Lardarius Webb, Frank Walker. Frank f’n Walker. We’re looking at you. For the fourth time in six games you all looked worse than bad. You were pathetic. I’m not holding back anymore. I don’t know if you’re just confused or if you simply don’t have the ability, but you are the reason this defense is crumbling. Even the 100-yard rushers connect back to you.

Seriously, Frank, what are you doing? Is it even possible for you to be on the field and NOT have a flag thrown at you. Or not have the QB single you out? And Dawan… on yet another big play you looked absolutely lost. In fact, on one of Favre’s late TDs you almost seemed to be telling Brett to throw it to the man you were simply refusing to cover. Get it together.

Coaching: 10%

The Ravens defensive woes are not solely the fault of the players or the greatness of the opposing offense. Greg Mattison needs to find a way to get this unit to work together. Maybe it’s about getting Samari Rolle on the field. Maybe it’s about getting Paul Kruger on the field. Maybe it’s about play-calling. Whatever it is, do it.

Mattison has been unable to adjust his schemes and his plays to the needs of his players and the strengths of his opponents. Apparently the Ravens are just too easy to read.

Even offensively, Cam Cameron took long enough to find his groove. Had the Ravens started showing life just one possession earlier, perhaps that last kick is less necessary. Nice recovery, though, of course.

Sorry for the delay… it happens!

Ravens Rush vs. Vikings Defense: The Ravens can run the ball, or so I believe. But the Bengals managed to stop them and they’ve chosen not to run against other opponents. Put that against the Williams crew and the only rush defense that can rival the Ravens. Edge: Even

Ravens Pass vs. Vikings Defense: The loss of Jared Gaither might be hurt more than expected, especially with Jared Allen rushing the corner. The Vikings are talented but Joe Cool and the Ravens can win the match-ups if given time. Edge: Even

Vikings Rush vs. Ravens Defense: The Ravens gave up 100 yards to a single back for the first time in nearly 40 games last week. If there’s any back I fear being able to do that again, it’s probably the Vikings Adrian Peterson. But the Ravens can shut him down if they play up to their ability. Edge: Even

Vikings Pass vs. Ravens Defense: Brett Favre has been throwing the ball like a 35 year old recently (sorry, mandatory age joke taken care of). The Vikings still plan to keep the ball out of Favre’s hands as much as possible though. The Ravens D needs a good rush and a pick-me-up game. Edge: Even

Special Teams: The Ravens are still seeking a solid return man (perhaps Ladarius Webb will get more than a pair of returns this week). Ravens punter Sam Koch continues to make a bid for team MVP (like on most Ravens teams). The Vikings are solid all around. Ryan Longwell is a great veteran kicker. Young’n Percy Harvin is making a splash on returns. The Ravens must contain him.  Edge: Even

Micellaneous: The Ravens have lost two straight (about the same time they lost three straight last year, eh?)… Joe Flacco is still Mr. Unshakable on the road… The Vikings have one of the best home field advantages in the league thanks to the dome… The Vikings are one of five unbeatens left in the league… The combined record the Vikings opponents is 7-17. Edge: Vikings (+1)

Official Prediction

This is about as even as two teams are going to match-up in the NFL; they literally go strength-for-strength, player-for-player. A pair of nice defenses, great running games and a great quarterback match-up. In fact, I’m surprised there isn’t more talk about Flacco and Favre. C’mon, both F names, both undervalued coming out of college… right? Ok, stretch. But Flacco is emerging as one of the game’s best and Favre is trying to hold his value.

This is almost too close to call. I want to believe the Ravens will win this game (and they certainly can if they play to their strengths), but it’s hard to pick a team that has faded in the stretch for two straight games. The Ravens will play well, but it won’t be enough. The rebound will have to wait until after the bye. Vikings 23, Ravens 20.

First look at the Vikings so far this season and there’s just one thing to say: there’s a lot of talent on that team and a lot of people to be afraid of.

Brett Favre: He’s not even the most important piece on this team, but he has shown several times this season what he’s capable of. The game-winning throw in Week 3 against the 49ers was the manifestation of every fear we need to have about Favre.

Adrian Peterson: Stat for stat, pound for pound, yard for yard: there is no better back in the league right now. The Ravens struggled against the Bengals and Cedric Benson, and Peterson outdoes Benson is just about every way.

Big Receivers: Bernard Berrian is the vet and is 6’1. The rookie Percy Harvin is the leading receiver and is 5’11. But the real threat to the Ravens is the young gun with a few seasons under his belt, Sidney Rice, who comes in at 6’4. All three can burn.

EJ Henderson: The former Terp doesn’t get enough credit for his presence and power in the Vikings defense. He leads the defense in tackles and his impact his felt on every play, just like a certain Raven we know.

Jared Allen: The country wonderboy has 6.5 sacks and last week returned a fumble for a touchdown. Allen is in his prime and can rush with the best of them.

The Williams Brothers: Overlooked so far this season, the big boys in the middle of the Vikings defense stuff the run, put a good push on pass plays and keep the rest of the defense free to do the fun stuff.

All in all… It’s a pretty overwhelming roster to glance at. Some of the names might not be as big as others, but the numbers are all there. I wasn’t buying into the all the hype preseason – and I’m still not sure this is “the best team Favre’s ever been on” – but they have been seriously impressive over the season’s first five games. They boast the only rush defense in the league that can rival the Ravens and pair it with perhaps the league’s best rushing attack. Those two statements alone make them one of the league’s toughest teams.

The Ravens will have to win this game by shutting down Adrian Peterson and forcing Brett Favre into his occasionally woeful ways.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-1): Never thought the Bengals would be the first team talked about in this breakdown… but here we go. The Bengals are an anomaly right now. Their record says they need to be taken seriously (especially with wins over Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay, and a close loss to Denver). But their statistics say they are just another middle of the road team on all sides of the ball: 18th in total offense, 17th in total defense. The question is: will the record eventually match the stats or will the stats eventually match the record? One of the two is bound to happen. Personally, I’m betting on the latter – but I’ll let the season play that out. Next Game: vs. Houston (2-3)

Baltimore Ravens (3-2): The Ravens have had a pretty funky fall from grace in the last two weeks. They had a chance to win in New England on the final drive, but failed. They also had plenty of chances to close out the Bengals (in a game the Ravens had no business winning), but failed there as well. If the Ravens win either of these games, no one even gives a second thought to how “real” the Ravens are. But they didn’t win. And that’s all there is to it. The road ahead is no easier and the Ravens need to establish a team identity and fast. Even the Bengals have one right now, even if its as silly as “winning every game in the final minute.” Next Game: @ Minnesota (5-0)

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So remember Rex Ryan and his vaunted defense? The one everyone here is crying to get back… the one with Bart Scott and Jim Leonard… the one that Greg Mattison isn’t man enough to inherit? Yeah, that one. Well, Rex and his D just got schooled by Miami’s Wildcat with Chad Henne at the helm.

And not just once. Not just twice. But three times over in the fourth quarter when it mattered most. Surprising in part because just last year Rex Ryan and the Ravens dominated the Dolphins in Miami twice, and the Wildcat was declared extinct.

Everyone’s vulnerable. It’s about making adjustments. The Ravens problems, but they have plenty to work with. It’s just not guaranteed. It takes time, it takes effort. There is a learning curve. Have patience.

There’s a lot of finger pointing going on in Baltimore right now. Everyone thinks they know what the Ravens biggest problem is and why the Ravens lost on Sunday. Everyone is happy to give more than their two cents.

So far the most popular answer I’ve heard is the Ravens “weak” secondary. Just about everyone is pointing to a secondary that has allowed big numbers to big names. From Foxworth’s lack of physicality to Carr’s stumbles to Walker’s penalties.

In reality, we should be placing blame on every single Ravens player and coach that took the field on Sunday. They all failed. They all had opportunities and they all missed them. What we saw yesterday was exactly the opposite of the sharp, smart and dangerous Ravens teams we have come to know and love.

Following a nasty loss in New England last week, everyone expected the Ravens to bounce back with a vengeance and obliterate the Bengals. Instead, we got a lackluster effort. We got a team that looked too comfortable for its own good and then uncomfortable when it mattered most.

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Only two game balls to give out today… well, make that three…

Offensive Game Ball: Ray Rice. Rice ran fairly well behind an overpowered offensive line and made the offense’s biggest play for its only score. Without him, the Ravens offense doesn’t put a point on the board.

Defensive Game Ball: Ed Reed. Reed played his best game of the year – and it wasn’t just the pick-six or the forced fumble. He actually made some tackles: real tackles, not the kind where he went low to protect himself.

The Half-Assed Ball: Everyone Else. The Ravens were outplayed in every aspect of this game (except long-snapper play). There can be no excuses. The Ravens are better than what they showed yesterday. They have to learn that it’s not just about being a favorite and having the right pieces – you actually have to show up on Sunday.

Next week in Minnesota will be the key… but I expect a very different Ravens team to show up in Cincinnati in a few weeks.

I was browsing ESPN’s coverage of the NFL this weekend and, of course, the Bengals-Ravens game upcoming, when a short paragraph caught my eye.

“The Ravens are actually the worst pass defense this year against No. 1 receivers, although they end up eighth in pass defense DVOA overall because their pass rush and coverage of other wide receivers have been so strong. The Ravens have given up touchdowns to Vincent Jackson, Randy Moss and Dwayne Bowe — and No. 1s (those three and Braylon Edwards) have a 73 percent catch rate against the Ravens (compared with the league-wide catch rate for No. 1 receivers of 55 percent).” (ESPN Sunday Countdown, Contributed by Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com)

[In the words of Mythbusters, CAUTION! Stat analysis to follow!]

Schatz is using completion percentage (catch rate) to #1 receivers to evaluate the Ravens success. But that catch rate is just a bad stat. Here are final numbers for the #1 receivers in the Ravens four games so far…

• Vincent Jackson: 6 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD
• Dwayne Bowe: 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD
• Randy Moss: 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD
• Braylon Edwards: 3 catches, 35 yards, 0 TD

With the exception of Jackson, who absolutely lit up the Ravens secondary with help from Philip Rivers, the Ravens have been pretty exceptional against #1 receivers. If the catch rate is high, but the completions rate is low, that points to the fact that QBs just aren’t throwing to their #1′s against the Ravens. Thinking back to Sunday against New England, I don’t remember Moss seeing more 4 balls thrown his way. So while the catch rate for Moss might be 75%, his final numbers were still very average.

Bottom line: I’ll take a high catch-rate with low thrown-to totals every day, especially against #1s. To me, this signals that the Ravens have been especially good against #1 receivers. Maybe it’s because the Ravens are doubling them up, maybe it’s because the Ravens are game-planning well. Either way, the ball is not finding the #1 very often. And that’s a good thing for Baltimore.

When you look at the catch-rate stat this way, it turns the above argument on its head. Opposing QBs are avoiding their #1 receivers against the Ravens (Tom Brady threw to 9 receivers, the Browns to 8). And they are actually completing more passes for more yards to back-ups and check-downs. QBs are getting the ball off, and getting yards. And that leads me to believe, and anyone who’s watched the Ravens will agree, that the pass rush has actually been weaker than expected.

So, to ESPN Sunday Countdown and FootballOutsiders.com… watch the games, not the stats. Football is not a ‘statistically perfect sport’ the way baseball is.

And to the Ravens? Continue to control #1′s (here’s looking at you, Chad Johnson). The others won’t do much damage.

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Ravens Rush vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals rush defense ranks 14th in the league allowing just over 100 yards per game. The Ravens rushing attack is 5th in the league topped 100 yards against the Patriots on just 17 carries. The real question is whether the Ravens will run or not. The Ravens lack of rushing attempts has hurt them several times this season (even in victories). And in limited attempts, stuffing the box on short yardage is that much easier (as the Pats showed). Edge: Ravens +1

Ravens Pass vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals pass rush has been excellent this year, especially from newly signed Antwaan Odom, who leads the NFL with 8 sacks. As a team, the Bengals have 12 sacks, putting them close to the top of the league. With Jared Gaither unlikely to play for the Ravens, rookie Michael Oher will move to the left side and handle Odom. If the Ravens can contain Odom, they have a good shot. Despite all the pressure, the Bengals have just two interceptions and are 24th in the league in pass defense. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Rush vs. Ravens Defense

Cedric Benson has been one of the league’s strongest runners for the last 10 weeks. No, really. Cedric Benson. But even so, Benson is no match for the Ravens top-ranked rush defense, which is showing true signs of greatness (under 60 yards on the ground per game). The Ravens will have to work to contain Benson and the Bengals, but not too hard. Edge: Ravens +1

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Three story lines to follow as the Bengals come to Baltimore on Sunday…

1. Carson Palmer can beat the Ravens.

The Carson Palmer of 2009 may not be in the same form we’ve come to know, but he is still Carson Palmer. And Carson Palmer has the ability to throw the ball all over the Ravens when he’s feeling good. He’s done it before.

Overall, in nine games against the Ravens, Palmer has a quarterback rating of 87.6 with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Not outstanding, but not shabby either.

But those numbers are skewed a bit. Palmer either plays his best or his worst against Baltimore. Palmer has six games against the Ravens with a QB Rating over 90 – in four of those games his QB rating is well over 100. In the other three games, his rating is under 60. There’s no middle ground.

Again, this year’s Palmer may not be able to do that – the Bengals are not the offensive force they once were. But if he’s done it before, he can do it again.

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