Cincinnati Bengals (4-1): Never thought the Bengals would be the first team talked about in this breakdown… but here we go. The Bengals are an anomaly right now. Their record says they need to be taken seriously (especially with wins over Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay, and a close loss to Denver). But their statistics say they are just another middle of the road team on all sides of the ball: 18th in total offense, 17th in total defense. The question is: will the record eventually match the stats or will the stats eventually match the record? One of the two is bound to happen. Personally, I’m betting on the latter – but I’ll let the season play that out. Next Game: vs. Houston (2-3)

Baltimore Ravens (3-2): The Ravens have had a pretty funky fall from grace in the last two weeks. They had a chance to win in New England on the final drive, but failed. They also had plenty of chances to close out the Bengals (in a game the Ravens had no business winning), but failed there as well. If the Ravens win either of these games, no one even gives a second thought to how “real” the Ravens are. But they didn’t win. And that’s all there is to it. The road ahead is no easier and the Ravens need to establish a team identity and fast. Even the Bengals have one right now, even if its as silly as “winning every game in the final minute.” Next Game: @ Minnesota (5-0)

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Baltimore Ravens (3-1): Tough loss in New England, but a good showing. Despite a number of problems and mistakes, the Ravens were just yards away from a victory in the game’s final moments. The defense did an acceptable job defending against Tom Brady and his receivers. Still waiting for and expecting this team to get back to its ground-game roots. Next Game: vs. Bengals (3-1)

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1): The Bengals barely escaped the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday, winning in overtime on a Shayne Graham field goal. Still curious how the Bengals failed to run away with the game, though, as they had a big lead early following a series of Cleveland turnovers. Also wondering what kind of team lets the Browns back into it. Next Game: @ Ravens (3-1)

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2): Read the rest of this entry »

Three Predictions

1. The Ravens will score at least 25 points. My actual bet is 30 or more, but after a weak showing in the predictions game last week (or rather, missing my two hundred yard rushers) I’ll go easier. Did you hear Joe Flacco on Mike and Mike in the Morning the other day? He sounded so cool, so collected, so confident in this team’s abilities; it was astounding. Mike Greenberg even said post interview that he regretted not picking the Ravens for the Super Bowl because Flacco clearly had it all. The Patriots cannot, will not stop the Ravens as easily as they assume.

2. Randy Moss will disappear – for a half. Moss is one of the league’s greatest receivers – in history. Talent-wise, he might be unmatched. But like any receiver, he can be minimized. He can disappear. He is not a 10-reception-per-game machine, as much as he is made out to be. I think early in the game the Patriots will throw towards Moss frequently, trying to expose the height and power advantage against the Ravens secondary. As the game progresses, however, and the Ravens adjust, Moss will be quieted a bit. Brady will be relying more on his other options. Braylon Edwards disappeared last week because the Ravens doubled him all game long – think similar.

3. The Chargers will dominated the Steelers. Vicious pass rush plus dangerous offense against weak offensive line and slightly hobbled defense? Did we mention struggling special teams unit? The Steelers look completely discombobulated, and the Chargers are not a push over. No Troy Polamalu = a big day for Philip Rivers. And the Steelers offense can’t run with those boys.

BONUS!  Browns-Bengals will be closer than expected. I’m going outside of this game again, simply because I have a gut feeling on this one. I don’t know why – we certainly didn’t see any life from the Browns in Baltimore – but I think they will bounce back a bit this week at home. I’m almost leaning towards picking the Browns… hah!

Three Questions

1. Will the Ravens pass rush even matter? I’ve heard a lot of talk about the blitz schemes the Ravens are preparing and how the Patriots are planning to defend against those schemes. But two points should be made here: (1) The Ravens defense is not the Jets defense. You shouldn’t expect the Ravens to blitz like the Jets or have the same success rushing the pass. (2) The Ravens pass rush has been weak recently. I expect Greg Mattison to focus a lot more on tight plays against the receivers (fixing that problem from San Diego) than rushing Brady.

2. Can the Ravens slow their offense and eat clock? The true key for the Ravens will be to keep Tom Brady off the field as much as possible. We’ve seen the Ravens score quickly. In fact, in San Diego they were almost scoring too quickly at times. The Ravens struggled more later in the game when trying to drive the ball for longer times to keep Philip Rivers on the bench. The Ravens should be able to move the ball deliberately, but it’s not a given.

3. What put Bill Belichick’s panties in a twist? Seriously, I’ve been wondering for a while. Football is a game, not a war, not a “way of life.” Win or lose, close game or blow out, your opponents are simply opponents, and they deserve your respect. Walk across the field, shake some hands, and act like a man.

Baltimore Ravens (3-0): The Ravens rolled against Cleveland, not even a hitch in the giddyup. The Ravens offense also continued to impress – scoring 30 points in three consecutive games is not easy, even if two opponents were a bit weak. More importantly for the Ravens, their defense seemed to find some renewed confidence and swagger. It may have only been the Browns, but the team’s four interceptions are nothing to laugh about. Heading to New England this week, however, you can’t exactly expect the same kind of mistakes from Tom Brady as from Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Put enough pressure on him, however, and you can never be sure. Next Game: @ New England (2-1)

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1): The Bengals pulled the upset at home as predicted here (and many other places). It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t even cute. For three quarters the Bengals were pretty well handled by the Steelers, and then the Bengals offense showed up and made some plays. But a win is a win, and the Bengals are second in the division. It’s hard to tell what to believe about the Bengals this season. Their defense was still stout against the Steelers, but the Steelers offense has struggled mightily this season. And the Bengals offense only came together at the end. What we do know is that with a re-energized Carson Palmer, they can be trouble. Next Game: @ Cleveland (0-3).

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2): Read the rest of this entry »

Watching the Ravens against the Browns on Sunday, I felt something I haven’t truly felt watching the Ravens in a long time. It didn’t entirely strike me as I was watching the game, but I certainly realized as I reflected a bit on the trouncing of the Browns.

There was never a moment, not even an instant, during that game where I thought this Ravens team would not complete the blowout. There wasn’t even a fleeting thought in the back of my head that it could even be a close game. It simply didn’t exist.

And looking back on the game, the Ravens seem to have been filled with the same emotion.

They were relaxed; they were just playing football. And playing it well.

It’s an indescribably weird feeling. There is supposed to be some kind of drama, some kind of suspense, in football. There are supposed to be big plays on both sides and “What if…” moments.  There’s supposed to be that any given Sunday, any given play mentality. But it simply didn’t exist.

Both on offense and on defense, the Ravens looked like a team in absolute control. Not necessarily in control of the Browns, but in control of what they were going to do. It wasn’t so much swagger, as we saw in 2000 under Billick. It was that subtle, simple, understated confidence in their ability – their ability to drive 90 yards on 16 plays or drive 70 yards on just three plays, their ability to make a stop on 4th and goal or their ability to make an interception at any moment.

But comfortable can be a bad thing sometimes. We’ve seen the Ravens get complacent before – we’ve seen them give up little plays expecting to make big plays. We’ve seen them settle for a run expecting the defense to pick up the slack.

Personally, I don’t see that with this Ravens team. I see their comfort as having a soothing effect, relieving the anxiety that “the only way to win is to be perfect.” In reality, there’s not a lot you can do about how the other team is going to perform – you can only impact how you are going to perform.

So what do you think? Are you seeing the same thing? Are you worried that this team might get too comfortable, too confident? Is it giving you hope or worry with a big game in New England on the docket?

Offensive Game Ball: Derrick Mason. Actually, lots of good news to go around on offense. But for 800 career receptions and one of the most fun TD receptions in recent memory – it goes to the vet and the leader. Mason made some nice catches throughout the game, a few for first downs, a few classic outs. But his 72 yard reception, turning to the ball, shaking the defender and strutting into the endzone: priceless.

Yellow Game Ball: Mike Furrey, Browns. The Browns wide out actually had a decent game when all was said and done, totaling four catches for 40 yards. And a few of those catches stung the Ravens. What wasn’t so hot, though, was his reception on the Browns first play of the game. Furrey caught the ball crossing about five yards out and promptly planted his bum on the turf. Seeing Ray Lewis out of the corner of your eye, Mike? Take the hit. [Honorable Mention to Eric Mangini opting for the field goal with the score 27-0 in the fourth quarter.]

Don’t Blink Game Ball: Domonique Foxworth. Foxworth  helped get Brady Quinn benched with his first quarter pick. I’m not sure whether he was tipped off by coaches or just did his film study, but with Braylon Edwards running straight at him, trying to sell the fly route, Foxworth didn’t move. Seriously, he didn’t flinch a muscle. And when Edwards let up and turned for the hook, Foxworth coolly stepped in front and took the pick. He also did his best Ed Reed impersonation, perilously pitching the ball to Reed for a few extra yards on the return.

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Just under two hours to game time and I’m trying to remember what the storyline on this game is.

I suppose at one point it may have been about Jamal Lewis coming back and playing the Ravens – that’s always interesting, right? Not really. Lewis had some decent games against the Ravens, but Ravens fans especially have never had it out for Lewis now that he’s on the Browns. I don’t really think that Lewis has it in for the Ravens either.

Oh, and did I mention that Lewis won’t be playing today, anyway.

Some in the press are trying to play the “can the Ravens handle this success” card. That’s just silly. The Ravens went 11-5 last year and made it to the AFC Championship – with virtually the same roster. They can handle the success.

They also proved last year that they know how to win games they should win. They even won games they weren’t supposed to win.  Week 1 might have been a scare against the Chiefs, but minus two big mistakes, and that game is a 100% blowout.

Sorry, but there is no story this week. Here’s what the story should be: Can the Ravens put up enough points to overtake the Saints as the league’s #1 scoring offense? Probably not. Can they at least hold on to #2? Probably.

Three Predictions:

1. Two Ravens runners will top 100 yards. That’s pretty bold, right? I’m leaning towards Willis McGahee and Ray Rice, obviously. Not sure that there are even enough carries in one game to get them both over 100 yards, but it only really takes one big run (and the Browns specialize in making those available). If this doesn’t happen, I won’t be losing any sleep. Just a gut feeling.

2. It won’t be a shut-out. As much as Ravens fans and the team want it, the Browns are going to score. This Ravens defense is not there yet, especially not with Josh Cribbs helping out with field position. Not sure if the Browns will find the endzone or not (based on yesterday’s score prediction, I’m leaning towards not), but they will put something up on the scoreboard. But man, what would a shut out do for the Ravens points allowed average!

3. The Bengals will upend the Steelers. Ok, so this one isn’t Ravens, obviously. But there’s only so much to say about Ravens-Browns. Looking at the other division game this weekend, I’m loving the Bengals. Their defense is more legitimate than most think at the moment, and with the Steelers unable to run and vulnerable to the sack, there’s hope for Cincy. I also love Hines Ward saying that Pitt isn’t worried about their running game because the passing attack can handle it – for how long, Hines?

Three Questions:

1. Will the Ravens big play defense show up? The Ravens are facing a pair of back-up runners (one a rookie). Their also facing an inexperience quarterback leading a sloppy offense. The turnovers should be there for the taking – so will the Ravens take them? I expect a couple of turnovers, of course. But the bigger question is can the Ravens turn one into their signature scoring play? Fans are waiting – Ed Reed, Fabian Washington, Haloti Ngata, we’re looking at you.

2. Will the Ravens secondary improve? It better, given the opponent is far less advanced than San Diego was last week, but we all still have doubts. Defensive coordinator Greg Mattison said the defense will be returning to more standard secondary arrangements, hopefully keeping everyone on the same page and (we can only hope) in the right position. It would also help if he taught his smaller corners how to defend a pass, and not just run stride for stride with a receiver. But we can only hope for so much in a week.

3. Will the Browns implode? Their play on the field has already collapsed, obviously. That’s not really the question. But the whole team seems on the verge of absolute self-destruction. If the Ravens really pound the Browns, it might just be enough to send them over the edge and on the path to being one of the truly memorable bad teams in football history. Ray Lewis has a history of leaving bad memories for opponents, we can only hope he delivers here.

Ravens Rush Attack vs. Browns Rush Defense

The Browns rush defense could be one of the worst in league history, even relative to other Browns defenses in recent memory. And as bad as they have been, the Texans are actually still worse at the moment, statistically. Regardless, the Browns have allowed more than 400 yards rushing in just two games. And the Ravens? Well, they only bring the league’s fourth best rush attack to the game. While no individual Raven is going to have Adrian Peterson-type numbers at the end of the day (180 yards and 3 TDs), you can bet that the Ravens are going to get as much as they can on the ground. Any of the Ravens three runners (Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain) could handle this defense alone. And with the help of the Ravens offensive line, which has been downright dominant on the ground this season, you can expect to see defenders blown off the ball play after play. Edge: Ravens

Ravens Pass Attack vs. Browns Pass Defense:

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Thursday is usually the day where we break down the big match-up or big story of the week. Usually. Honestly, there isn’t one story in the Ravens-Browns game coming up on Sunday worth an entire column. Not one. There’s just nothing too interesting in this match-up, nothing the Browns are about that is worth a few hundred words.

So instead, here are three half-hearted items that the Ravens need to think about heading into Sunday…

1.  Josh Cribbs. The Ravens kick and punt coverage improved in Week 2 against the dangerous Darren Sproles, thanks in large part to great kicks by both Steven Hauschka and Sam Koch. If there is one returner more dangerous than Sproles right now, it’s Cribbs. Sproles nearly broke a few big kick returns and his impact on field position hurt the Ravens defensive effort. The Ravens need to more than match their effort from last week to contain Cribbs.

2. Braylon Edwards. If you want to talk about big, fast receivers, you want to talk about Edwards. Personally, I’m still having nightmares about Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers, I can’t even handle thinking about Edwards. The only threat the Ravens need to consider when the Browns have the ball is Edwards. If Brady Quinn can put the ball in the air, Edwards has a good shot of bringing it down. Last week Edwards caught six passes for more than 90 yards in a loss.

3. The Big Play. Let’s do the math together. Cribbs plus Edwards equals a dangerous mix and a good possibility of some big plays. We saw in Week 1 how just a pair of big plays can make any game look close. One interception… one big pass… one kick/punt return… A mistake here, a mistake there; it all adds up. The Ravens biggest worry, and our biggest worry as fans, should be the possibility that our defense continues to let up the big play.

The Browns aren’t heavy on talent. They aren’t loaded with heart at the moment either. But it only takes one player and one play to change a game.  The Browns have more than a few individuals that can really make a difference even in the face of a floundering franchise.

But in the end… don’t bet against the Ravens.