Cincinnati Bengals (4-1): Never thought the Bengals would be the first team talked about in this breakdown… but here we go. The Bengals are an anomaly right now. Their record says they need to be taken seriously (especially with wins over Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay, and a close loss to Denver). But their statistics say they are just another middle of the road team on all sides of the ball: 18th in total offense, 17th in total defense. The question is: will the record eventually match the stats or will the stats eventually match the record? One of the two is bound to happen. Personally, I’m betting on the latter – but I’ll let the season play that out. Next Game: vs. Houston (2-3)

Baltimore Ravens (3-2): The Ravens have had a pretty funky fall from grace in the last two weeks. They had a chance to win in New England on the final drive, but failed. They also had plenty of chances to close out the Bengals (in a game the Ravens had no business winning), but failed there as well. If the Ravens win either of these games, no one even gives a second thought to how “real” the Ravens are. But they didn’t win. And that’s all there is to it. The road ahead is no easier and the Ravens need to establish a team identity and fast. Even the Bengals have one right now, even if its as silly as “winning every game in the final minute.” Next Game: @ Minnesota (5-0)

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Joe Flacco had his worst game of the 2009 season on Sunday against the Bengals. While he completed more than 70% of his passes, only 4 of those completions went to receivers. Flacco also threw two interceptions, one on the Ravens final offensive play.

It wasn’t an awful performance, but it was not the Joe Cool performance Ravens fans have become accustomed to.  For the second week in a row, Flacco threw an interception in the red zone – wasting a Ravens scoring opportunity. Last week, miscommunication with Mark Clayton caused Flacco to throw a ball outside while Clayton went inside. This week, Flacco rushed his opportunity and failed to read CB Jonathan Joseph cutting underneath Todd Heap’s route.

That opening drive by the Ravens was their best of the game – though it came apart in its final plays with a false start on center Matt Birk and an unnecessary timeout. Early in the drive, Flacco completed 4 of 5 passes and the Ravens were moving with some consistency.

After the interception, however, Flacco and the offense really lost their focus. Flacco seemed timid when it came to throwing downfield and to his receivers; he rushed his reads and settled for the check-down too often. And unlike last week in New England, where Flacco seemed to be the offense’s general, this week we saw Flacco flustered and apparently outmatched.

Not many people are talking about Flacco’s play in this game; it’s been too easy to blame the defense for blowing a late lead. But Flacco had a subpar game.

The good news is that Flacco is still this franchise’s best chance to win. Flacco can and will provide for this offense. He just needs to settle down again and find the calmness that earned him the nickname Joe Cool. He can make any throw you need him to, if he is patient enough to make his reads and trust his line.

There’s a lot of finger pointing going on in Baltimore right now. Everyone thinks they know what the Ravens biggest problem is and why the Ravens lost on Sunday. Everyone is happy to give more than their two cents.

So far the most popular answer I’ve heard is the Ravens “weak” secondary. Just about everyone is pointing to a secondary that has allowed big numbers to big names. From Foxworth’s lack of physicality to Carr’s stumbles to Walker’s penalties.

In reality, we should be placing blame on every single Ravens player and coach that took the field on Sunday. They all failed. They all had opportunities and they all missed them. What we saw yesterday was exactly the opposite of the sharp, smart and dangerous Ravens teams we have come to know and love.

Following a nasty loss in New England last week, everyone expected the Ravens to bounce back with a vengeance and obliterate the Bengals. Instead, we got a lackluster effort. We got a team that looked too comfortable for its own good and then uncomfortable when it mattered most.

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Only two game balls to give out today… well, make that three…

Offensive Game Ball: Ray Rice. Rice ran fairly well behind an overpowered offensive line and made the offense’s biggest play for its only score. Without him, the Ravens offense doesn’t put a point on the board.

Defensive Game Ball: Ed Reed. Reed played his best game of the year – and it wasn’t just the pick-six or the forced fumble. He actually made some tackles: real tackles, not the kind where he went low to protect himself.

The Half-Assed Ball: Everyone Else. The Ravens were outplayed in every aspect of this game (except long-snapper play). There can be no excuses. The Ravens are better than what they showed yesterday. They have to learn that it’s not just about being a favorite and having the right pieces – you actually have to show up on Sunday.

Next week in Minnesota will be the key… but I expect a very different Ravens team to show up in Cincinnati in a few weeks.

Stupid Penalties: 40%

Second straight week the Ravens can thank themselves and their absolute lack of discipline for their problems. The officials were not good, but that’s not an excuse. The Ravens apparently didn’t learn anything from last week’s game in New England. I’m still a bit baffled by Steve Tasker’s relentless defense of the officiating – the Frank Walker pass interference and Chad Ochocinco lack of interference calls were particularly questionable, and Tasker failed to even acknowledge the possibility. Meanwhile, the Ravens gave away first downs and yards, play after play. [Is defensive illegal formation even a penalty, by the way?]

Stupid Players: 30%

Missed tackles. Missed coverages. Leaving holes wide open. Dropping passes. There are no excuses for the Ravens pathetic play today. As much as players and fans may want to be upset at the officials,  the Ravens came to the game today with no emotion and no heart. Half the game, I wasn’t even sure the defense wanted to be there – the secondary was consistently out of position and failed to find the ball while the front seven struggled to find their zones.

Stupid Gameplan: 20%

Noticing a trend yet? This whole game was stupid by the Ravens. I’m not sure what Cam Cameron’s offensive game plan was today. It’s become more and more clear to me that the offense simply does not have a steady game plan. In early games we dismissed the funky offensive style as “taking advantage of weak opponents,” but in two straight losses to good teams, there has been no “settling” of the gameplan. There were stretches where the Ravens looked far too conservative. At other times the Ravens looked far too aggressive. At no point did the Ravens offense look like the force it had been for the season’s first four weeks.

(Stupid) Disappearing Players: 9%

Derrick Mason. Willis McGahee. Kelley Washington. Terrell Suggs. Kelly Gregg. Fabian Washington. Le’Ron McClain. Were any of these guys even on the field today? Did McGahee even get a touch? Did Mason? Washington and McClain each had a moment or two… but I don’t even remember seeing Washington on the field more than two or three times.

Stupid Steve Tasker: 1%

Okay, so maybe he had nothing to do with the Ravens losing, but he certainly had a lot to do with me not enjoying the game. Gus Johnson is bad. Steve Tasker is just dreadful. I’m not sure how, but he’s actually gotten worse since the Ravens earlier games. Do they even show up before Sunday?

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Ravens Rush vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals rush defense ranks 14th in the league allowing just over 100 yards per game. The Ravens rushing attack is 5th in the league topped 100 yards against the Patriots on just 17 carries. The real question is whether the Ravens will run or not. The Ravens lack of rushing attempts has hurt them several times this season (even in victories). And in limited attempts, stuffing the box on short yardage is that much easier (as the Pats showed). Edge: Ravens +1

Ravens Pass vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals pass rush has been excellent this year, especially from newly signed Antwaan Odom, who leads the NFL with 8 sacks. As a team, the Bengals have 12 sacks, putting them close to the top of the league. With Jared Gaither unlikely to play for the Ravens, rookie Michael Oher will move to the left side and handle Odom. If the Ravens can contain Odom, they have a good shot. Despite all the pressure, the Bengals have just two interceptions and are 24th in the league in pass defense. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Rush vs. Ravens Defense

Cedric Benson has been one of the league’s strongest runners for the last 10 weeks. No, really. Cedric Benson. But even so, Benson is no match for the Ravens top-ranked rush defense, which is showing true signs of greatness (under 60 yards on the ground per game). The Ravens will have to work to contain Benson and the Bengals, but not too hard. Edge: Ravens +1

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Three story lines to follow as the Bengals come to Baltimore on Sunday…

1. Carson Palmer can beat the Ravens.

The Carson Palmer of 2009 may not be in the same form we’ve come to know, but he is still Carson Palmer. And Carson Palmer has the ability to throw the ball all over the Ravens when he’s feeling good. He’s done it before.

Overall, in nine games against the Ravens, Palmer has a quarterback rating of 87.6 with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Not outstanding, but not shabby either.

But those numbers are skewed a bit. Palmer either plays his best or his worst against Baltimore. Palmer has six games against the Ravens with a QB Rating over 90 – in four of those games his QB rating is well over 100. In the other three games, his rating is under 60. There’s no middle ground.

Again, this year’s Palmer may not be able to do that – the Bengals are not the offensive force they once were. But if he’s done it before, he can do it again.

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Baltimore Ravens (3-1): Tough loss in New England, but a good showing. Despite a number of problems and mistakes, the Ravens were just yards away from a victory in the game’s final moments. The defense did an acceptable job defending against Tom Brady and his receivers. Still waiting for and expecting this team to get back to its ground-game roots. Next Game: vs. Bengals (3-1)

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1): The Bengals barely escaped the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday, winning in overtime on a Shayne Graham field goal. Still curious how the Bengals failed to run away with the game, though, as they had a big lead early following a series of Cleveland turnovers. Also wondering what kind of team lets the Browns back into it. Next Game: @ Ravens (3-1)

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2): Read the rest of this entry »

Three Predictions

1. The Ravens will score at least 25 points. My actual bet is 30 or more, but after a weak showing in the predictions game last week (or rather, missing my two hundred yard rushers) I’ll go easier. Did you hear Joe Flacco on Mike and Mike in the Morning the other day? He sounded so cool, so collected, so confident in this team’s abilities; it was astounding. Mike Greenberg even said post interview that he regretted not picking the Ravens for the Super Bowl because Flacco clearly had it all. The Patriots cannot, will not stop the Ravens as easily as they assume.

2. Randy Moss will disappear – for a half. Moss is one of the league’s greatest receivers – in history. Talent-wise, he might be unmatched. But like any receiver, he can be minimized. He can disappear. He is not a 10-reception-per-game machine, as much as he is made out to be. I think early in the game the Patriots will throw towards Moss frequently, trying to expose the height and power advantage against the Ravens secondary. As the game progresses, however, and the Ravens adjust, Moss will be quieted a bit. Brady will be relying more on his other options. Braylon Edwards disappeared last week because the Ravens doubled him all game long – think similar.

3. The Chargers will dominated the Steelers. Vicious pass rush plus dangerous offense against weak offensive line and slightly hobbled defense? Did we mention struggling special teams unit? The Steelers look completely discombobulated, and the Chargers are not a push over. No Troy Polamalu = a big day for Philip Rivers. And the Steelers offense can’t run with those boys.

BONUS!  Browns-Bengals will be closer than expected. I’m going outside of this game again, simply because I have a gut feeling on this one. I don’t know why – we certainly didn’t see any life from the Browns in Baltimore – but I think they will bounce back a bit this week at home. I’m almost leaning towards picking the Browns… hah!

Three Questions

1. Will the Ravens pass rush even matter? I’ve heard a lot of talk about the blitz schemes the Ravens are preparing and how the Patriots are planning to defend against those schemes. But two points should be made here: (1) The Ravens defense is not the Jets defense. You shouldn’t expect the Ravens to blitz like the Jets or have the same success rushing the pass. (2) The Ravens pass rush has been weak recently. I expect Greg Mattison to focus a lot more on tight plays against the receivers (fixing that problem from San Diego) than rushing Brady.

2. Can the Ravens slow their offense and eat clock? The true key for the Ravens will be to keep Tom Brady off the field as much as possible. We’ve seen the Ravens score quickly. In fact, in San Diego they were almost scoring too quickly at times. The Ravens struggled more later in the game when trying to drive the ball for longer times to keep Philip Rivers on the bench. The Ravens should be able to move the ball deliberately, but it’s not a given.

3. What put Bill Belichick’s panties in a twist? Seriously, I’ve been wondering for a while. Football is a game, not a war, not a “way of life.” Win or lose, close game or blow out, your opponents are simply opponents, and they deserve your respect. Walk across the field, shake some hands, and act like a man.

Baltimore Ravens (3-0): The Ravens rolled against Cleveland, not even a hitch in the giddyup. The Ravens offense also continued to impress – scoring 30 points in three consecutive games is not easy, even if two opponents were a bit weak. More importantly for the Ravens, their defense seemed to find some renewed confidence and swagger. It may have only been the Browns, but the team’s four interceptions are nothing to laugh about. Heading to New England this week, however, you can’t exactly expect the same kind of mistakes from Tom Brady as from Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Put enough pressure on him, however, and you can never be sure. Next Game: @ New England (2-1)

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1): The Bengals pulled the upset at home as predicted here (and many other places). It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t even cute. For three quarters the Bengals were pretty well handled by the Steelers, and then the Bengals offense showed up and made some plays. But a win is a win, and the Bengals are second in the division. It’s hard to tell what to believe about the Bengals this season. Their defense was still stout against the Steelers, but the Steelers offense has struggled mightily this season. And the Bengals offense only came together at the end. What we do know is that with a re-energized Carson Palmer, they can be trouble. Next Game: @ Cleveland (0-3).

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2): Read the rest of this entry »