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Ravens Rush vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals rush defense ranks 14th in the league allowing just over 100 yards per game. The Ravens rushing attack is 5th in the league topped 100 yards against the Patriots on just 17 carries. The real question is whether the Ravens will run or not. The Ravens lack of rushing attempts has hurt them several times this season (even in victories). And in limited attempts, stuffing the box on short yardage is that much easier (as the Pats showed). Edge: Ravens +1

Ravens Pass vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals pass rush has been excellent this year, especially from newly signed Antwaan Odom, who leads the NFL with 8 sacks. As a team, the Bengals have 12 sacks, putting them close to the top of the league. With Jared Gaither unlikely to play for the Ravens, rookie Michael Oher will move to the left side and handle Odom. If the Ravens can contain Odom, they have a good shot. Despite all the pressure, the Bengals have just two interceptions and are 24th in the league in pass defense. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Rush vs. Ravens Defense

Cedric Benson has been one of the league’s strongest runners for the last 10 weeks. No, really. Cedric Benson. But even so, Benson is no match for the Ravens top-ranked rush defense, which is showing true signs of greatness (under 60 yards on the ground per game). The Ravens will have to work to contain Benson and the Bengals, but not too hard. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Pass vs. Ravens Defense

The Bengals passing attack is not the monster it once was, but it is still a weapon. Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson are a dangerous combination when they get on the same page. Lucky for the Ravens, their defense has shown the ability to shut down a single big receiver when necessary. The Ravens will double Johnson and minimize his impact… they hope. The bigger question is can the Ravens force Palmer into making mistakes? He’s not a mistake-prone kind of guy. Edge: Even

Special Teams

Both units have been pretty sad. The Ravens have improved their kick coverage dramatically and their punt game is fantastic, but their returns have been weak and costly. The Bengals bring one of the league’s worst return defenses to Baltimore, opening up the possibility for some big plays. Edge: Even

Intangibles

The Ravens are great at home… the Bengals have been good at coming from behind and closing out games late, and they’ve done it before against the Ravens… the Ravens are hot after last week’s close loss to the Pats… the Bengals have been winning games they don’t deserve to win… Hmmm Edge: Ravens (+.5)

Prediction

My edge game has the Ravens +3.5… which, using this entirely not scientific or even empirical method, should mean a big win for the Ravens. The Ravens look to be the better team in every facet of their game. That might be purely based on match-ups (maybe the Bengals just match-up better against the Steelers for some reason?) or it might be that the Bengals don’t fit my match-ups mold. I don’t think the Bengals fit anyone’s molds. Their so close to 4-0 and in such crazy ways. That scares me.

Ravens 37, Bengals 13

1. Carson Palmer can beat the Ravens.

The Carson Palmer of 2009 may not be in the same form we’ve come to know, but he is still Carson Palmer. And Carson Palmer has the ability to throw the ball all over the Ravens when he’s feeling good. He’s done it before.

Overall, in nine games against the Ravens, Palmer has a quarterback rating of 87.6 with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Not outstanding, but not shabby either.

But those numbers are skewed a bit. Palmer either plays his best or his worst against Baltimore. Palmer has six games against the Ravens with a QB Rating over 90 – in four of those games his QB rating is well over 100. In the other three games, his rating is under 60. There’s no middle ground.

Again, this year’s Palmer may not be able to do that – the Bengals are not the offensive force they once were. But if he’s done it before, he can do it again.

2. The Bengals are… Special.

Special. That’s a nice way to put it, right? The Bengals are 3-1, and short of a fluke play in Denver in Week One, they would be undefeated. Against the Broncos, Packers and Steelers, that’s impressive.

But the Bengals have also been, well, special. They’re three wins are by a combined 13 points. Their last two games were won by the same score, 23-20, and both with late game-saving touchdown drives.

Statistically, they’re completely average: 21st in total offense and 17th in total defense. Technically, that’s almost worse than average. And all despite starting “so strong” defensively.

Even Chad Johnson has been ‘special’ this season. Two touchdowns last week but just three total catches. He’s been in and out all season long.

So what does all this mean? Um… not sure. It means that the Bengals winning games the hard way, but they are still winning games. So take it easy.

3.The Ravens Rebound.

For the first time this season the Ravens are playing after a loss. They’re also playing after a bit of a sour loss. The Ravens generally held their own in New England, but plenty of short-comings were exposed.

A good Ravens victory this week should have a number of changes from last week… (1) more rushing, , (2) improved returns, (3) a terrorizing defense in-control of itself.

That last one is the one to really keep an eye on. Can the Ravens continue to harass quarterbacks while keeping control of the penalties? If they relent, will the defense still be able to control opposing offenses?

I guess the bottom line here is that we are still waiting for an absolutely complete game from the Ravens – against someone other than the Browns. The Bengals provide that opportunity. Can the Ravens take it?

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1): The Bengals pulled the upset at home as predicted here (and many other places). It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t even cute. For three quarters the Bengals were pretty well handled by the Steelers, and then the Bengals offense showed up and made some plays. But a win is a win, and the Bengals are second in the division. It’s hard to tell what to believe about the Bengals this season. Their defense was still stout against the Steelers, but the Steelers offense has struggled mightily this season. And the Bengals offense only came together at the end. What we do know is that with a re-energized Carson Palmer, they can be trouble. Next Game: @ Cleveland (0-3).

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2): The Steelers lost back-to-back games for the first time since 2007 with their loss to Cincinnati on Sunday and are now two games in the hole to the Ravens for the division lead. It’s not entirely clear if this team is just struggling or if there’s something seriously wrong. The Steelers have been largely unsuccessful running the ball (Willie Parker’s 95 yards against the Bengals were mostly first half), Roethlisberger has been getting hit frequently and making mistakes, and the defense has shown weakness without Troy Polamalu. Jeff Reed missed yet another field goal. Things simply aren’t clicking in Pittsburgh. Things won’t get easier with San Diego coming to town, and still not Polamalu in the secondary. Next Game: vs. San Diego (2-1).

Cleveland Browns (0-3): The Browns look like the Browns… again. I’m not sure what the media is talking about when they say that Eric Mangini is “changing the personality” of the team, but I’m not seeing it. Mangini looks to have things just as sloppy as ever. His decision to pull Brady Quinn was just silly. The Browns defense was absolutely toothless against the Ravens. Things don’t get much easier for the Browns, they play the Bengals, Steelers, Packers and Bears before the bye. Their only chance at a win before that bye is in Buffalo, but even that is doubtful. Next Game: vs. Cincinnati (2-1).

Thumbs Up

Joe Flacco, Ravens. 347 yards, a touchdown, 71% completions. Flacco looked poised and unfazed by anything the Browns defense threw his way.

Kelley Washington, Ravens. Washington is tied for the team lead with 12 receptions, despite being the team’s third receiver.

Carson Palmer, Bengals. Palmer wasn’t spectacular against Pittsburgh, but he was effective when it mattered most.

Willie Parker, Steelers. Parker ran for almost 100 yards and caught two passes for 36 yards. He finally showed flashes of the “Fast”Willie Parker he used to be.

Thumbs Down

Steelers Defense and Ben Roethlisberger: Despite how nice the numbers might look, the Steelers signature has been playing close games and playing them perfectly. In Sunday’s game, neither of these units was anywhere close to perfect.

Derek Anderson, Browns. The one-time Pro Bowler may have been confused from his days with the Ravens.

Bengals Defense. The Bengals D was all the rave in recent weeks. And yet, that same defense let the Steelers walk all over them for nearly 400 yards and barely put a scratch on Roethlisberger.

Eric Mangini, Browns Coach. Has he put on weight?

Three Issues Upcoming…

How will Pittsburgh respond? Mike Tomlin hasn’t been in this position before. Most of the current Steelers roster probably isn’t used to this either. A losing record so early? Losing to the Bengals? It gets no easier with the Chargers coming to town. Philip Rivers decimated the Ravens, and the Steelers defense may not fair better without Polamalu. And the Steelers offense certainly has shown the ability to win a shoot out.

What will the Browns do at quarterback? Brady Quinn didn’t have much success in his first two games, but he hardly got a shot against the Ravens. Meanwhile, Derek Anderson seemed to give a spark to some of his offense, before turning the ball over three times. Both quarterbacks have to be suffering from shattered self-confidence, and based on his reputation, Eric Mangini isn’t the kind of coach that specializes in team unity or building players up.

Are the Bengals the Ravens biggest competition? The Bengals are likely to win this week against the Cleveland (we’d assume), but the Ravens have a rough game in New England. And then in Week 5 the division rivals meet. The Ravens certainly hope to still hold their one-game lead over the Bengals entering the head-to-head match-up, but seeing a pair of teams at 3-1 is not out of the question.

Baltimore Ravens (2-0). The Ravens offense appears for real. For the second straight week, the unit put up more than 30 points (all by the offense alone) and is now second in the league in points scored. In fact, if not for Drew Brees and the Saints, this team would probably be #1 overall. With the Browns coming to town, another 30 point week doesn’t appear out of the question. The question appears to be when this defense will show signs of the dominant force it once was. The Ravens are a popular pick for number in power polls across the country, but even local fans know there are signs that might not last long. This Week: vs. Browns (0-2).

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1). The Steelers lost a brutal defensive battle in Chicago to fall to 1-1. The defense was dominant throughout most of the game, but it was the Steelers offense that struggled. For the second straight week (and beginning the second straight season), the Steelers seem to have lost their rush attack. With an embattled offensive line as well, offensive production is falling to Big Ben, whose body can only take so many poundings. The Steelers had many opportunities to win this game, including a pair of Jeff Reed field goal misses, but never closed the door. Unlike last week, this is un-classic Steelers football. This Week: @ Cincinnati (1-1)

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1). The Bengals offense reappeared in Week 2 against the Packers, who they beat in Lambeau (always impressive). But it wasn’t Carson Palmer and the receivers driving the Bengals offense, it was Cedric Benson and the rush attack. Good for the Bengals that their rushing game seems back on track – bad for the Bengals that their division foes present some of the toughest rush defenses in the league. Good luck bringing that game to Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Antwan Odom finally showed up in the NFL (only six years late). Through two games Odom has seven sacks (including five against the Packers). You can be sure teams will adjust, but Odom has to be licking his chops looking at Big Ben’s sack numbers upcoming. This Week: vs. Pittsburgh (1-1)

Cleveland Browns (0-2). For the second straight week the Browns looked absolutely hapless on both sides of the ball. After a pair of decent first quarter drives that resulted in field goals, the Browns never scored again – or even threatened, really. The run game is defunct, led by an aging Jamal Lewis. The passing game is out of whack as well, Brady Quinn cannot seem to put it all together. Meanwhile, the Broncos ran the ball up and down the field and totaled 180 yards rushing. Combine that with Adrian Peterson’s 180 last week and we may be looking at the worst run defense in NFL history. Not a good time to go into Baltimore and meet the three-headed monster. This Week: @ Baltimore (2-0).

Making Gains:

Antwan Odom: As previously mentioned, 5 sacks (FIVE!) against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Sunday. Smart coaches will begin to adjust, unlike the Packers.

Willis McGahee: Averaging over 4 yards a carry in San Diego, finding the endzone twice for the second straight week. McGahee is showing signs of the player the Ravens traded for before the 2007 season. Add his success to the mix of Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain and the Ravens rush attack is downright terrifying.

Braylon Edwards: The Browns receiver is about the only bright spot on an otherwise dismal team and what looks to be a dismal season. Edwards top 90 yards on 6 receptions and is proving to be the Browns only legitimate threat.

Cedric Benson: The Bengals running back had a career day on Sunday, totaling more than 140 yards and approaching 5 yards per carry. If Benson and the Bengals can continue on the ground, the Bengals will be a force again offensively.

Slipping Away:

Jeff Reed: The Steelers kicker had a bad game. One of very few in his career. He’ll likely correct it, but the Steelers signature is mistake-free football, especially on Special Teams. If Reed is missing kicks, the Steelers are in trouble.

Brady Quinn: Quinn’s passer rating is under 70 through two games and there isn’t much sign of hope (except, perhaps, playing the Ravens pass defense). The golden child for the Browns is completing passes, but not any that are worth the effort.

Ravens Secondary: 440 yards in the air to Philip Rivers. The Ravens secondary was confused, out of position and unable to make plays. The only redeeming notes were two interceptions in the second half that saved an otherwise dreadful performance from being historically bad.

Pittsburgh Pass Rush: Where, oh where, has the defensive MVP gone? Through two games the Steelers have just two sacks – one by James Farrior and one by Aaron Smith. Note that names like Harrison, Woodley, Timmons… all missing. The Steelers built their defense on pressure. Without it, what are they?

Three Questions:

Can the Ravens dominate the way they should? Truly good teams beat truly bad teams, and they do so convincingly. The Ravens missed their first opportunity against the Chiefs. With the Browns coming to Baltimore, everything should be in place for a blowout. If the Ravens can’t deliver – be it because the defense is ineffective again or the offense stutters – the Ravens will begin to lose some rep.

Division Debacle: Can the Steelers right themselves? The AFC North faces itself this week – Browns at Ravens and Steelers at Bengals. Steelers-Bengals is clearly the more interesting of the two match-ups. If the Bengals can continue to rush the passer effectively and the Steelers cannot find a running game, it could definitely get interesting. More interesting will be how the Steelers would respond to a 1-2 start and a possible two game deficit to the Ravens.

Is Quinn still the man? The Brady Quinn era has faltered more than once. If Quinn fails to produce against the Ravens, or worse, if he crumbles against them, how long before the cheers for Derek Anderson return? My bet – by Monday.

Baltimore Ravens: W (1-0) against Chiefs (0-1). The Ravens aired it out and totaled more than 500 yards of total offense – good for best in the AFC and second best in the NFL. But we didn’t really learn too much about this Ravens team. Beating up on what may be the league’s worst team, and giving up some big plays at crucial times, doesn’t bode well. In short, the Ravens are still a mystery. Don’t bet on 500 yards against the Steelers. This Week: at San Diego (1-0).

Pittsburgh Steelers: W (1-0) against Titans (0-1). Classic Steelers football on Thursday. The defense took a few drives to find its feet, but shut the Titans down later in the game and never let things get out of hand. Big Ben and the offense took a few shots, but made the plays when they had to. Many fans had to be wondering why the Steelers were even in the game in the third quarter – but that’s how good football teams play. This week: at Chicago (0-1).

Cleveland Browns: L (0-1) against Vikings (1-0). The Browns introduced themselves as the division whipping boys this season with a blowout loss against Minnesota. The Vikings proved they are deserving of mentions as Super Bowl contenders, running and throwing all over the Browns. Brady Quinn and the offense showed some signs of life, but never made it count against a tough Vikings defense. This week: at Denver (1-0).

Cincinnati Bengals: L (0-1) against Broncos (1-0). The Bengals were 20 seconds away from one of the bigger upsets of the week against the Broncos. The Bengals defense was surprisingly stout against a decent Broncos offense, but they still managed to lose in ridiculous fashion – a great defensive deflection found its way into the hands of Brandon Stokley for a an 87 yard game-winner. This Week: at Green Bay (1-0).

Making Gains:

Joe Flacco, Ravens – First 300 yard game of his career, three touchdown passes. Take that “game manager” stereotype. We’ll see how long the passing-frenzy lasts, but for now, Flacco is showing he belongs atop the division with Big Ben and Pamer.

Josh Cribbs, Browns – Returned a punt for a TD against the Vikings for the only meaningful score by the Browns on Sunday. Cribbs is taking Devon Hester’s place as the best return man in the league, and he may be the only reason the Browns win a few games this season.

Troy Polamalu, Steelers – Injured and out for 3-6 weeks now. But his first quarter Thursday night was the the best 15 minutes of football you’ll ever see.

Todd Heap, Ravens – Re-established himself as one of the league’s best tight ends, catching five passes for over 70 yards and a touchdown. With Heap in gear, the Ravens offense can match up with anyone.

Slipping Away:

Carson Palmer, Bengals – Two interceptions against the Broncos, keeping the game close enough for the big play that changed it all. Palmer is going to have to work to regain his Pro Bowl form after his 2007 injury and missing most of 2008.

Willie Parker, Steelers – Fast Willie managed just 19 yards on 13 carries against the Titans. The Steelers inability to move the ball on the ground is a large part of why the Steelers were never able to separate and why Big Ben had to carry the team to another OT win.

Browns Defense – The Browns allowed Adrian Peterson to run all over them for a whopping 180 yards and 3 TDs. And despite getting 4 sacks on Brett Favre, they couldn’t control Favre or the Vikings receiving corps. Even against lesser runners, this defense is going to struggle and make for a looooong season in Cleveland.

What to Watch…

Road Tested: The entire division is on the road this week before beginning division play in Week 3. How will the Ravens and Steelers especially handle their first tests away from home? How much worse will the Browns and Bengals look without a friendly home crowd?

Offensive Resurgences: The Ravens face a much tougher defense this week in San Diego and the Steelers get another test in Chicago, how will both offenses handle the heavy pass rush?

Turnover Trouble: The entire division had issues with turnovers and big plays in Week 1. Can the Ravens and Steelers eliminate the mistakes or will they start to pay for them?