I was browsing ESPN’s coverage of the NFL this weekend and, of course, the Bengals-Ravens game upcoming, when a short paragraph caught my eye.

“The Ravens are actually the worst pass defense this year against No. 1 receivers, although they end up eighth in pass defense DVOA overall because their pass rush and coverage of other wide receivers have been so strong. The Ravens have given up touchdowns to Vincent Jackson, Randy Moss and Dwayne Bowe — and No. 1s (those three and Braylon Edwards) have a 73 percent catch rate against the Ravens (compared with the league-wide catch rate for No. 1 receivers of 55 percent).” (ESPN Sunday Countdown, Contributed by Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com)

[In the words of Mythbusters, CAUTION! Stat analysis to follow!]

Schatz is using completion percentage (catch rate) to #1 receivers to evaluate the Ravens success. But that catch rate is just a bad stat. Here are final numbers for the #1 receivers in the Ravens four games so far…

• Vincent Jackson: 6 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD
• Dwayne Bowe: 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD
• Randy Moss: 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD
• Braylon Edwards: 3 catches, 35 yards, 0 TD

With the exception of Jackson, who absolutely lit up the Ravens secondary with help from Philip Rivers, the Ravens have been pretty exceptional against #1 receivers. If the catch rate is high, but the completions rate is low, that points to the fact that QBs just aren’t throwing to their #1’s against the Ravens. Thinking back to Sunday against New England, I don’t remember Moss seeing more 4 balls thrown his way. So while the catch rate for Moss might be 75%, his final numbers were still very average.

Bottom line: I’ll take a high catch-rate with low thrown-to totals every day, especially against #1s. To me, this signals that the Ravens have been especially good against #1 receivers. Maybe it’s because the Ravens are doubling them up, maybe it’s because the Ravens are game-planning well. Either way, the ball is not finding the #1 very often. And that’s a good thing for Baltimore.

When you look at the catch-rate stat this way, it turns the above argument on its head. Opposing QBs are avoiding their #1 receivers against the Ravens (Tom Brady threw to 9 receivers, the Browns to 8). And they are actually completing more passes for more yards to back-ups and check-downs. QBs are getting the ball off, and getting yards. And that leads me to believe, and anyone who’s watched the Ravens will agree, that the pass rush has actually been weaker than expected.

So, to ESPN Sunday Countdown and FootballOutsiders.com… watch the games, not the stats. Football is not a ’statistically perfect sport’ the way baseball is.

And to the Ravens? Continue to control #1’s (here’s looking at you, Chad Johnson). The others won’t do much damage.

Offensive Game Ball: Derrick Mason. Actually, lots of good news to go around on offense. But for 800 career receptions and one of the most fun TD receptions in recent memory – it goes to the vet and the leader. Mason made some nice catches throughout the game, a few for first downs, a few classic outs. But his 72 yard reception, turning to the ball, shaking the defender and strutting into the endzone: priceless.

Yellow Game Ball: Mike Furrey, Browns. The Browns wide out actually had a decent game when all was said and done, totaling four catches for 40 yards. And a few of those catches stung the Ravens. What wasn’t so hot, though, was his reception on the Browns first play of the game. Furrey caught the ball crossing about five yards out and promptly planted his bum on the turf. Seeing Ray Lewis out of the corner of your eye, Mike? Take the hit. [Honorable Mention to Eric Mangini opting for the field goal with the score 27-0 in the fourth quarter.]

Don’t Blink Game Ball: Domonique Foxworth. Foxworth  helped get Brady Quinn benched with his first quarter pick. I’m not sure whether he was tipped off by coaches or just did his film study, but with Braylon Edwards running straight at him, trying to sell the fly route, Foxworth didn’t move. Seriously, he didn’t flinch a muscle. And when Edwards let up and turned for the hook, Foxworth coolly stepped in front and took the pick. He also did his best Ed Reed impersonation, perilously pitching the ball to Reed for a few extra yards on the return.

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Ravens Rush Attack vs. Browns Rush Defense

The Browns rush defense could be one of the worst in league history, even relative to other Browns defenses in recent memory. And as bad as they have been, the Texans are actually still worse at the moment, statistically. Regardless, the Browns have allowed more than 400 yards rushing in just two games. And the Ravens? Well, they only bring the league’s fourth best rush attack to the game. While no individual Raven is going to have Adrian Peterson-type numbers at the end of the day (180 yards and 3 TDs), you can bet that the Ravens are going to get as much as they can on the ground. Any of the Ravens three runners (Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain) could handle this defense alone. And with the help of the Ravens offensive line, which has been downright dominant on the ground this season, you can expect to see defenders blown off the ball play after play. Edge: Ravens

Ravens Pass Attack vs. Browns Pass Defense:

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Thursday is usually the day where we break down the big match-up or big story of the week. Usually. Honestly, there isn’t one story in the Ravens-Browns game coming up on Sunday worth an entire column. Not one. There’s just nothing too interesting in this match-up, nothing the Browns are about that is worth a few hundred words.

So instead, here are three half-hearted items that the Ravens need to think about heading into Sunday…

1.  Josh Cribbs. The Ravens kick and punt coverage improved in Week 2 against the dangerous Darren Sproles, thanks in large part to great kicks by both Steven Hauschka and Sam Koch. If there is one returner more dangerous than Sproles right now, it’s Cribbs. Sproles nearly broke a few big kick returns and his impact on field position hurt the Ravens defensive effort. The Ravens need to more than match their effort from last week to contain Cribbs.

2. Braylon Edwards. If you want to talk about big, fast receivers, you want to talk about Edwards. Personally, I’m still having nightmares about Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers, I can’t even handle thinking about Edwards. The only threat the Ravens need to consider when the Browns have the ball is Edwards. If Brady Quinn can put the ball in the air, Edwards has a good shot of bringing it down. Last week Edwards caught six passes for more than 90 yards in a loss.

3. The Big Play. Let’s do the math together. Cribbs plus Edwards equals a dangerous mix and a good possibility of some big plays. We saw in Week 1 how just a pair of big plays can make any game look close. One interception… one big pass… one kick/punt return… A mistake here, a mistake there; it all adds up. The Ravens biggest worry, and our biggest worry as fans, should be the possibility that our defense continues to let up the big play.

The Browns aren’t heavy on talent. They aren’t loaded with heart at the moment either. But it only takes one player and one play to change a game.  The Browns have more than a few individuals that can really make a difference even in the face of a floundering franchise.

But in the end… don’t bet against the Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens (2-0). The Ravens offense appears for real. For the second straight week, the unit put up more than 30 points (all by the offense alone) and is now second in the league in points scored. In fact, if not for Drew Brees and the Saints, this team would probably be #1 overall. With the Browns coming to town, another 30 point week doesn’t appear out of the question. The question appears to be when this defense will show signs of the dominant force it once was. The Ravens are a popular pick for number in power polls across the country, but even local fans know there are signs that might not last long. This Week: vs. Browns (0-2).

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1). The Steelers lost a brutal defensive battle in Chicago to fall to 1-1. The defense was dominant throughout most of the game, but it was the Steelers offense that struggled. For the second straight week (and beginning the second straight season), the Steelers seem to have lost their rush attack. With an embattled offensive line as well, offensive production is falling to Big Ben, whose body can only take so many poundings. The Steelers had many opportunities to win this game, including a pair of Jeff Reed field goal misses, but never closed the door. Unlike last week, this is un-classic Steelers football. This Week: @ Cincinnati (1-1) Read the rest of this entry »