So remember Rex Ryan and his vaunted defense? The one everyone here is crying to get back… the one with Bart Scott and Jim Leonard… the one that Greg Mattison isn’t man enough to inherit? Yeah, that one. Well, Rex and his D just got schooled by Miami’s Wildcat with Chad Henne at the helm.

And not just once. Not just twice. But three times over in the fourth quarter when it mattered most. Surprising in part because just last year Rex Ryan and the Ravens dominated the Dolphins in Miami twice, and the Wildcat was declared extinct.

Everyone’s vulnerable. It’s about making adjustments. The Ravens problems, but they have plenty to work with. It’s just not guaranteed. It takes time, it takes effort. There is a learning curve. Have patience.

Joe Flacco had his worst game of the 2009 season on Sunday against the Bengals. While he completed more than 70% of his passes, only 4 of those completions went to receivers. Flacco also threw two interceptions, one on the Ravens final offensive play.

It wasn’t an awful performance, but it was not the Joe Cool performance Ravens fans have become accustomed to.  For the second week in a row, Flacco threw an interception in the red zone – wasting a Ravens scoring opportunity. Last week, miscommunication with Mark Clayton caused Flacco to throw a ball outside while Clayton went inside. This week, Flacco rushed his opportunity and failed to read CB Jonathan Joseph cutting underneath Todd Heap’s route.

That opening drive by the Ravens was their best of the game – though it came apart in its final plays with a false start on center Matt Birk and an unnecessary timeout. Early in the drive, Flacco completed 4 of 5 passes and the Ravens were moving with some consistency.

After the interception, however, Flacco and the offense really lost their focus. Flacco seemed timid when it came to throwing downfield and to his receivers; he rushed his reads and settled for the check-down too often. And unlike last week in New England, where Flacco seemed to be the offense’s general, this week we saw Flacco flustered and apparently outmatched.

Not many people are talking about Flacco’s play in this game; it’s been too easy to blame the defense for blowing a late lead. But Flacco had a subpar game.

The good news is that Flacco is still this franchise’s best chance to win. Flacco can and will provide for this offense. He just needs to settle down again and find the calmness that earned him the nickname Joe Cool. He can make any throw you need him to, if he is patient enough to make his reads and trust his line.

There’s a lot of finger pointing going on in Baltimore right now. Everyone thinks they know what the Ravens biggest problem is and why the Ravens lost on Sunday. Everyone is happy to give more than their two cents.

So far the most popular answer I’ve heard is the Ravens “weak” secondary. Just about everyone is pointing to a secondary that has allowed big numbers to big names. From Foxworth’s lack of physicality to Carr’s stumbles to Walker’s penalties.

In reality, we should be placing blame on every single Ravens player and coach that took the field on Sunday. They all failed. They all had opportunities and they all missed them. What we saw yesterday was exactly the opposite of the sharp, smart and dangerous Ravens teams we have come to know and love.

Following a nasty loss in New England last week, everyone expected the Ravens to bounce back with a vengeance and obliterate the Bengals. Instead, we got a lackluster effort. We got a team that looked too comfortable for its own good and then uncomfortable when it mattered most.

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Only two game balls to give out today… well, make that three…

Offensive Game Ball: Ray Rice. Rice ran fairly well behind an overpowered offensive line and made the offense’s biggest play for its only score. Without him, the Ravens offense doesn’t put a point on the board.

Defensive Game Ball: Ed Reed. Reed played his best game of the year – and it wasn’t just the pick-six or the forced fumble. He actually made some tackles: real tackles, not the kind where he went low to protect himself.

The Half-Assed Ball: Everyone Else. The Ravens were outplayed in every aspect of this game (except long-snapper play). There can be no excuses. The Ravens are better than what they showed yesterday. They have to learn that it’s not just about being a favorite and having the right pieces – you actually have to show up on Sunday.

Next week in Minnesota will be the key… but I expect a very different Ravens team to show up in Cincinnati in a few weeks.

Stupid Penalties: 40%

Second straight week the Ravens can thank themselves and their absolute lack of discipline for their problems. The officials were not good, but that’s not an excuse. The Ravens apparently didn’t learn anything from last week’s game in New England. I’m still a bit baffled by Steve Tasker’s relentless defense of the officiating – the Frank Walker pass interference and Chad Ochocinco lack of interference calls were particularly questionable, and Tasker failed to even acknowledge the possibility. Meanwhile, the Ravens gave away first downs and yards, play after play. [Is defensive illegal formation even a penalty, by the way?]

Stupid Players: 30%

Missed tackles. Missed coverages. Leaving holes wide open. Dropping passes. There are no excuses for the Ravens pathetic play today. As much as players and fans may want to be upset at the officials,  the Ravens came to the game today with no emotion and no heart. Half the game, I wasn’t even sure the defense wanted to be there – the secondary was consistently out of position and failed to find the ball while the front seven struggled to find their zones.

Stupid Gameplan: 20%

Noticing a trend yet? This whole game was stupid by the Ravens. I’m not sure what Cam Cameron’s offensive game plan was today. It’s become more and more clear to me that the offense simply does not have a steady game plan. In early games we dismissed the funky offensive style as “taking advantage of weak opponents,” but in two straight losses to good teams, there has been no “settling” of the gameplan. There were stretches where the Ravens looked far too conservative. At other times the Ravens looked far too aggressive. At no point did the Ravens offense look like the force it had been for the season’s first four weeks.

(Stupid) Disappearing Players: 9%

Derrick Mason. Willis McGahee. Kelley Washington. Terrell Suggs. Kelly Gregg. Fabian Washington. Le’Ron McClain. Were any of these guys even on the field today? Did McGahee even get a touch? Did Mason? Washington and McClain each had a moment or two… but I don’t even remember seeing Washington on the field more than two or three times.

Stupid Steve Tasker: 1%

Okay, so maybe he had nothing to do with the Ravens losing, but he certainly had a lot to do with me not enjoying the game. Gus Johnson is bad. Steve Tasker is just dreadful. I’m not sure how, but he’s actually gotten worse since the Ravens earlier games. Do they even show up before Sunday?

I was browsing ESPN’s coverage of the NFL this weekend and, of course, the Bengals-Ravens game upcoming, when a short paragraph caught my eye.

“The Ravens are actually the worst pass defense this year against No. 1 receivers, although they end up eighth in pass defense DVOA overall because their pass rush and coverage of other wide receivers have been so strong. The Ravens have given up touchdowns to Vincent Jackson, Randy Moss and Dwayne Bowe — and No. 1s (those three and Braylon Edwards) have a 73 percent catch rate against the Ravens (compared with the league-wide catch rate for No. 1 receivers of 55 percent).” (ESPN Sunday Countdown, Contributed by Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com)

[In the words of Mythbusters, CAUTION! Stat analysis to follow!]

Schatz is using completion percentage (catch rate) to #1 receivers to evaluate the Ravens success. But that catch rate is just a bad stat. Here are final numbers for the #1 receivers in the Ravens four games so far…

• Vincent Jackson: 6 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD
• Dwayne Bowe: 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD
• Randy Moss: 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD
• Braylon Edwards: 3 catches, 35 yards, 0 TD

With the exception of Jackson, who absolutely lit up the Ravens secondary with help from Philip Rivers, the Ravens have been pretty exceptional against #1 receivers. If the catch rate is high, but the completions rate is low, that points to the fact that QBs just aren’t throwing to their #1’s against the Ravens. Thinking back to Sunday against New England, I don’t remember Moss seeing more 4 balls thrown his way. So while the catch rate for Moss might be 75%, his final numbers were still very average.

Bottom line: I’ll take a high catch-rate with low thrown-to totals every day, especially against #1s. To me, this signals that the Ravens have been especially good against #1 receivers. Maybe it’s because the Ravens are doubling them up, maybe it’s because the Ravens are game-planning well. Either way, the ball is not finding the #1 very often. And that’s a good thing for Baltimore.

When you look at the catch-rate stat this way, it turns the above argument on its head. Opposing QBs are avoiding their #1 receivers against the Ravens (Tom Brady threw to 9 receivers, the Browns to 8). And they are actually completing more passes for more yards to back-ups and check-downs. QBs are getting the ball off, and getting yards. And that leads me to believe, and anyone who’s watched the Ravens will agree, that the pass rush has actually been weaker than expected.

So, to ESPN Sunday Countdown and FootballOutsiders.com… watch the games, not the stats. Football is not a ’statistically perfect sport’ the way baseball is.

And to the Ravens? Continue to control #1’s (here’s looking at you, Chad Johnson). The others won’t do much damage.

There’s just hours left to vote for One Winning Drive. Click the link above and get your vote in! We can win!! (and there’s nothing up for grabs but the title of Maryland’s Best Sports Blog).

Ravens Rush vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals rush defense ranks 14th in the league allowing just over 100 yards per game. The Ravens rushing attack is 5th in the league topped 100 yards against the Patriots on just 17 carries. The real question is whether the Ravens will run or not. The Ravens lack of rushing attempts has hurt them several times this season (even in victories). And in limited attempts, stuffing the box on short yardage is that much easier (as the Pats showed). Edge: Ravens +1

Ravens Pass vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals pass rush has been excellent this year, especially from newly signed Antwaan Odom, who leads the NFL with 8 sacks. As a team, the Bengals have 12 sacks, putting them close to the top of the league. With Jared Gaither unlikely to play for the Ravens, rookie Michael Oher will move to the left side and handle Odom. If the Ravens can contain Odom, they have a good shot. Despite all the pressure, the Bengals have just two interceptions and are 24th in the league in pass defense. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Rush vs. Ravens Defense

Cedric Benson has been one of the league’s strongest runners for the last 10 weeks. No, really. Cedric Benson. But even so, Benson is no match for the Ravens top-ranked rush defense, which is showing true signs of greatness (under 60 yards on the ground per game). The Ravens will have to work to contain Benson and the Bengals, but not too hard. Edge: Ravens +1

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Three story lines to follow as the Bengals come to Baltimore on Sunday…

1. Carson Palmer can beat the Ravens.

The Carson Palmer of 2009 may not be in the same form we’ve come to know, but he is still Carson Palmer. And Carson Palmer has the ability to throw the ball all over the Ravens when he’s feeling good. He’s done it before.

Overall, in nine games against the Ravens, Palmer has a quarterback rating of 87.6 with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Not outstanding, but not shabby either.

But those numbers are skewed a bit. Palmer either plays his best or his worst against Baltimore. Palmer has six games against the Ravens with a QB Rating over 90 – in four of those games his QB rating is well over 100. In the other three games, his rating is under 60. There’s no middle ground.

Again, this year’s Palmer may not be able to do that – the Bengals are not the offensive force they once were. But if he’s done it before, he can do it again.

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Hey Everybody,

As many of you know, this blog has been nominated for a Baltimore Sun award called a Mobbie (Maryland’s Outstanding Blogs). We started slow but have risen strongly through the course of the contest.

Right now we are ranked as the #2 Ravens blog and #3 Sports blog! Our goal from the very beginning was to be top three in any category we were in, but with the end so near, we have the win in our sights in at least one of these categories.

We know many of you have been voting frequently and we thank you so much! With two days left, we just need a strong push to the finish… visit www.baltimoresun.com/mobbies or click the picture to the right and vote for One Winning Drive!

Thanks for your readership and support!

Baltimore Ravens (3-1): Tough loss in New England, but a good showing. Despite a number of problems and mistakes, the Ravens were just yards away from a victory in the game’s final moments. The defense did an acceptable job defending against Tom Brady and his receivers. Still waiting for and expecting this team to get back to its ground-game roots. Next Game: vs. Bengals (3-1)

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1): The Bengals barely escaped the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday, winning in overtime on a Shayne Graham field goal. Still curious how the Bengals failed to run away with the game, though, as they had a big lead early following a series of Cleveland turnovers. Also wondering what kind of team lets the Browns back into it. Next Game: @ Ravens (3-1)

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2): Read the rest of this entry »