I was browsing ESPN’s coverage of the NFL this weekend and, of course, the Bengals-Ravens game upcoming, when a short paragraph caught my eye.

“The Ravens are actually the worst pass defense this year against No. 1 receivers, although they end up eighth in pass defense DVOA overall because their pass rush and coverage of other wide receivers have been so strong. The Ravens have given up touchdowns to Vincent Jackson, Randy Moss and Dwayne Bowe — and No. 1s (those three and Braylon Edwards) have a 73 percent catch rate against the Ravens (compared with the league-wide catch rate for No. 1 receivers of 55 percent).” (ESPN Sunday Countdown, Contributed by Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com)

[In the words of Mythbusters, CAUTION! Stat analysis to follow!]

Schatz is using completion percentage (catch rate) to #1 receivers to evaluate the Ravens success. But that catch rate is just a bad stat. Here are final numbers for the #1 receivers in the Ravens four games so far…

• Vincent Jackson: 6 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD
• Dwayne Bowe: 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD
• Randy Moss: 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD
• Braylon Edwards: 3 catches, 35 yards, 0 TD

With the exception of Jackson, who absolutely lit up the Ravens secondary with help from Philip Rivers, the Ravens have been pretty exceptional against #1 receivers. If the catch rate is high, but the completions rate is low, that points to the fact that QBs just aren’t throwing to their #1’s against the Ravens. Thinking back to Sunday against New England, I don’t remember Moss seeing more 4 balls thrown his way. So while the catch rate for Moss might be 75%, his final numbers were still very average.

Bottom line: I’ll take a high catch-rate with low thrown-to totals every day, especially against #1s. To me, this signals that the Ravens have been especially good against #1 receivers. Maybe it’s because the Ravens are doubling them up, maybe it’s because the Ravens are game-planning well. Either way, the ball is not finding the #1 very often. And that’s a good thing for Baltimore.

When you look at the catch-rate stat this way, it turns the above argument on its head. Opposing QBs are avoiding their #1 receivers against the Ravens (Tom Brady threw to 9 receivers, the Browns to 8). And they are actually completing more passes for more yards to back-ups and check-downs. QBs are getting the ball off, and getting yards. And that leads me to believe, and anyone who’s watched the Ravens will agree, that the pass rush has actually been weaker than expected.

So, to ESPN Sunday Countdown and FootballOutsiders.com… watch the games, not the stats. Football is not a ’statistically perfect sport’ the way baseball is.

And to the Ravens? Continue to control #1’s (here’s looking at you, Chad Johnson). The others won’t do much damage.

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Ravens Rush vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals rush defense ranks 14th in the league allowing just over 100 yards per game. The Ravens rushing attack is 5th in the league topped 100 yards against the Patriots on just 17 carries. The real question is whether the Ravens will run or not. The Ravens lack of rushing attempts has hurt them several times this season (even in victories). And in limited attempts, stuffing the box on short yardage is that much easier (as the Pats showed). Edge: Ravens +1

Ravens Pass vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals pass rush has been excellent this year, especially from newly signed Antwaan Odom, who leads the NFL with 8 sacks. As a team, the Bengals have 12 sacks, putting them close to the top of the league. With Jared Gaither unlikely to play for the Ravens, rookie Michael Oher will move to the left side and handle Odom. If the Ravens can contain Odom, they have a good shot. Despite all the pressure, the Bengals have just two interceptions and are 24th in the league in pass defense. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Rush vs. Ravens Defense

Cedric Benson has been one of the league’s strongest runners for the last 10 weeks. No, really. Cedric Benson. But even so, Benson is no match for the Ravens top-ranked rush defense, which is showing true signs of greatness (under 60 yards on the ground per game). The Ravens will have to work to contain Benson and the Bengals, but not too hard. Edge: Ravens +1

Read the rest of this entry »

With the Texans heading to Arizona this weekend to play the Cardinals, there’s been a popular storyline emerging about a match-up of the league’s best receivers. The Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald is the current ‘it’ receiver after his ridiculous playoff streak last season, while Andre Johnson has been considered one of the league’s best players on a bad team.

So who’s the best receiver in the league?

As always, for me, it depends on how you define best.

Statistically in their career? Randy Moss. In the last three seasons? Probably Fitzgerald, with Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne close behind. Biggest play maker over their career? Probably Moss again.

Biggest play maker right now? Probably a guy that’s been overshadowed by Fitzgerald recently, his teammate Anquan Boldin.

Boldin’s attitude and history of injury take him out of the equation for some, but his natural ability is freakish. He averages more yards per game than Fitzgerald and more yards after catch (far more in fact, 5.4 to Fitzgerald’s 3.6). The argument could be made that Fitzgerald has simply stolen the spotlight thanks to Boldin’s injuries.

Personally, Andre Johnson hardly figures into the equation. Johnson has made some spectacular plays and long been the Texans lone shining star. But a league star he is not. And that is taking nothing away from his monstrous season in 2008, when he averaged nearly 100 yards per game and scored eight touchdowns.

But, if you were to ask me who I would want on my team right now to build an offense around, it would be Fitzgerald. No questions asked. Raw talent, speed, smart, great route runner and little attitude to boot. Tell me I’m wrong.

Three story lines to follow as the Bengals come to Baltimore on Sunday…

1. Carson Palmer can beat the Ravens.

The Carson Palmer of 2009 may not be in the same form we’ve come to know, but he is still Carson Palmer. And Carson Palmer has the ability to throw the ball all over the Ravens when he’s feeling good. He’s done it before.

Overall, in nine games against the Ravens, Palmer has a quarterback rating of 87.6 with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Not outstanding, but not shabby either.

But those numbers are skewed a bit. Palmer either plays his best or his worst against Baltimore. Palmer has six games against the Ravens with a QB Rating over 90 – in four of those games his QB rating is well over 100. In the other three games, his rating is under 60. There’s no middle ground.

Again, this year’s Palmer may not be able to do that – the Bengals are not the offensive force they once were. But if he’s done it before, he can do it again.

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Hey Everybody,

As many of you know, this blog has been nominated for a Baltimore Sun award called a Mobbie (Maryland’s Outstanding Blogs). We started slow but have risen strongly through the course of the contest.

Right now we are ranked as the #2 Ravens blog and #3 Sports blog! Our goal from the very beginning was to be top three in any category we were in, but with the end so near, we have the win in our sights in at least one of these categories.

We know many of you have been voting frequently and we thank you so much! With two days left, we just need a strong push to the finish… visit www.baltimoresun.com/mobbies or click the picture to the right and vote for One Winning Drive!

Thanks for your readership and support!

Baltimore Ravens (3-1): Tough loss in New England, but a good showing. Despite a number of problems and mistakes, the Ravens were just yards away from a victory in the game’s final moments. The defense did an acceptable job defending against Tom Brady and his receivers. Still waiting for and expecting this team to get back to its ground-game roots. Next Game: vs. Bengals (3-1)

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1): The Bengals barely escaped the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday, winning in overtime on a Shayne Graham field goal. Still curious how the Bengals failed to run away with the game, though, as they had a big lead early following a series of Cleveland turnovers. Also wondering what kind of team lets the Browns back into it. Next Game: @ Ravens (3-1)

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2): Read the rest of this entry »

Tony Fein, a member of the Baltimore Ravens during the 2009 preseason, died Tuesday morning in Port Orchard, Wash., according to his agent. No immediate details were available concerning Fein’s death, his agent, Milton D. Hobbs, said. Fein, 27, was an undrafted rookie free agent who was released by the Ravens during final cuts on Sept. 5. Fein was an Iraqi war veteran.

Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis and Safety Ed Reed will not be fined for their post-game remarks criticizing the officials in the team’s 27-21 loss to the Patriots. Read more here.

Quite a surprise, actually. Lewis in particular just went off on the officials in the game. But in reality, both players were criticizing the league’s recent moves to protect quarterbacks. As Lewis sees it, the new rules and interpretations make it impossible for a player to hit a quarterback without getting flagged.

No word yet on whether John Harbaugh will be fined for his in-game tantrum, which drew a personal foul, and his post-game remarks which were similar to Lewis and Reed. I would expect Harbaugh to see a lighter paycheck this week.

Fair is Fair. It’s been pretty well documented elsewhere, but the Ravens simply didn’t do the right things to win Sunday’s game. Somehow, though, at game’s end, the Ravens were still just yards away from winning (or perhaps just one Mark Clayton catch away). All told, that says a lot of good things about the Ravens. For as poorly as they played (from special teams to penalties), they were still right there with a chance in the final moments – and not a hail mary chance, a legitimate chance.

Today as power rankings are released we’re already seeing the Ravens fall a bit, but not too far. ESPN has the Ravens 7th, right behind New England.

Run the Damn Ball, Cam. I’m still trying to decide whether the Ravens failure to run the ball was the result of in-game panic or just a bad game plan. My bet is a bit of both, with a pinch of “inability to adjust” as well. Cameron’s game plan was to pass frequently. As much as we may not like that in hindsight, it actually worked fairly well for most of the game. Minus a Joe Flacco miscommunication leading to an interception, the passing game looked alright.

But the pass-favored attack was made worse by an early deficit. Last year one of the Ravens’ greatest strengths was that they never panicked, even when down early. On Sunday, it seemed quite the opposite. Some early scoring by the Pats had the Ravens scattered.

Finally, even when the Ravens seemed to regain some control over the game in the second half, they failed to reset themselves and their gameplan. One big reason to run the ball is not just to balance the defense, but even a mediocre run nets yardage. 3rd and 7 looks so much friendlier than 3rd and 10.

The Refs. Still not a fan of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed mouthing off – even if I agree with the broader sentiment that quarterbacks are overprotected. And I’m not a fan of John Harbaugh getting in on the action, even in a more subdued, passive way than he did on the field.

It has been interesting, however, to see the national reaction to the Terrell Suggs personal foul in particular. No one seems to like it. In a Baltimore Sun article today the wording of the rule was emphasized – contact to the quarterback below the knee must be forcible to warrant a penalty. Suggs’ contact certainly wasn’t forcible.

I’ve heard it argued that had Brady not moved his leg, it would have been much worse. But last I checked, the NFL didn’t give penalties for almost pass interference and almost facemasks. It’s a fast game, what looks like it could be a penalty one instant can very clearly change.