Ravens Rush vs. Vikings Defense: The Ravens can run the ball, or so I believe. But the Bengals managed to stop them and they’ve chosen not to run against other opponents. Put that against the Williams crew and the only rush defense that can rival the Ravens. Edge: Even

Ravens Pass vs. Vikings Defense: The loss of Jared Gaither might be hurt more than expected, especially with Jared Allen rushing the corner. The Vikings are talented but Joe Cool and the Ravens can win the match-ups if given time. Edge: Even

Vikings Rush vs. Ravens Defense: The Ravens gave up 100 yards to a single back for the first time in nearly 40 games last week. If there’s any back I fear being able to do that again, it’s probably the Vikings Adrian Peterson. But the Ravens can shut him down if they play up to their ability. Edge: Even

Vikings Pass vs. Ravens Defense: Brett Favre has been throwing the ball like a 35 year old recently (sorry, mandatory age joke taken care of). The Vikings still plan to keep the ball out of Favre’s hands as much as possible though. The Ravens D needs a good rush and a pick-me-up game. Edge: Even

Special Teams: The Ravens are still seeking a solid return man (perhaps Ladarius Webb will get more than a pair of returns this week). Ravens punter Sam Koch continues to make a bid for team MVP (like on most Ravens teams). The Vikings are solid all around. Ryan Longwell is a great veteran kicker. Young’n Percy Harvin is making a splash on returns. The Ravens must contain him.  Edge: Even

Micellaneous: The Ravens have lost two straight (about the same time they lost three straight last year, eh?)… Joe Flacco is still Mr. Unshakable on the road… The Vikings have one of the best home field advantages in the league thanks to the dome… The Vikings are one of five unbeatens left in the league… The combined record the Vikings opponents is 7-17. Edge: Vikings (+1)

Official Prediction

This is about as even as two teams are going to match-up in the NFL; they literally go strength-for-strength, player-for-player. A pair of nice defenses, great running games and a great quarterback match-up. In fact, I’m surprised there isn’t more talk about Flacco and Favre. C’mon, both F names, both undervalued coming out of college… right? Ok, stretch. But Flacco is emerging as one of the game’s best and Favre is trying to hold his value.

This is almost too close to call. I want to believe the Ravens will win this game (and they certainly can if they play to their strengths), but it’s hard to pick a team that has faded in the stretch for two straight games. The Ravens will play well, but it won’t be enough. The rebound will have to wait until after the bye. Vikings 23, Ravens 20.

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Ravens Rush vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals rush defense ranks 14th in the league allowing just over 100 yards per game. The Ravens rushing attack is 5th in the league topped 100 yards against the Patriots on just 17 carries. The real question is whether the Ravens will run or not. The Ravens lack of rushing attempts has hurt them several times this season (even in victories). And in limited attempts, stuffing the box on short yardage is that much easier (as the Pats showed). Edge: Ravens +1

Ravens Pass vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals pass rush has been excellent this year, especially from newly signed Antwaan Odom, who leads the NFL with 8 sacks. As a team, the Bengals have 12 sacks, putting them close to the top of the league. With Jared Gaither unlikely to play for the Ravens, rookie Michael Oher will move to the left side and handle Odom. If the Ravens can contain Odom, they have a good shot. Despite all the pressure, the Bengals have just two interceptions and are 24th in the league in pass defense. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Rush vs. Ravens Defense

Cedric Benson has been one of the league’s strongest runners for the last 10 weeks. No, really. Cedric Benson. But even so, Benson is no match for the Ravens top-ranked rush defense, which is showing true signs of greatness (under 60 yards on the ground per game). The Ravens will have to work to contain Benson and the Bengals, but not too hard. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Pass vs. Ravens Defense

The Bengals passing attack is not the monster it once was, but it is still a weapon. Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson are a dangerous combination when they get on the same page. Lucky for the Ravens, their defense has shown the ability to shut down a single big receiver when necessary. The Ravens will double Johnson and minimize his impact… they hope. The bigger question is can the Ravens force Palmer into making mistakes? He’s not a mistake-prone kind of guy. Edge: Even

Special Teams

Both units have been pretty sad. The Ravens have improved their kick coverage dramatically and their punt game is fantastic, but their returns have been weak and costly. The Bengals bring one of the league’s worst return defenses to Baltimore, opening up the possibility for some big plays. Edge: Even

Intangibles

The Ravens are great at home… the Bengals have been good at coming from behind and closing out games late, and they’ve done it before against the Ravens… the Ravens are hot after last week’s close loss to the Pats… the Bengals have been winning games they don’t deserve to win… Hmmm Edge: Ravens (+.5)

Prediction

My edge game has the Ravens +3.5… which, using this entirely not scientific or even empirical method, should mean a big win for the Ravens. The Ravens look to be the better team in every facet of their game. That might be purely based on match-ups (maybe the Bengals just match-up better against the Steelers for some reason?) or it might be that the Bengals don’t fit my match-ups mold. I don’t think the Bengals fit anyone’s molds. Their so close to 4-0 and in such crazy ways. That scares me.

Ravens 37, Bengals 13

The Ravens bring one of the league’s best rush attacks to New England. Everyone should be used to this by now. Despite throwing more than they’ve run in their three games this season, the Ravens rushing attack is still ranked 5th in the league. They also lead the league in rushing touchdowns. New England’s rush defense is much improved from last year, ranking 10th in the league presently and having allowed just one rushing touchdown. But the Patriots will struggle to contain the Ravens flexible rushing attack and formidable offensive line. Edge: Ravens (+2)

Ravens Pass vs. Patriots Defense

The key to the Ravens passing attack this season hasn’t been Joe Flacco. It hasn’t really been the receivers either. Though, both groups have been outstanding and have done more than their part to help the unit along. But the key to the Ravens passing game this season has been the offensive line. The real value of such a solid line is the versatility its gives the rest of the offense: enter Todd Heap, Kelley Washington (who even knew we were allowed to have three receivers on the field at once?) and even LJ Smith last week. Add a group of rushers that can catch the ball coming out of the backfield and this passing game is hard to handle. The Patriots pass defense has been solid, but imperfect. They are short on sacks and interceptions (zero!) and are allowing opposing quarterbacks a rating of 98.4. Edge: Ravens (+1)

Patriots Rush vs. Ravens Defense

The Patriots rushing attack has always been relatively weak, especially in comparison to its vaunted passing game. The Patriots rushing game these days features long-time veteran and Ravens adversary Fred Taylor along side the younger bruiser Laurence Maroney.  And that’s not a combination to turn your nose up to. Taylor ran for over 100 yards against the Falcons last week. It’s clear that despite some early season hesitancy, Bill Belichick is moving his team back towards the run. But the Ravens defense is as good as they come against the run. Inside you meet Haloti Ngata and Kelly Gregg; anywhere else you meet one of the league’s best corps of linebackers. If the Ravens can force the Patriots to abandon the run early – as they did against New York two weeks ago – they’ll be in good shape. Edge: Ravens (+1)

Patriots Pass vs. Ravens Defense

The Patriots passing game is among the league’s best. That’s what Tom Brady and Randy Moss do for a team. Brady has been sacked just once this year, despite the talk of his “shaky” start. So it might be a bit much to expect the Ravens to be able to really get to Brady. But you don’t have to sack a quarterback to force mistakes. Even if they can’t get Brady while he still has the ball, hitting him soon after should do the trick. Downfield, the Ravens don’t have much of an answer to the Patriots receivers – at least not Moss. Moss is bigger and stronger than anyone the Ravens secondary can offer. The key for the Ravens will be to keep their speedy defensive backs in Moss’ face, and then get lots of help over the top from Ed Reed and Dawan Landry. It is possible to make Randy Moss disappear; it’s just not easy. Edge: Patriots (+2)

Special Teams

Despite early season troubles, the Ravens special teams have come around a good bit. The return game could use work, but it won’t hurt the Ravens. And thanks to Sam Koch, the Ravens can play the field position game between kick-offs.  The Patriots are equally average.  Their returners are fine, not special. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski is one of the league’s better young kickers, but you won’t be comparing him to Vinatieri or even Stover anytime soon. Edge: Even

Intangibles

The Ravens have never beaten the Patriots. … The Patriots own one of the best homefield advantages in football. … The Ravens are good on the road, but better at home.  … The Ravens though are good as underdogs, even if by just a point and a half. … National experts are leaning Ravens, local experts (even in Baltimore) are leaning Patriots… Edge: Patriots (+1)

Prediction

You’ll notice I added a plus-rating in parentheses to each edge this week – just trying it out. Not all edges are created equal, you see. By my math, the final total goes to the Ravens, +1. What does that mean, exactly? Not sure yet. But here’s what I’m thinking.

I’m thinking that I have this gut feeling that the Ravens are going to continue to score points. They have been scoring all kinds of ways this season – long passes and runs that take just second as well as long drive that can take nearly a quarter. The Ravens balance offensively is going to challenge every defense they face. It’s simple football philosophy: a defense cannot protect against everything. And right now, the Ravens offense has just about everything.

So, the Ravens are going to score. The Patriots are going to score when they have the ball as well, there’s just not much answer to Brady-to-Moss. But the Ravens are going to eat clock and keep the Pats off the field, every chance they get. And that’s something Tom Brady alone cannot fix. The Ravens win by about a touchdown. Ravens 31, Patriots 24.

Familiar why? Because they are built around a stud second-year quarterback, a dominant run game, and a stout defense. Sound familiar, Ravens? The Ravens have plenty going for them, but it won’t be easy.

2. The Ravens balance on offense gives them hope. The Ravens offensive attack this season might be the league’s most balanced. It’s not just balanced pass-to-rush. The rushing game itself is brilliantly balanced between three runners of varying styles – the speedy Ray Rice, the deceptive Willis McGahee, and the powerful Le’Ron McClain. The team may not be able to put all three on the field for every play, but each is strong enough to keep this offense moving on its own. Even in pass heavy victories against the Chiefs and Browns, the Ravens runners have made an impact.

But the real key to the Ravens success on offense is its line. The Ravens line is, for the first time ever, a good at pass protection as it is at opening holes for the running game. The Ravens can open up three and four receiver sets and truly trouble defenses.

3. The Ravens have plenty of holes. Not sure why the Ravens seem to be such favorites in this game around the country, but they are getting a lot of love. I’m not even entirely against it, but it is a bit curious. It was just two weeks ago that Philip Rivers threw for 440 yards against a battered Ravens secondary – without several starters on his offensive line. The Pats offer just as many problems: a steady, deadly quarterback in Tom Brady; a corps of tall, speedy receivers featuring Randy Moss; and a powerful offensive line that specializes in pass blocking.

If the Ravens pass rush can’t get to Brady, be wary. If the Ravens secondary can’t handle Moss, be wary. The hope for the Ravens here is that thanks to less-than-super rushing game in New England, the Ravens may be able to devote all of their efforts to the pass rush. But good luck.

Ravens Rush Attack vs. Browns Rush Defense

The Browns rush defense could be one of the worst in league history, even relative to other Browns defenses in recent memory. And as bad as they have been, the Texans are actually still worse at the moment, statistically. Regardless, the Browns have allowed more than 400 yards rushing in just two games. And the Ravens? Well, they only bring the league’s fourth best rush attack to the game. While no individual Raven is going to have Adrian Peterson-type numbers at the end of the day (180 yards and 3 TDs), you can bet that the Ravens are going to get as much as they can on the ground. Any of the Ravens three runners (Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain) could handle this defense alone. And with the help of the Ravens offensive line, which has been downright dominant on the ground this season, you can expect to see defenders blown off the ball play after play. Edge: Ravens

Ravens Pass Attack vs. Browns Pass Defense:

Compared their rush defense, the Browns pass defense is a super-star unit. At present, the Browns pass defense is seventh in the league, allowing just over 170 yards passing per game. But the Browns apparent success in stopping the pass is a bit of a magic act. The Browns have four sacks in two games and no interceptions. They are not getting pressure, nor are they finding the ball. In reality, it’s not that the Browns are able to stop the pass, but more that opponents find it easier (and safer) to keep the ball on the ground. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco and the Ravens pass attack continues to grow. Flacco’s numbers in San Diego were not outstanding, but he did find the endzone twice and converted a number of important third downs. The receivers are finding their niches in the unit. And the offensive line has done a brilliant job of keeping Flacco safe. Edge: Ravens

Browns Rush Attack vs. Ravens Rush Defense

The Browns 2009 version of Jamal Lewis is not the Jamal Lewis that Ravens fans remember grinding out 2000 yards in 2003 and driving an offense for six seasons. Lewis has continued to have leg injuries since arriving in Cleveland and this year is no different; he did not practice on Thursday and may not play on Sunday. But even with Lewis, the Browns rush attack is less than explosive. Lewis has less than 100 yards in his two games this season and is not even averaging four yards per carry. As a team, the Browns have managed just 41 carries in two games and 143 yards on those attempts. The Browns will be bringing that attack, without Lewis, against the Ravens and the league’s best rush defense. You can’t run through them (think about that, running through Kelly Gregg and Haloti Ngata), and you can’t run around them. And, actually, come to think of it, you may not even be able to run to them. (Click Here) Sorry, couldn’t resist. Edge: Ravens

Browns Pass Attack vs. Ravens Pass Defense

If there’s one spot where the Browns might be able to make some ground against the Ravens, it’s in the air. The Ravens pass defense has been severely suspect in its first two games. Not only did the Ravens allow Philip Rivers to pass for over 400 yards last week, but in Week 1 they allowed the Chiefs and Brodie Croyle to move downfield easily on several occasions. The Ravens corners are small and are still not totally familiar with the team’s system. Add to that a limited pass rush and it’s a formula for big passing days. The question is whether the Browns can capitalize on the Ravens weakness. Brady Quinn can certainly throw the ball, but he’s yet to prove it in the NFL. And receiver Braylon Edwards will give the Ravens trouble downfield – he’s the kind of height/speed combo that caused so many problems in San Diego. But the question is whether the two can connect. Last week they managed to combine for more than 90 yards. If that’s the only damage Quinn can do, the Ravens should be ok. Edge: Even

Special Teams

The Ravens special teams made solid progress last week in San Diego. Steven Hauschka’s kick offs and place kicking both looked solid. Sam Koch had one of the best games of his career. And the Ravens return game began to show signs of life. But the Ravens did struggle to contain Chargers return man Darren Sproles. In Cleveland, the Ravens will have to face the only return man better than Sproles – Josh Cribbs. They’ll also face one of the few kickers more accurate than legend Matt Stover, veteran Phil Dawson. And their own former punter, Dave Zastudil. The Browns special teams could cause problems for the Ravens, but not enough to change the game. Edge: Browns

Intangibles

The Ravens are among the league’s best at home. The Ravens defense is eager to prove that they remember how to defend the pass and make the big play. The whole unit is energized by the finish to last week’s game and the boost in national media coverage this week. The Browns are quickly establishing themselves as the league’s worst team. Eric Mangini is continuing to fight reports that his team despises him.  It all points one way. Edge: Ravens

Prediction

No chance, not close, don’t even hesitate. Actually, my only hesitation is that I hate feeling this confident. But there’s simply no doubt. The Ravens are going to run away with this one. The only questions… Will Harbaugh pull his starters early if things get out of hand? (If he does, will it matter? Troy Smith could handle this defense). Will the Ravens defense score and find its big play ability? Will the Ravens put up more yards on the ground or in the air? Ravens 34, Browns 9