The Ravens have to maintain some substantial possessions to really tire the Broncos defense. That means running the ball and lots of it. And running ball is going to mean great line play (thank goodness Jared Gaither is likely to be back). But also, the Ravens are going to have to give Flacco time to throw and give him receivers to throw to (no more holding Heap in to block). Bottom line: Cam Cameron is going to have to be on his game – we need the perfect mix of smart and fun offense.

2. The Ravens can contain Brandon Marshall. No, seriously, they can. I know, I know… it sounds crazy. But the Ravens contained Randy Moss. They contained Braylon Edwards. They’ve been able to muzzle some good receivers. But only when those receivers don’t have much help. Brandon Marshall is the Broncos only great offensive threat, with their next best receiver being Jabar Gaffney. The Ravens need to double, triple, total cover Marshall and then force Kyle Orton to make other decisions. Period.

3. The Ravens need to start fast. I’ve seen some criticism of Joe Flacco and the offense for not always ‘clicking’ right when a game starts. But really, none of this team has put it together early in games. Flacco’s apparent slow starts are probably just as much a symptom of bad game planning and lots of bench time (thank you, defense) as anything else. The whole team needs to come out in this game like it decides the season… because in many ways it does. When’s the last time we saw the defense start a game with a big turnover? Where are all the turnovers this year, anyway? And when’s the last time we’ve seen the special teams be truly special and set up both the offense and defense for greatness? Put it all together, guys.

Official Prediction: The Ravens figure it out. It may not be pretty or spectacular, but it’s a win. And the home crowd has plenty to do with it. Ravens 27, Broncos 20.

At the end of the first half, and into the third quarter, I was so disgusted by the play from the team, I was pretty sure that I wouldn’t be posting anything about this game for a few days. It wasn’t just the level of play, it was how they were playing.

For the first half of this game, the Ravens looked just weak. Instead of looking like the proud, fiery, intense team we’ve come to love, they looked like a shell of themselves. There seemed to be clear issues on the defense that no one wanted to address… players just left staring at each other.

And all the while we got it rubbed in our face as Brett Favre pushed up and down the field, jumping and smiling like a little kid who’d just picked up a football for the first time. That’s the way the Ravens used to play.

The second half – and the fourth quarter especially – changed that though. Offensively the team was outstanding, of course. But the excitement and intensity of the offense, the electricity of Ray Rice and the subtle confidence of Joe Flacco, seemed to become contagious. The defense found it.

The defense certainly didn’t play lights out and win the game for us, suddenly. They could have, but they didn’t. But they did at least play with a level of confidence that leads me to believe, or at least hope, that they can find some level of greatness again. The feeling was at least familiar.

And even with Steven Hauschka missing that kick, I have to think that the Ravens left the field knowing they didn’t deserve to win that game. They deserved to win the fourth quarter, but not the game. And so perhaps we’ll see that intensity from the very beginning in two weeks when we play Denver. If we do, if this team can play with the heart it was lacking all the while against Cincinnati and for most of the game in Minnesota, there is plenty to look forward to.

He’s not getting the most blame – and he doesn’t deserve the most blame – but someone has to say it. And I will if I have to…

Steven Hauschka: 30%

Like it or not… when you need a field goal to win, a very makeable field goal, in a dome, with no wind or other issues… it needs to be made. That’s the end of it. The end. There’s nothing more to say. Clutch or not. Last minute or not. Field goals matter at all times; this one happened to determine the outcome of the game. Haushcka has to make the kick. The end. Throw blame everywhere else for our position up to that point, but Hauschka  has to make the kick.

In the words of a friend, let’s call it “poetic justice.” The minute Stover is picked up elsewhere, the makeable kick is missed. In all honesty, I love Hauschka and all that he brings to the table… but I was probably giving him better odds than most when I was thinking “this is 50-50…”

Ravens Secondary: 60%

Domonique Foxworth, Fabian Washington, Dawan Landry, Chris Carr, Lardarius Webb, Frank Walker. Frank f’n Walker. We’re looking at you. For the fourth time in six games you all looked worse than bad. You were pathetic. I’m not holding back anymore. I don’t know if you’re just confused or if you simply don’t have the ability, but you are the reason this defense is crumbling. Even the 100-yard rushers connect back to you.

Seriously, Frank, what are you doing? Is it even possible for you to be on the field and NOT have a flag thrown at you. Or not have the QB single you out? And Dawan… on yet another big play you looked absolutely lost. In fact, on one of Favre’s late TDs you almost seemed to be telling Brett to throw it to the man you were simply refusing to cover. Get it together.

Coaching: 10%

The Ravens defensive woes are not solely the fault of the players or the greatness of the opposing offense. Greg Mattison needs to find a way to get this unit to work together. Maybe it’s about getting Samari Rolle on the field. Maybe it’s about getting Paul Kruger on the field. Maybe it’s about play-calling. Whatever it is, do it.

Mattison has been unable to adjust his schemes and his plays to the needs of his players and the strengths of his opponents. Apparently the Ravens are just too easy to read.

Even offensively, Cam Cameron took long enough to find his groove. Had the Ravens started showing life just one possession earlier, perhaps that last kick is less necessary. Nice recovery, though, of course.

Ravens Rush vs. Vikings Defense: The Ravens can run the ball, or so I believe. But the Bengals managed to stop them and they’ve chosen not to run against other opponents. Put that against the Williams crew and the only rush defense that can rival the Ravens. Edge: Even

Ravens Pass vs. Vikings Defense: The loss of Jared Gaither might be hurt more than expected, especially with Jared Allen rushing the corner. The Vikings are talented but Joe Cool and the Ravens can win the match-ups if given time. Edge: Even

Vikings Rush vs. Ravens Defense: The Ravens gave up 100 yards to a single back for the first time in nearly 40 games last week. If there’s any back I fear being able to do that again, it’s probably the Vikings Adrian Peterson. But the Ravens can shut him down if they play up to their ability. Edge: Even

Vikings Pass vs. Ravens Defense: Brett Favre has been throwing the ball like a 35 year old recently (sorry, mandatory age joke taken care of). The Vikings still plan to keep the ball out of Favre’s hands as much as possible though. The Ravens D needs a good rush and a pick-me-up game. Edge: Even

Special Teams: The Ravens are still seeking a solid return man (perhaps Ladarius Webb will get more than a pair of returns this week). Ravens punter Sam Koch continues to make a bid for team MVP (like on most Ravens teams). The Vikings are solid all around. Ryan Longwell is a great veteran kicker. Young’n Percy Harvin is making a splash on returns. The Ravens must contain him.  Edge: Even

Micellaneous: The Ravens have lost two straight (about the same time they lost three straight last year, eh?)… Joe Flacco is still Mr. Unshakable on the road… The Vikings have one of the best home field advantages in the league thanks to the dome… The Vikings are one of five unbeatens left in the league… The combined record the Vikings opponents is 7-17. Edge: Vikings (+1)

Official Prediction

This is about as even as two teams are going to match-up in the NFL; they literally go strength-for-strength, player-for-player. A pair of nice defenses, great running games and a great quarterback match-up. In fact, I’m surprised there isn’t more talk about Flacco and Favre. C’mon, both F names, both undervalued coming out of college… right? Ok, stretch. But Flacco is emerging as one of the game’s best and Favre is trying to hold his value.

This is almost too close to call. I want to believe the Ravens will win this game (and they certainly can if they play to their strengths), but it’s hard to pick a team that has faded in the stretch for two straight games. The Ravens will play well, but it won’t be enough. The rebound will have to wait until after the bye. Vikings 23, Ravens 20.

So far the most popular answer I’ve heard is the Ravens “weak” secondary. Just about everyone is pointing to a secondary that has allowed big numbers to big names. From Foxworth’s lack of physicality to Carr’s stumbles to Walker’s penalties.

In reality, we should be placing blame on every single Ravens player and coach that took the field on Sunday. They all failed. They all had opportunities and they all missed them. What we saw yesterday was exactly the opposite of the sharp, smart and dangerous Ravens teams we have come to know and love.

Following a nasty loss in New England last week, everyone expected the Ravens to bounce back with a vengeance and obliterate the Bengals. Instead, we got a lackluster effort. We got a team that looked too comfortable for its own good and then uncomfortable when it mattered most.

For me, it all starts with coaching. As a team, the Ravens were not ready to play yesterday. Whether it was complacency or disinterest or lack of focus, the Ravens did not walk into M&T Bank Stadium like a team that was ready to win that game. And that falls on the shoulders of John Harbaugh and his staff. No matter how good the Ravens may have looked in week’s past, it is the staff’s job to make sure they are ready to go on gameday. They weren’t.

You could tell on the first few series – the Ravens simply didn’t have their heads in the game. They looked bored.

But aside from the team’s overall lack of intensity, each unit lacked focus and discipline individually.

Offensively, the entire group looked disjointed. I am still unsure of any of Cam Cameron’s game plans. While the Ravens have been impressive at times, they don’t have an offensive identity. After criticism last week for being too pass-happy, it seemed that Cameron came down too far. The Ravens offense was predictable.

The Bengals defense is far improved from years past, but they are not spectacular. The Ravens should have been able to exploit some weaknesses, but they didn’t. That falls on Cameron.

Defensively, everyone is happy to point fingers at the Ravens secondary. And yes, the group has been a weak point this season. Unfortunately, mid-season, there is not a lot to be done about personnel. We’re stuck with who we’ve got. What bothers me more than our personnel failure has been Greg Mattison’s inability to adjust his defensive schemes to help his personnel.

The Ravens shifted their secondary personnel over the last two seasons – away from physicality and towards speed. That’s okay, actually. But you can’t expect a speedy corner to play like a physical corner. Washington, Foxworth and Carr cannot just overpower good receivers, they have to outsmart them. All three corners (four including Frank Walker) have done a fine job running with their man most games – but they have failed at making plays. Foxworth tried his best on Sunday, mauling Chris Henry to draw a pass interference call, and Henry still made the catch and ran 50 yards.

It is up to Mattison and his staff to find a scheme that works for these defensive backs. That’s going to mean teaching them how to find and play the ball, not the man. The Ravens will lose 9 times out of 10 if their DBs try to play the man. And up front, Mattison needs to find a scheme or a personnel package that is able to pressure the quarterback and assist the secondary.

On all three levels of the coaching pyramid the Ravens looked outmatched. It’s not a nice feeling, nor one I want to get used to. The Ravens have the talent – on the field and on the sidelines – to win every game they play. Both sides need to work to make that real.

Offensive Game Ball: Ray Rice. Rice ran fairly well behind an overpowered offensive line and made the offense’s biggest play for its only score. Without him, the Ravens offense doesn’t put a point on the board.

Defensive Game Ball: Ed Reed. Reed played his best game of the year – and it wasn’t just the pick-six or the forced fumble. He actually made some tackles: real tackles, not the kind where he went low to protect himself.

The Half-Assed Ball: Everyone Else. The Ravens were outplayed in every aspect of this game (except long-snapper play). There can be no excuses. The Ravens are better than what they showed yesterday. They have to learn that it’s not just about being a favorite and having the right pieces – you actually have to show up on Sunday.

Next week in Minnesota will be the key… but I expect a very different Ravens team to show up in Cincinnati in a few weeks.

Stupid Penalties: 40%

Second straight week the Ravens can thank themselves and their absolute lack of discipline for their problems. The officials were not good, but that’s not an excuse. The Ravens apparently didn’t learn anything from last week’s game in New England. I’m still a bit baffled by Steve Tasker’s relentless defense of the officiating – the Frank Walker pass interference and Chad Ochocinco lack of interference calls were particularly questionable, and Tasker failed to even acknowledge the possibility. Meanwhile, the Ravens gave away first downs and yards, play after play. [Is defensive illegal formation even a penalty, by the way?]

Stupid Players: 30%

Missed tackles. Missed coverages. Leaving holes wide open. Dropping passes. There are no excuses for the Ravens pathetic play today. As much as players and fans may want to be upset at the officials,  the Ravens came to the game today with no emotion and no heart. Half the game, I wasn’t even sure the defense wanted to be there – the secondary was consistently out of position and failed to find the ball while the front seven struggled to find their zones.

Stupid Gameplan: 20%

Noticing a trend yet? This whole game was stupid by the Ravens. I’m not sure what Cam Cameron’s offensive game plan was today. It’s become more and more clear to me that the offense simply does not have a steady game plan. In early games we dismissed the funky offensive style as “taking advantage of weak opponents,” but in two straight losses to good teams, there has been no “settling” of the gameplan. There were stretches where the Ravens looked far too conservative. At other times the Ravens looked far too aggressive. At no point did the Ravens offense look like the force it had been for the season’s first four weeks.

(Stupid) Disappearing Players: 9%

Derrick Mason. Willis McGahee. Kelley Washington. Terrell Suggs. Kelly Gregg. Fabian Washington. Le’Ron McClain. Were any of these guys even on the field today? Did McGahee even get a touch? Did Mason? Washington and McClain each had a moment or two… but I don’t even remember seeing Washington on the field more than two or three times.

Stupid Steve Tasker: 1%

Okay, so maybe he had nothing to do with the Ravens losing, but he certainly had a lot to do with me not enjoying the game. Gus Johnson is bad. Steve Tasker is just dreadful. I’m not sure how, but he’s actually gotten worse since the Ravens earlier games. Do they even show up before Sunday?

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Ravens Rush vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals rush defense ranks 14th in the league allowing just over 100 yards per game. The Ravens rushing attack is 5th in the league topped 100 yards against the Patriots on just 17 carries. The real question is whether the Ravens will run or not. The Ravens lack of rushing attempts has hurt them several times this season (even in victories). And in limited attempts, stuffing the box on short yardage is that much easier (as the Pats showed). Edge: Ravens +1

Ravens Pass vs. Bengals Defense

The Bengals pass rush has been excellent this year, especially from newly signed Antwaan Odom, who leads the NFL with 8 sacks. As a team, the Bengals have 12 sacks, putting them close to the top of the league. With Jared Gaither unlikely to play for the Ravens, rookie Michael Oher will move to the left side and handle Odom. If the Ravens can contain Odom, they have a good shot. Despite all the pressure, the Bengals have just two interceptions and are 24th in the league in pass defense. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Rush vs. Ravens Defense

Cedric Benson has been one of the league’s strongest runners for the last 10 weeks. No, really. Cedric Benson. But even so, Benson is no match for the Ravens top-ranked rush defense, which is showing true signs of greatness (under 60 yards on the ground per game). The Ravens will have to work to contain Benson and the Bengals, but not too hard. Edge: Ravens +1

Bengals Pass vs. Ravens Defense

The Bengals passing attack is not the monster it once was, but it is still a weapon. Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson are a dangerous combination when they get on the same page. Lucky for the Ravens, their defense has shown the ability to shut down a single big receiver when necessary. The Ravens will double Johnson and minimize his impact… they hope. The bigger question is can the Ravens force Palmer into making mistakes? He’s not a mistake-prone kind of guy. Edge: Even

Special Teams

Both units have been pretty sad. The Ravens have improved their kick coverage dramatically and their punt game is fantastic, but their returns have been weak and costly. The Bengals bring one of the league’s worst return defenses to Baltimore, opening up the possibility for some big plays. Edge: Even

Intangibles

The Ravens are great at home… the Bengals have been good at coming from behind and closing out games late, and they’ve done it before against the Ravens… the Ravens are hot after last week’s close loss to the Pats… the Bengals have been winning games they don’t deserve to win… Hmmm Edge: Ravens (+.5)

Prediction

My edge game has the Ravens +3.5… which, using this entirely not scientific or even empirical method, should mean a big win for the Ravens. The Ravens look to be the better team in every facet of their game. That might be purely based on match-ups (maybe the Bengals just match-up better against the Steelers for some reason?) or it might be that the Bengals don’t fit my match-ups mold. I don’t think the Bengals fit anyone’s molds. Their so close to 4-0 and in such crazy ways. That scares me.

Ravens 37, Bengals 13

1. Carson Palmer can beat the Ravens.

The Carson Palmer of 2009 may not be in the same form we’ve come to know, but he is still Carson Palmer. And Carson Palmer has the ability to throw the ball all over the Ravens when he’s feeling good. He’s done it before.

Overall, in nine games against the Ravens, Palmer has a quarterback rating of 87.6 with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Not outstanding, but not shabby either.

But those numbers are skewed a bit. Palmer either plays his best or his worst against Baltimore. Palmer has six games against the Ravens with a QB Rating over 90 – in four of those games his QB rating is well over 100. In the other three games, his rating is under 60. There’s no middle ground.

Again, this year’s Palmer may not be able to do that – the Bengals are not the offensive force they once were. But if he’s done it before, he can do it again.

2. The Bengals are… Special.

Special. That’s a nice way to put it, right? The Bengals are 3-1, and short of a fluke play in Denver in Week One, they would be undefeated. Against the Broncos, Packers and Steelers, that’s impressive.

But the Bengals have also been, well, special. They’re three wins are by a combined 13 points. Their last two games were won by the same score, 23-20, and both with late game-saving touchdown drives.

Statistically, they’re completely average: 21st in total offense and 17th in total defense. Technically, that’s almost worse than average. And all despite starting “so strong” defensively.

Even Chad Johnson has been ’special’ this season. Two touchdowns last week but just three total catches. He’s been in and out all season long.

So what does all this mean? Um… not sure. It means that the Bengals winning games the hard way, but they are still winning games. So take it easy.

3.The Ravens Rebound.

For the first time this season the Ravens are playing after a loss. They’re also playing after a bit of a sour loss. The Ravens generally held their own in New England, but plenty of short-comings were exposed.

A good Ravens victory this week should have a number of changes from last week… (1) more rushing, , (2) improved returns, (3) a terrorizing defense in-control of itself.

That last one is the one to really keep an eye on. Can the Ravens continue to harass quarterbacks while keeping control of the penalties? If they relent, will the defense still be able to control opposing offenses?

I guess the bottom line here is that we are still waiting for an absolutely complete game from the Ravens – against someone other than the Browns. The Bengals provide that opportunity. Can the Ravens take it?

Today as power rankings are released we’re already seeing the Ravens fall a bit, but not too far. ESPN has the Ravens 7th, right behind New England.

Run the Damn Ball, Cam. I’m still trying to decide whether the Ravens failure to run the ball was the result of in-game panic or just a bad game plan. My bet is a bit of both, with a pinch of “inability to adjust” as well. Cameron’s game plan was to pass frequently. As much as we may not like that in hindsight, it actually worked fairly well for most of the game. Minus a Joe Flacco miscommunication leading to an interception, the passing game looked alright.

But the pass-favored attack was made worse by an early deficit. Last year one of the Ravens’ greatest strengths was that they never panicked, even when down early. On Sunday, it seemed quite the opposite. Some early scoring by the Pats had the Ravens scattered.

Finally, even when the Ravens seemed to regain some control over the game in the second half, they failed to reset themselves and their gameplan. One big reason to run the ball is not just to balance the defense, but even a mediocre run nets yardage. 3rd and 7 looks so much friendlier than 3rd and 10.

The Refs. Still not a fan of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed mouthing off – even if I agree with the broader sentiment that quarterbacks are overprotected. And I’m not a fan of John Harbaugh getting in on the action, even in a more subdued, passive way than he did on the field.

It has been interesting, however, to see the national reaction to the Terrell Suggs personal foul in particular. No one seems to like it. In a Baltimore Sun article today the wording of the rule was emphasized – contact to the quarterback below the knee must be forcible to warrant a penalty. Suggs’ contact certainly wasn’t forcible.

I’ve heard it argued that had Brady not moved his leg, it would have been much worse. But last I checked, the NFL didn’t give penalties for almost pass interference and almost facemasks. It’s a fast game, what looks like it could be a penalty one instant can very clearly change.